Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KATHMANDU168
2007-01-25 09:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:  

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER OLI WORRIED ABOUT NEPAL'S

Tags:  PGOV PTER PREL PREF PINR BT NP 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000168 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PREF PINR BT NP
SUBJECT: DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER OLI WORRIED ABOUT NEPAL'S
FUTURE

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000168

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PREF PINR BT NP
SUBJECT: DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER OLI WORRIED ABOUT NEPAL'S
FUTURE

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) In a hospital bedside conversation with the Ambassador
January 23, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister K.P.
Oli expressed his grave concern about Nepal's political
situation. Oli stressed that the Maoists had not given up
their goal of capturing state power. He stated that it was
unacceptable to have a Maoist as Prime Minister Koirala's
designated successor. His own Communist Party of Nepal --
United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) was the appropriate party
to provide an alternative heir apparent, but who? The Deputy
PM was sharply critical of several of his party leaders. Oli
indicated he was unsure if he would retain a position in the
Interim Government, but was hoping to return to his work as
Foreign Minister in the meanwhile, health permitting. Once
he recovered he planned, he said, to travel to Thailand for
additional treatment. Oli stated that he had just entered
the hospital after being ill for a month with typhoid and
hepatitis. The Ambassador confirmed that the UN Security
Council was supposed to adopt a resolution on Nepal later the
same day. He also passed on a fact sheet regarding the U.S.
Government's planned Bhutanese resettlement program.

Oli Troubled By Continuing Maoist Abuses
--------------


2. (C) On January 23, from his bed in the cardiac ward of
Kathmandu's Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital, Deputy
Prime Minister and Foreign Minister K.P. Oli voiced his fears
to the Ambassador about Nepal's future. He and the
Ambassador agreed that the Maoists had not given up their
goal of capturing state power and showed no signs of a
genuine conversion to democratic norms. The Maoists
continued to violate their peace commitments by threatening
party cadre from the democratic parties as well as Nepali
citizens and were preventing the re-establishment of police
posts in many districts, Oli stressed. Meanwhile, they faced

no sanctions for their misdeeds. Politicians wanted to be
popular so they did not speak out against the Maoists. The
security situation had not improved, for which the Deputy PM
leveled blame at Home Minister Sitaula, who wanted to please
the Maoists. Oli also criticized PM Koirala's nephew and
confidant, Dr. Shehkar Koirala, as another person whose
naivete as a peace negotiator had contributed to Maoist
impunity.

Maoist Deputy PM Unacceptable
--------------


3. (C) Deputy Prime Minister Oli unequivocally rejected the
idea of a Maoist Deputy Prime Minister in an interim
government: How could the member of a party which had not yet
given up its terrorist ways be allowed to become the
successor to Prime Minister Koirala? To begin with, Oli
noted, Koirala was not well, so the Deputy PM would probably
be required to fill in for the PM at the South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in New
Delhi in April as well as any Bay of Bengal Initiative for
Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)
summit. More importantly, if PM Koirala died, Oli added,
under the Interim Constitution the Maoist Deputy PM would
automatically succeed Koirala. There had to be a senior
Deputy PM from one of other parties to prevent any Maoist
Deputy PM from grabbing the reins of power. The President of
the Nepali Congress (NC),which was the largest party in the
Interim Parliament, namely Koirala, already had the top job,
so NC was out. Nepali Congress - Democratic, Oli said, was a
splinter group of the NC and far smaller than Oli's own
Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML).
CPN-UML was the appropriate party to provide the senior
Deputy PM, Oli concluded.

Challenge of Finding a CPN-UML Deputy PM
--------------


4. (C) Oli had little good to say about most of the senior

KATHMANDU 00000168 002 OF 002


CPN-UML leaders. He described newly appointed Member of
Parliament Bamdev Gautam as untrustworthy and apt to follow
whatever policy the Maoists adopted. The Deputy PM
characterized CPN-UML Central Committee leader Bohat Mohan
Adhikari as opportunistic and unreliable. He was also
sharply critical of another new CPN-UML MP, Jhalanath Khanal,
whom he accused of nearly leaving the party -- along with
Bamdev Gautam and United Left Front chairman C.P. Mainali --
several years earlier to form another, more leftist party.
According to Oli, most of the CPN-UML leaders put their
personal interests above the country's. This was not the
case, the DPM stated, with CPN-UML General Secretary M.K.
Nepal. Nepal's problem was that he had no concrete opinions:
his view on any issue depended on which view he had most
recently heard. If a CPN-UML candidate did not end up as the
senior Deputy PM, Oli indicated it would be better for the
CPN-UML to stay out of the interim government. It would be
intolerable to take instructions from the Maoists.

Oli To Continue?
--------------


5. (C) In response to a question from the Ambassador about
Oli's own plans, the Deputy PM replied that he hoped to
return to his work as Foreign Minister as soon as he was
able. His immediate goal, once he had recovered sufficiently
to travel, was to go to Thailand for additional treatment.
The Ambassador encouraged him to do so. Oli bemoaned that he
had been sick for over a month. He had developed typhoid
which had led to jaundice and that he had been recently
diagnosed with Hepatitis B. The Deputy PM told the
Ambassador that the problem was he would get a little better
and then have a relapse, which was why he had checked himself
into the hospital that same day. He expressed his
frustration that he was sick at a time when so much was
happening and so much needed to be done. He remarked that,
when he was healthy, he was able to balance out the far-left
elements in the party. Until he recovered he was unable to
play that role.

Other Issues
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador took the opportunity of the hospital
visit to pass on photos of Oli with the Secretary from Oli's
visit to Washington in September. The Deputy PM was
delighted to see them. He also previewed the planned
adoption by the UN Security Council later that same day of a
resolution on Nepal. Oli seemed aware that the resolution
was pending but not that its passage was so imminent and
expressed his pleasure at the news. Finally, the Ambassador
passed on a copy of the fact sheet on U.S. plans to resettle
up to 60,000 Bhutanese refugees resident in Nepal.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Deputy Prime Minister Oli has played a crucial role in
the current government. While he has often expressed regret
to us that Prime Minister Koirala paid little attention to
his recommendations and even refused to return his phone
calls, other sources have told us that Koirala highly valued
Oli's advice. A former leftist revolutionary who became a
democrat and was imprisoned for his political beliefs, Oli's
political credentials are solid. The Deputy PM has
repeatedly put his country's interests first, even at risk to
himself, most notably through his outspoken criticism of
Maoist abuses. If, as expected, Oli does leave the
government after the Maoists join it, it will be Nepal's
loss. We hope that he will recover quickly from his illness
so he can fulfill a moderating role within his own party in
the coming weeks and strengthen the Prime Minister's resolve
to hold firm against unreasonable demands from the Maoists.
MORIARTY