Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KATHMANDU761
2007-04-13 11:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:  

PRIME MINISTER SAYS ELECTION DELAY LIKELY,

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER PHUM PREF MASS ETRD IN BT NP 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 000761 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM PREF MASS ETRD IN BT NP
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER SAYS ELECTION DELAY LIKELY,
REAFFIRMS REFUGEE RESETTLEMENT

REF: NEW DELHI 1622

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty for reasons 1.4(b/d).

Summary
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 000761

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM PREF MASS ETRD IN BT NP
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER SAYS ELECTION DELAY LIKELY,
REAFFIRMS REFUGEE RESETTLEMENT

REF: NEW DELHI 1622

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty for reasons 1.4(b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Prime Minister Koirala told the Ambassador April 13
that an election delay was likely. The Ambassador
acknowledged that free and fair elections now would be
difficult, noting that security in the country remained poor
and marginalized ethnic groups continued to feel excluded
from the political process. The PM believed that the Nepal
Police were not effectively enforcing the law because they
were ill-equipped. He had asked India to provide them with
10,000 weapons. Koirala also hoped the U.S. might provide
rifles to Nepali peacekeepers in Haiti to allow an equivalent
transfer of guns from the army to the police. The Ambassador
opined that the police suffered less from poor equipment and
more from a lack of confidence in their leadership.
Moreover, importing weapons would violate the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement. The PM said he had approved the King's New
Year speech, which the Ambassador feared the Maoists would
use as an excuse to take to the streets, oust the King, and
gut the Nepal Army. Although Koirala stressed he would
continue to seek repatriation of the Bhutanese refugees to
Bhutan, he agreed that resettlement could proceed
simultaneously. The Ambassador noted that U.S. buyers of
Nepali carpets were pulling out of Nepal due to Maoist
interference in the carpet industry.

Election Delay Likely
--------------


2. (C) Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala told the
Ambassador April 13 that the Chief Election Commissioner had
sent him a letter stating that a Constituent Assembly
election in June would not be possible. (Note: Before the PM
entered the room, his foreign policy advisor Dr. Suresh
Chalise said that an election delay was likely. End Note.)

The Ambassador asked whether elections might occur before the
Dasain festival. The PM worried that the monsoon rains would
make communication and campaigning difficult. The Ambassador
pointed out that Dasain this year would occur later than
usual -- in mid-October (roughly 4-5 weeks after the end of
the monsoon) -- and suggested that a long election delay
could derail the peace process. The PM acknowledged that he
was also concerned about a long delay and claimed that he was
the only leader who really wanted elections to happen soon --
in his case, because of his fragile health. Chalise stated
that not only the Election Commission (EC),but also the UN,
believed an election delay was necessary. Both the EC and UN
had cited technical and security obstacles to a free and fair
election, Chalise added.

Security Remains Poor
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador acknowledged that free and fair
elections now would be difficult since security in the
countryside remained poor and marginalized ethnic groups
continued to feel excluded from the political process. A
U.S. NGO (National Democratic Institute) had recently
concluded that political party activists could not work
freely in 80 percent of Nepal's districts, due to both Maoist
threats and instability in the Terai. Moreover, the Maoists
had not turned in additional weapons since joining the
Interim Government, the Ambassador added. The PM said that,
during his trip to Pokhara April 9, he had also heard that
political party workers were unable to campaign and work
freely. Chalise noted that the Home Minister had issued a
deadline for Maoists to turn in their weapons to the UN and
now it was up to the local and district administrators to

KATHMANDU 00000761 002 OF 004


enforce the law. The Ambassador worried that, because the
Nepal Police did not trust the Home Minister to back them up
against the Maoists, the police would be unwilling to seize
Maoist arms and make arrests. Koirala said that he had told
Maoist Chairman Prachanda that unregistered Maoist arms
needed to be submitted to the UN; if the police raided Maoist
houses and seized weapons, the Maoists would be in a
difficult position.

Need To Equip Nepal Police
--------------


4. (C) The Prime Minister believed that one reason the Nepal
Police were not effectively enforcing the law was because
they lacked sufficient weapons. The PM stated that he had
discussed this with Assistant Secretary Richard Boucher in
New Delhi, who he said had agreed to take the request back to
Washington (reftel). The PM said he might ask the Nepal Army
(NA) to transfer weapons to the police if the U.S. could
re-supply the NA with weapons by delivering the weapons to
Nepali peacekeepers in Haiti. Chalise added that it would be
easier to deploy the Nepal Police than the NA. The
Ambassador noted that, even if that were possible, the
weapons would need ammunition, which would require overflight
clearance from the Government of India (GOI). Moreover, the
Comprehensive Peace Agreement specifically prohibited either
party from importing arms or ammunition. The PM said he had
asked the Indians to provide 10,000 weapons to the Nepal
Police for the maintenance of law and order. But, he
complained, "I don't know what the Government of India wants
or does not want these days. Sometimes it's like I'm dealing
with two different (Indian) governments."

