Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KABUL996
2007-03-26 16:46:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:  

PRT/PANSHJIR: FUTURE PLANS OF THE PROVINCE II

Tags:  PREL PGOV EAID EAGR AF 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5735
PP RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #0996/01 0851646
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 261646Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7071
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3839
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000996 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CR, S/CT, SCA/PAB, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN
OSD FOR SHIVERS
CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-76, AND POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID EAGR AF
SUBJECT: PRT/PANSHJIR: FUTURE PLANS OF THE PROVINCE II

REF: A. KABUL 951

B. KABUL 178

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000996

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CR, S/CT, SCA/PAB, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN
OSD FOR SHIVERS
CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-76, AND POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID EAGR AF
SUBJECT: PRT/PANSHJIR: FUTURE PLANS OF THE PROVINCE II

REF: A. KABUL 951

B. KABUL 178


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Panjshir Province is changing. Its
transformation will continue thanks to agents of change: a
new road, radio broadcasts, cell phones, a maturing
administration and an active PRT. Provincial officials have
formulated specific plans to lay the foundation (ref A).
Panjshir's future look and texture are only now emerging.
Four positive visions have crystallized: Massoud Park, Kabul
Suburb, Valley Cornucopia and Salang East. Panjshir will
likely combine elements of all four, although Kabul Suburb
may become dominant. All four are in sync with the PRT
mission. A fifth vision, Fortress Panjshir, would become
relevant if security deteriorated in the country. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) This is the second message in a two-part series on
the future of Panjshir Province. This message examines
general provincial visions. Ref A analyzed specific
provincial plans.


3. (SBU) At a ribbon-cutting event for two of the Commander's
Emergency Response Program (CERP)-funded bridges March 15,
the acting Governor recalled the enormous progress of the
past few years and predicted even greater changes in the
future. The key document for projecting that change is the
Provincial Development Plan (PDP). Currently, it is more a
list of project priorities than a vision of provincial
potential. Yet both, plans and visions, depend on the
continuation of Panjshir,s status as free of insurgent
violence, poppy cultivation, drug trafficking and major
corruption. Aggregating PDP projects and talking to
influential Panjshiris, one can discern four visions of the
future.

--------------
Vision One: Massoud Park
--------------


4. (SBU) At the heart of this vision lies a combination of
natural beauty and national heritage. One Afghan contact
compared it to that of Kyoto in Japan. It would appeal above
all to tourists. Panjshir would capitalize on its pristine
nature, preserved through the topographical and historical

isolation of the valley. It would offer various recreational
options, including hiking, fishing and rafting. Panjshir, in
this vision, would remain protected, possibly along the lines
of an American national park. It would also preserve the
Massoud legacy, especially his prominent tomb, former office
complex, and hill-side gardens. Tourists, including many
internationals, have already felt the pull of Massoud's tomb.
The Panjshiris who espouse this vision are a mixed lot drawn
from the ranks of environmentalists, business people, elders
and former mujaheddin But, without quick concerted action,
they could see some development spoiling their Massoud Park.

--------------
Vision Two: Kabul Suburb
--------------


5. (SBU) The USAID-funded rehabilitation of the main road has
transformed the valley, making this vision an emerging force.
As the Governor told A/S Boucher during his January 10
visit, the road is the linchpin: It connects Panjshir to
Kabul, and Kabul to Panjshir (ref B). Travel time has fallen
from five to two hours. It has enabled many workers from
Panjshir to seek employment in the capital without abandoning
their families. It has allowed Panjshiris serving in the
Afghan government, such as the Vice President, National
Directorate of Security (NDS) Chief, and Chief of the Army
Staff to return home on weekends. Indeed, traffic picks up
three-fold on the weekends. Panjshiris cite the road as the
most potent agent of change because of the proximity of
Kabul. One effect has been economic, reflected in a price
convergence between goods in Kabul and Panjshir, thanks to

KABUL 00000996 002 OF 003


the reduction in transport costs. This vision is playing
out, but could be derailed by insecurity in the Shomali Plain
lying between the province and the capital.

--------------
Vision Three: Valley Cornucopia
--------------


6. (SBU) Panjshir possesses natural resources, the
exploitation of which forms the core of this vision. The
river, for example, is clean and flows year round.
Panjshiris are considering ways to bottle it as drinking
water and to channel it for irrigation and hydro power. The
fruit and nut trees in the valley are world class, especially
apple, apricot, almond and walnut. Now that transport costs
have dropped, this produce is expanding its market-share in
Kabul. For this reason, the Governor calls agriculture one
of his top priorities. By far the most profitable resource
is emerald extraction. According to the Deputy Governor,
emerald exports reached a high-water mark in the early 1990s,
then fell sharply. Peak employment was over eight hundred
workers. Slowly the mines, located in two side valleys in
the Khenj district, are coming back. There is not, however,
any significant outside investment so far. This vision
hinges on such investment. It faces limits because of
electricity constraints on large-scale enterprises.

--------------
Vision Four: Salang East
--------------


7. (SBU) The nearby Salang Corridor furnishes the prototype
for this vision of a vital commercial link between Kabul and
the North. Along Salang's well-maintained road, a derivative
economy has sprung up with motels, restaurants and gas
stations. For Panjshir, such a concept would depend on
extension of the USAID road further northeast through the
Anjuman Pass. Ultimately, under this vision, the road would
link Afghanistan to China in a modern version of the Silk
Road. The distance from Kabul to Badahkshan would fall by
half. Panjshir would benefit from the commercial traffic,
including that siphoned off from Salang. Of all the four
visions, this one would take the longest time and require the
greatest investment to realize. Such a road is part of the
master plan of the Ministry of Public Works but is currently
unfunded.

--------------
Fortress Panjshir
--------------


8. (SBU) A fifth vision is in fact a throwback. It depends
on a bleak scenario, namely, the deterioration of security in
the rest of the country. Panjshiris might then roll back the
opening of the valley. Their province would revert to its
previous state as a fortress, closed to the rest of the
country and largely self-sufficient. This instinct is rooted
in historical experience and reinforced by the recent
fighting against the Soviets and Taliban. It explains
Panjshir reluctance to turn in ammunition stocks under the
UNDP/ANBP program and Panjshir skepticism of converting grain
fields into specialized agriculture. Fortress Panjshir is
incompatible with the other visions and contradictory to the
PRT mission.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (SBU) The Panjshir Provincial Development Plan is all
trees and no forest. It is filled with specific priorities
but no general visions. Yet its individual projects could
lead to aggregate outcomes, to four distinctly different
visions. All four are in sync with the PRT mission to extend
governance, bolster security and advance reconstruction. But
not all of the visions are compatible with one another. The

KABUL 00000996 003 OF 003


pastoral vision of Massoud Park, for example, could clash
with the commercial vision of Salang East or that of valley
cornucopia. Based on current trends, Kabul Suburb, which may
very well be a blend of the other three, displays the
strongest momentum. Fortress Panjshir, with its emphasis on
closing and not opening the valley, may seem the antithetical
vision; but Panjshiris have lived it and have never discarded
it. END COMMENT.
NEUMANN