MQM LEADERS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KARACHI 000861

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PK
SUBJECT: MQM LEADERS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTIONS,
RELATIONSHIP WITH PPP

Classified By: Kay Anske, Consul General, reasons 1.4 (c),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) leaders
discussed their election plans at a meeting with the Consul
General (CG) at their party headquarters on December 13,

2007. The MQM sees itself as a national party and will field
candidates throughout Pakistan. Party leaders have been in
close contact with the Pakistan People,s Party (PPP) and
feel that the relationship between the two parties is
improving. The Deputy Convener said he expected the
elections to be peaceful but is concerned that the Jamaat
Islami (JI) and the Awami National Party (ANP) may try to
disrupt the process. MQM leaders appear confident about
their election prospects and the party is likely to maintain
its political control over Karachi. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) Deputy Convener Dr.
Farooq Sattar and other party leaders met with the Consul
General (CG) at the party headquarters in Karachi, on
December 13, 2007. Dr. Sattar described the party,s
political platform and election strategy. Their manifesto,
titled &Empowerment for All,8 will be released later on
December 13 and focuses on the Three Ps of Peace, Progress,
and Prosperity. Their manifesto is consistent with their
rhetoric and has sections on provincial autonomy and agrarian
reforms along with education, health, and development.


3. (SBU) The party is trying to move beyond its traditional
strongholds in urban Sindh and will field candidates across
the nation. They have 122 National Assembly candidates and
226 Provincial Assembly with the majority from Sindh and
Punjab. Dr. Sattar said the MQM is making solid progress in
Punjab and claimed that Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q)
President Chaudhry Shujaat called him on December 12 to
complain about growing MQM influence in the province.


4. (C) Dr. Sattar said the MQM has been in contact with the
other political parties, especially the Pakistan People,s
Party (PPP). Altaf Hussain called Benazir Bhutto on October
19 to offer condolences for the suicide blast during her
return rally. That conversation led to a rapprochement and
the parties have been involved in unpublicized high level
communication. While Benazir and Altaf have not spoken
again, their close advisors in London have been in contact,
said Sattar. Because of this communication, the PPP is now
willing to deal with the MQM as a moderate national party
instead of a regional adversary.


5. (C) The MQM has reached out to other political parties
to a lesser extent. The Head of the Media Wing, Haider Abbas
Rizvi, said that they are happy to engage with all political
parties and have offered to form a committee with the other
parties to monitor the elections and deal with complaints.
If such committees were formed at the district level, he
said, they could resolve difficulties and promote fair
elections.


6. (C) Dr. Sattar said they have not been in contact with
the Jamaat Islami (JI),Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N),
or the Awami National Party (ANP). He also said that part of
the reason the JI is boycotting the elections is because
people have grown weary of their religious ideology. Because
of the boycott, the MQM is concerned that the JI might try to
disrupt the elections. They are also concerned about
violence from the ANP. Dr. Sattar said that ANP leader Shahi
Syed is trying to exploit the ethnic fault line between
Karachi,s Pakhtoons and Mohajirs. These communities have a
long history of violence that was exacerbated during
Karachi,s May 12 violence when close to fifty people were
killed and the MQM was accused of targeting ANP supporters.


7. (SBU) The MQM leaders were confident in their electoral
prospects. Members of their Central Committee stressed their
organizational strengths and large number of party workers
and supporters. They hope to station two volunteer polling
agents at each polling booth at each polling station in Sindh
and will rely on their workers to get people out to vote.
The party is organized vertically through the district, town,
and street level and those in charge at each level will
facilitate the voters.


8. (SBU) Dr. Sattar said their workers will also help
maintain the peace and that they have been instructed not to
respond to any provocations. Along with international
observers and the media, their workers will also promote free
and fair elections. While it is unlikely all polling
stations will be free from fraud, Dr. Sattar stressed that
the losing parties should accept the results and not falsely
claim the election was rigged.

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9. (C) COMMENT: The leaders, electoral optimism is well
founded. The MQM is the best-organized party in Karachi and
is best able to bring its supporters out to the polls. If
the JI boycotts the elections, the MQM could sweep the
elections in the city. However, a boycott could result in JI
supporters interfering with the electoral process and lead to
violence between these bitter rivals. There is also a real
possibility of violence between the ANP and the MQM.
Pakhtoons and Mohajirs have a violent history in Karachi and
the ANP holds the MQM responsible for the deaths of their
party workers on May 12.
ANSKE