UGANDA: POST DOES NOT RECOMMENDED FOR PARTNERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L KAMPALA 001709

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU, PARIS FOR USOECD PAUL REID, CURTIS
STONE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM EAID EUN OECD UG FR
SUBJECT: UGANDA: POST DOES NOT RECOMMENDED FOR PARTNERSHIP
FOR DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE PILOT

REF: A. STATE 139331

B. STATE 138461

Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Post does not assess the Democracy and
Governance environment in Uganda to be conducive for a quick
success for the Partnership for Democratic Governance (PDG)
pilot. Government officials, including President Museveni,
have publicly complained about outside interference on
governance and transparency issues and would not welcome the
conditions attached to the project. The Government has
dragged its feet on signing off on USAID Democracy and
Governance programs and has been slow to provide its
counterpart funding for the Millenium Challenge Corporation
Country Threshold Plan. A PDG project could become
controversial as President Museveni seeks a fourth
presidential term. Given the track record and current
operating environment, post does not believe that Uganda
constitutes a "low hanging fruit" that would generate a quick
success to gain momentum for the program. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Post's assessment of the suitability of Uganda for
PDG pilot programs follows.


3. (SBU) The Government of Uganda has not demonstrated the
political will to support democracy and governance projects,
particularly those focused on transparency, and would not
likely be prepared to accept the conditions that would come
with PDG contracts. USAID negotiated a Millenium Challenge
Corporation Threshold Country Plan with the Government in
November 2006. The Government had agreed to provide
counterpart funding of USD 2 million and has yet to make good
on its promise. Under the pressure of a presidential visit
to Washington in October and motivated by the possibility of
a MCC Compact, the Minister of Finance and other officials
have said that they would provide the counterpart funding.
In 2006 and 2007, the Minister of Finance refused to sign off
on USAID Democracy and Governance projects. He raised
concerns over whether the U.S. should be involved in Uganda's
domestic politics. The Minister did sign off on the funds
after the issue was raised prior to President Museveni's
visit to Washington. In September 2006, President Museveni
publicly criticized the findings of a USAID Democracy and
Governance Assessment. He said that he could teach a course
to the west about democracy.


4. (C) We expect the political environment to become
increasingly charged over the next few years as Museveni
seeks a fourth presidential term and moves forward with
controversial constitutional amendments. Executive respect
for the judiciary remains low. In March 2007, after security
forces invaded the High Court premises to re-arrest detainees
who had been granted bail, Museveni announced that bush
fighters were better placed than judges to interpret the law.
Heavy-handed actions against demonstrators raised concerns
earlier this year about the Government's commitment to
allowing opposition rallies. Recent bye-elections were
marred by charges of fraud and manipulation. The Government
has curbed some media freedoms over the past year.


5. (SBU) Uganda is saturated with donors and donor
assistance. Forty five percent of Uganda's budget comes from
donors. The Partners for Democracy and Governance group in
Kampala is comprised of representatives from developing
countries, who seek to monitor the Government's progress on a
number of fronts: human rights, democracy and governance,
anti-corruption, local governances, peace and conflict, and
northern Ugandan development issues. However, meetings
between the PDG and Foreign Minister on key human rights,
democracy, and transparency issues have yielded little
progress or reversal in worrying trends.


6. (C) Comment: There is no doubt that Uganda is
experiencing growing pains after Museveni grudgingly returned
the country to multi-party rule in 2006 as a trade-off for
the removal of presidential term limits. We expect the next
few years to be politically-charged as Museveni consolidates
his hold over the political arena and the electoral
arrangements for his re-election. As a result, there will be
little incentive for the Government to back projects
supporting democratic reforms. End Comment.
CHRITTON
CHRITTON