Police Lack Leadership Most, Ambassador Says
--------------


5. (C) The Ambassador opined that the Nepal Police suffered
less from poor equipment and more from lack of confidence in
their leadership. He did not accept the hypothesis that the
police, particularly the Armed Police Force, were outarmed by
the Maoists. The Ambassador noted, in particular, that the
retention of Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula in the
Interim Government had reinforced the police perception that
the government would not back them up if they took any
concrete action against the Maoists. He added that keeping
Sitaula as Home Minister had also insulted the Madhesis and
led them to believe that the government cared more for the
Maoists than for them. The Maoist who had shot and killed
the Madhesi youth Ramesh Mahato in Lahan in January (which
had sparked massive unrest in the Terai) and the Maoists who
had kidnapped and beaten Woodlands Hotel owner Hari Lal
Shrestha in March remained at large even though the Maoists
themselves had admitted they had committed these crimes. If
even those Maoists were not held to account, how could the
police have confidence in enforcing law and order, the
Ambassador concluded.

PM Has Cleared King's New Year Speech
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador noted that the second package of
amendments to the Interim Constitution, if passed, would
provide the Maoists with the means to remove the King even
before a Constituent Assembly election. He warned that the
Maoists might then push for "reform" of the NA and, in the
process, would seek to control the army. The Ambassador said
he hoped that the PM had urged the King not to deliver a
public speech on the occasion of the Nepali New Year ending
April 13. The PM replied sharply that he had cleared the
language of the King's speech and that he did not anticipate
the King's remarks would cause a problem. The Ambassador
suggested that the Maoists would use any speech, no matter
what its content, to criticize the King and take to the

KATHMANDU 00000761 003 OF 004


streets. The PM remarked, "Our army is with us and we can
use them. We have told the Maoists that once they declare a
republic, the King would have to be brought to the Parliament
building. Who will bring him? The Maoists? The Royal
Army?"

Green Light for Bhutanese Refugee Resettlement
-------------- -


7. (SBU) The Prime Minister asked how many Bhutanese refugees
might be included in a third-country resettlement program.
The Ambassador said that the U.S. had offered to accept
60,000, Canada and Australia had indicated perhaps 5,000 each
and other, European countries might each accept a few hundred
each. The PM (in Nepali) commented that refugees should
first be repatriated to Bhutan. The Ambassador asked whether
Nepal would insist that repatriation occur before
resettlement began. Chalise said he would discuss it with
the Foreign Ministry and provide a response within a week.
The Ambassador responded firmly that Koirala had given a
clear go ahead on more than one occasion and, on that basis,
the U.S. had made serious resource commitments. After a
brief one-on-one between Chalise and the PM, Chalise said,
"yes, you can proceed." Chalise told the Prime Minister (in
Nepali) that the government could continue to push Bhutan to
repatriate the residual refugee population which did not
elect for resettlement.

Nepal's Carpet Industry To Take a Dive
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador provided the PM with a letter that
detailed the problems U.S. rug importers had experienced
recently at the hands of the Maoists and urged the GON to
take action. He noted that a leading U.S. importer of Nepali
rugs had recently expressed worries that Maoist extortion and
the forced hiring of unqualified Maoist laborers were
crippling the industry. Both the quality and timeliness of
the finished product had dropped dramatically in recent
months. Her buyers were losing interest and, therefore, she
was considering pulling out of Nepal completely. The
Ambassador warned that the carpet industry, which employed
50,000 people in Kathmandu Valley, would die within one year
if nothing were done to address Maoist interference. The PM
did not respond, but nodded his head in acknowledgment.

Comment: Plan Not Apparent
--------------


9. (C) The Prime Minister appears ready to announce a delay
in the Constituent Assembly election. While we don't believe
the PM is interested in a long election delay, he seems to
have given little consideration to an alternate timeframe.
We also do not believe that giving more weapons to the police
will ensure effective law enforcement. As long as Home
Minister Sitaula leaves known Maoist criminals to roam the
streets, there will be little hope for law and order. Unlike
Koirala, we worry that the Maoists will use any speech by the
King, no matter how benign, to create chaos and confusion in
the capital. Any move to oust the King and "reform" the
Nepal Army would likely be a precursor to an outright
takeover attempt by the Maoists.

Comment: Bhutanese Refugees
--------------


10. C) The Prime Minister remains interested in pushing
Bhutan to repatriate a number of refugees, but seems to
understand that he cannot resist pressure from the
international community to move now on resettlement. The
Core Group members in Kathmandu plan to follow up with a
joint meeting with the Home and Foreign Ministers, which
Chalise has also agreed to attend, to discuss the way forward.

KATHMANDU 00000761 004 OF 004



MORIARTY