Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KAMPALA744
2007-05-02 07:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kampala
Cable title:  

UGANDA: IF A TREE FALLS IN MABIRA FOREST, WHO WILL

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL SENV UG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8679
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 000744 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SENV UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: IF A TREE FALLS IN MABIRA FOREST, WHO WILL
HEAR IT?

Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)
.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 000744

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SENV UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: IF A TREE FALLS IN MABIRA FOREST, WHO WILL
HEAR IT?

Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)
.


1. (C) Summary: The April 12 and 17 violence associated
with the campaign to stop the sale of land in the Mabira
Forest to foreign investors continues to reverberate
throughout Uganda's political arena. Five people died after
frustrations were taken out on Asians during violent
confrontations. Uganda's political players are preoccupied
with their next moves in the wake of the violence. President
Museveni and Minister of Security Amama Mbabazi tried to
reassure the Asian community of its security and continue to
crack down on dissenters. Opposition leaders continue to
seek ways to provoke or embarrass the Executive. Foreign
investors are concerned that Uganda's political situation
could deteriorate if the current trajectory holds. Embassy
officials continue to urge restraint and dialogue in our
interactions with Government and opposition officials. Even
if Mabira Forest land is saved, the fall-out from the
demonstrations has implications for key players and
institutions. End Summary.

- - - - - - -
FOR MUSEVENI
- - - - - - -


2. (C) The Mabira Forest demonstrations, coming on the heels
of the High Court siege on March 1, have increased Museveni's
unease with multipartyism and political dissent, according to
a wide range of observers. His speeches reveal deep distrust
of the opposition, dissenters within the ruling party, and
the independent media. On April 19, Museveni stated that the
Mabira Forest protest was "organized by fascists pretending
to be democrats." In other public statements, Museveni
referred to the protest participants as "criminals."
Museveni placed the bulk of the blame for the violence on the
opposition--especially Kizza Besigye and his Forum for
Democratic Change (FDC)--rather than the criminals that took
advantage of the protest march to loot and kill. Museveni's
focus on opposition parties could be underestimating other
relevant, and potentially destabilizing factors. Some
observers believe that the violence on April 12 and 17 was

the result of frustration with Museveni and his policies
which appear to favor regime insiders, including foreign
businesses, over indigenous investors. The Asian victims
became easily identifiable scapegoats.


3. (C) The President's failure to convince Ugandans that the
key to the country's development was to give away land to
regime cronies cannot be blamed on the political opposition
and media alone. The Executive has ignored a public
perception that super-wealthy Indian businessmen were
benefiting from sweetheart business deals in exchange for
financial support during elections. These businessmen are
rumored to be closely connected to the President, his family,
and historical members of the National Resistance Movement
(NRM). The reportedly poor treatment Ugandan workers receive
at the hands of Indian employers is a source of resentment
for many Ugandans struggling to earn a meager living. Added
to this, the high levels of resentment among the urban
unemployed boil over in the streets of Kampala during public
gatherings. The GOU makes no efforts to seek genuine
dialogue to alleviate the sources of tension.


4. (C) President Museveni may have to back down on the
planned forest give-away in the face of widespread public
opposition. Various sources tell us that he will likely use
the Cabinet, which reportedly opposes the give-away, and an
agreement with the World Bank on the Bujagali Dam that
requires protection of Mabira Forest to justify his reversal
on the deal to Mehta Group. Given the recent New Vision poll
of parliamentarians that indicated that 72 percent of NRM MPs
opposed the give-away, Museveni is unlikely to push the issue
in Parliament. Nonetheless, publicly, Museveni will continue
to advocate his belief that Uganda must exploit all of its
natural resources and support foreign investment to become an
industrialized country. While many Ugandans agree that the
country should maximize the use of its resources, they are
highly suspicious of deals that appear to favor foreign over
Ugandan investors.

- - - - - - - - - - -
FOR THE RULING PARTY
- - - - - - - - - - -


5. (C) The Mabira Forest issue is one of many that is
widening divisions within the ruling party between the
"historicals" who have remained in the NRM and the next
generation of NRM politicians. The constant references of
the remaining historicals to accomplishments during the bush
war and their perceived arrogance have worn thin on the

KAMPALA 00000744 002 OF 003


rank-and-file party members. Museveni's refusal to announce
that he will not run in the next election and alleged plan to
extend the presidential term to ten years have created
opposing camps within the party and spurred jockeying to
succeed him. The non-historicals resent the imposition of
the party discipline mechanism, whereby the NRM
parliamentarians debate issues freely within the party
caucus, but must vote along party lines on the floor of
Parliament. When contentious issues bubble up in Parliament,
such as a report questioning Government actions during the
High Court siege, the NRM historicals have quashed them by
threatening committee members with financial ruin.
Nonetheless, Museveni was unable to force MPs to drop their
demands for cash to buy vehicles in February. The recent New
Vision poll indicates that Museveni could suffer a similar
fate if the Mabira Forest debate goes to Parliament.

