LRA PEACE PROCESS UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KAMPALA 001894

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017
TAGS: PHUM PREL MOPS PGOV SU UG
SUBJECT: LRA PEACE PROCESS UPDATE

REF: KAMPALA 1842

Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)
.


1. (SBU) Turmoil within the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA),
including the execution of LRA deputy leader Vincent Otti and
recent defections, have injected uncertainty into the future
of the peace process. The LRA negotiating team's
consultations were set to wrap up in Uganda on December 8,
but funding problems, confusion over next steps, and fear of
LRA leader Kony appear to be delaying the delegation's
departure. Martin Ojul informed donors that the peace
process would be finished by the end of February or early
March. The LRA consultations at Rikwangba would begin in
early January. For its part, the GOU appears mostly content
to allow the LRA to work out its internal problems while it
encourages LRA defections.

LRA CONSULTATIONS WRAP UP IN UGANDA
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2. (C) In a briefing for donors on December 4, LRA
delegation leader Martin Ojul said that the LRA delegation
would travel to Juba on December 10 to meet with Riek Machar,
the Government of Southern Sudan mediator. Ojul remained on
message when the donors asked about LRA deputy Otti's fate,
reporting that Kony said that Otti was under house arrest.
Ray Achama, an LRA member of the Cessation of Hostilities
Monitoring Team (CHMT) told P/E Chief that Ojul knows Otti is
dead, but Ojul cannot contradict Kony, whom he fears
intensely. Ojul also told the donors that the consultative
meeting at Rikwangba would start on January 2. He stated
that the peace process could be completed at the end of
February. These dates began slipping as soon as Ojul uttered
them. U.N. officials indicated consultations would begin the
second week of January. Ojul told P/E Chief privately that
mid-March was a more "accurate" target date for ending the
talks.

GOU CONTENT TO WAIT
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3. (C) Publicly, the GOU continues to pledge its support for
the peace process. GOU Chief Negotiator Ruhakana Rugunda
said that the GOU was comfortable with allowing Kony time to
"sort himself out." Henry Okello Oryem, the GOU team's
deputy, said that Ugandan officials do not plan on returning
to Juba until after the new year. Captain Barigye, the GOU
delegation spokesman, told P/E Chief on December 6 that the
GOU was on a two-track approach. First, the GOU would
contain Kony's ability to act, by denying him access to arms
caches in southern Sudan and northern Uganda. The GOU also
has alerted the Central African Republic of Kony's reported
intentions to relocate there. The GOU would continue to
encourage LRA defections, and take all measures to defend its
borders from incursions. Second, while the GOU was highly
skeptical of the current LRA negotiating team's authority to
negotiate for Kony, the GOU would continue to participate in
the Juba Peace Talks.
CHRITTON