MK NEPAL CONFIRMS NO LEFT ALLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001347

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2017
TAGS: PREL ECON PREF PTER KDEM BT NP
SUBJECT: MK NEPAL CONFIRMS NO LEFT ALLIANCE

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) On July 10, MK Nepal, General Secretary of the
Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML),
reported to the Ambassador that his party had finished a 15
day party meeting at which the party members had discussed
the conditions for the election in the countryside. Nepal
told the Ambassador the UML had rejected the proposal of
several members with "extreme views" to form an alliance with
Maoists. The party General Secretary stressed that the UML
would continue to push for the declaration of a republic and
abolition of the monarchy and admitted that the behavior of
the Maoist Young Communist League continued to be a problem.


UML Discusses Conditions for Election at 15 Day Party Meeting
-------------- --------------


2. (C) In a farewell call by the Ambassador on July 10, MK
Nepal, General Secretary of the Communist Party of
Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML),reported that his
party had finished a 15-day marathon meeting on July 9 to
prepare for the November Constituent Assembly (CA) election.
Nepal conceded that 15 days was too long, but he explained
that the meeting had a "democratic environment" where each
member was invited to express their views; this took time.
Discussions involved the conditions for the elections in the
districts throughout the country. Nepal informed the
Ambassador that the CPN-UML's five-year party convention,
originally scheduled for September, would be delayed until
February, to give the party members more time to prepare for
the November election.

Maoist: Friend or Foe?
--------------


3. (C) Nepal stated that the Maoists were an issue for the
UML and conceded that there were several members with
"extreme views" who had suggested an alliance with Maoists.
He confirmed that the UML had rejected the possibility of an
alliance with the Maoist because it would jeopardize the
unity of the eight parties. Nepal commented that the Maoists
could not be trusted and had a habit of manipulating people
to serve their needs. The Ambassador told him that he
believed the Maoists had lost much of their support in the
countryside. The Ambassador revealed that in the Karnali
region the Maoists had attempted to bar an election awareness
program in one-third of the villages, but had been
unsuccessful in every attempt. The Ambassador suggested that
this was a sign that the Maoist presence in the countryside
had diminished and now would be an excellent time for the
other political parties to return to the villages.

MK Nepal Still Worried about the Monarchy
--------------


4. (C) The UML leader stressed that his party would continue
to push for the declaration of a democratic republic and the
abolition of the monarchy. Nepal explained to the Ambassador
that the nation was polarized in two camps: the King's
supporters and the democratic forces. The Ambassador
responded that the King was no longer a threat as he has no
credibility and no longer controlled the Nepal Army. On the
other hand, assuming that the Maoists should be included in a
"democratic camp" was a much bigger problem. The Ambassador
highlighted that Maoist leader Mohan Baidya (Kiran) had
recently admitted in public that the Maoists were still
training guerrilla fighters -- a clear indication that at
least some Maoists were ready to use violence to take power.
Nepal acknowledged that the Maoist Young Communist League's
(YCL) use of violence was a serious problem.

Verification, the Terai and the Future
--------------


5. (C) Nepal questioned the Ambassador about the delay in the
UNMIN verification process in the cantonment camps. In

KATHMANDU 00001347 002 OF 002


response to these concerns, the Ambassador shared that the
Maoists were reportedly upset because UMNIM had disqualified
on the grounds that they were new recruits or children larger
numbers of the alleged combatants than the Maoists had
anticipated on the grounds that they were new recruits or
children. The Ambassador told Nepal that he believed that
most of the problems in the Terai could be solved through
political dialogue. He stressed that it was important to
isolate the extremists as it would be very dangerous if their
views and actions became mainstream. The Ambassador told
Nepal that he was more optimistic now than he had been since
he arrived in Nepal and that if the process that had been put
in place was implemented reasonably well, it would set the
country on a path toward peace and stability. But, the
Ambassador emphasized, the election had to be held in
November as scheduled. The Ambassador suggested that the
biggest question was what the Maoists would do when they
realized they were looking toward an election that they could
not win. Nepal thanked the Ambassador and said that the
Ambassador had played an important role in the people's mass
movement in Nepal. Nepal stressed that the support of the
international community had been and would continue to be
very important for his country.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) MK Nepal is consistently inconsistent when it comes to
the Maoists. He clearly does not trust them, yet seemingly
would not rule out an alliance with them if it would increase
the UML's position and his own power. The seven-party
alliance could be much stronger if the UML took a solid
stance on the Maoists and gave up its paranoia about the
monarchy. However, past experience suggests that the UML
leader will continue to play sides he sees beneficial to his
own quest for power.
HUGINS