- - - - - - - - - -
FOR THE OPPOSITION
- - - - - - - - - -


6. (C) The Mabira Forest debate turned into a partisan issue
for the GOU because the demonstration was organized by
members of the opposition. FDC members, in particular,
seized the Mabira Forest issue as another platform from which
to challenge the government and capitalize on popular
sentiment. The politicization of the issue makes it more
difficult for Museveni and the security apparatus to back
down or make concessions. The violence associated with the
April 12 and 17 protest bolsters the Executive's argument
that protests in public places should not be allowed. Press
reports indicate that the violence has strengthened the hand
of intelligence chief, Gen. David Tinyefuza, who has taken
over coordination of police and security bodies. This move
not only stifles voices of moderation within the security
forces, but portends a deepening of the government crackdown
on its opponents.


7. (C) The transformation of the issue into a partisan one
denied the political parties an opportunity to forge a
unified strategy on an issue of national importance. Polls
show that many NRM officials oppose the forest give-away, but
the interjection of the FDC into the fray, means that
sympathizers cannot voice their dissent because they fear
being linked to the President's enemies. While the FDC's
confrontational tactics are popular with the party's
established base, especially urban unemployed with nothing to
lose, its unyielding militancy hinders the party from
attracting new members from the growing number of disaffected
Ugandans, who would have a lot to lose if they went into the
streets to protest.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FOR RULE OF LAW...RULE BY LAW
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


8. (C) The Executive has increased its use of intimidation,
through the use of the law and other means, to crack down on
the political opposition in the aftermath of protests over
the Mabira Forest give-away and the High Court siege. For
example, plainclothes security officers surrounded the homes
of the MPs in the late evening of April 14 even though the
Government could not arrest them until the Speaker of the
House was notified the next day. The GOU's hardliners pushed
for stiff charges. However, the Director of Public
Prosecutions refused to sign the original charge sheet, which
included terrorism and murder charges. Several diplomatic
missions, including this one, told government officials that
treason, terrorism, and murder charges would appear
politically-motivated. Since the protest, twenty persons,
including five members of parliament and twelve political
party activists, have been arrested on charges ranging from
unlawful assembly and incitement to violence to murder.


9. (C) Government intimidation of opposition members, ruling
party politicians, and judges is increasing, according to
human rights groups. Some of those who have spoken out
against the Executive branch have been followed and
threatened with financial ruin and/or scandal. The President
publicly stated that he and other bush warriors know better
how to interpret the law than judges and he accused some
judges of being members of the opposition. The process is
underway for the President to hand-pick judges, a move that
judicial officials argue would curb the independence of the
judiciary if not based on professional qualifications and
experience.


10. (C) Another worrisome development over the past two
weeks was the emergence of the "Kiboko" squad or "stick
brigade" on April 17 at an opposition rally. Eyewitness
accounts, confirmed by the Uganda Police Service's own

KAMPALA 00000744 003 OF 003


spokesman, report that police stood by while the kiboko squad
beat up civilians. Publicly, government officials are
denying any involvement with the kiboko squad, but privately
a Cabinet member told emboffs that the squad was created to
"fight fire with fire" by teaching Besigye's "paid thugs" a
lesson. The squad was seen leaving Central Police
Headquarters to go to the scene of the demonstration.
Museveni said "I salute the Ugandans who stood by justice and
opposed the criminals." He claimed that the kiboko squad had
reacted "spontaneously, nobody organized it. These people
when they saw these rioters attacking people and shops. I
think they are part of a group that rescued many Asian people
who would have been killed by these criminals."

- - - - - - - - - - -
FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS
- - - - - - - - - - -


11. (C) Various foreign investors have told emboffs that
they are keeping "one foot in Uganda, and one foot outside"
to guard against the heightened tensions between Museveni and
his political opponents. There are indications that the
Asian community is divided between some of the larger
investors and smaller Indian and Chinese businesses.
Longtime contacts are concerned about rising xenophobia and
the association of the Asian community with the Executive.
Violent incidents in March and April have raised concerns
among outside investors about Uganda's long term prospects
for stability if current trends continue.

- - - -
COMMENT
- - - -


12. (C) The Mabira Forest land could be saved from sugarcane
production if Museveni uses the Cabinet as a way out of the
situation and other land is found for the Mehta Group.
Meanwhile, the Executive's crackdown on dissent is unlikely
to abate and the political space for competing ideas will
continue to close. Lacking a focused political platform, and
resources, and facing internal divisions, the opposition will
continue to use confrontational tactics to voice its dissent
and undermine the government. In response, the Executive will
use the full extent of the law and other types of threats and
pressure, such as calling in bank loans of its opponents, to
quell dissent. We do not see any indications that the
Executive or the opposition are taking steps to break the
current cycle of acrimony.
BROWNING