Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KABUL919
2007-03-20 10:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:  

NATIONAL FRONT: REFERENDUM ON KARZAI?

Tags:  PREL PGOV IR AF 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0008
PP RUEHBC RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK
DE RUEHBUL #0919/01 0791009
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 201009Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6936
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3545
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3779
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 000919 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA/FO, SCA/A, S/CT, S/CR, SCA/PAB, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN
OSD FOR KIMMITT
CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76 POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR AF
SUBJECT: NATIONAL FRONT: REFERENDUM ON KARZAI?

Classified By: A/DCM Carol Rodley for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 000919

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA/FO, SCA/A, S/CT, S/CR, SCA/PAB, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN
OSD FOR KIMMITT
CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76 POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR AF
SUBJECT: NATIONAL FRONT: REFERENDUM ON KARZAI?

Classified By: A/DCM Carol Rodley for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Several jihadi commanders, concerned about
the worsening security situation across the country have
formed a political group, the National Front (NF),with two
mandates: (1) changing the system of government to a
parliamentary model and (2) electing governors (vice
Presidential appointment system). The NF, with at least 20
founding members who represent several key mujaheddin
leaders, also intends to field a presidential candidate in
the 2010 elections. They stress that the National Front is
purely a political organization, not a military one. It is
stacked with Northern Alliance commanders, Sunnis and Shias
as well as Hazaras from the north, west, and east. There are
only a few Pashtuns. The king's grandson is a member,
despite Karzai's alleged entreaties not to join the group.
The royal household supports the NF's platform of creating a
parliamentary system of government. NF leader Rabbani has
reportedly received money from Iran to establish the group to
pose a direct threat to Karzai's power. Political circles
are abuzz about whether this alliance will be able to bring
about significant changes to the current system of
governance. END SUMMARY.

--------------
"Front" Aims To Reform GOA Structure
--------------

2. (C) On March 14, parliamentarian Burnhanuddin Rabbani's
political advisor Mr. Chakeri and parliamentarian (and jihadi
leader) Fazal Karim Aimaq from Kunduz province spoke to
Poloff at length about the National Front, a political group
headed by Rabbani whose creation is expected to be announced
shortly after the Islamic new year on March 21. (Note: Aimaq
is a mujaheddin leader. He was mayor of Kabul for several
months in 2002, and was a member of both the Constitutional
and the Presidential jirgas. Chakeri was the logistical
organizer for the February 23 rally in favor of the Amnesty
bill which drew approximately 25,000 people to the Kabul

sports stadium. End Note.). Chakeri explained that several
jihadi commanders, concerned about worsening security across
the country and the President's perceived weakness, decided
to form a coalition with two explicit goals: changing the
system of government to a parliamentary model and electing
governors. Chakeri said the NF has already created its
"manifesto," which outlines these goals and its over-arching
goal of establishing peace "since the GOA has been unable to
do so." Chakeri stressed that the NF is purely a political
organization, not a military one. MP Aimaq stated that an
important third goal includes ensuring that the international
military presence is seen as a legitimate presence by all
sectors of society across the country. According to Chakeri,
the NF will also field a presidential candidate in the 2010
elections.


3. (C) Aimaq opined that "people will say that warlords are
coming together to form a coalition to gain control. They
will say the group is based on ethnicity, but this is false."
He explained that the NF wants to provide a "check and
balance" to the current power structure and intends to
restore collaboration in political life by reducing the power
of certain individuals who currently wield too much power
(Note: Aimaq was likely referring to President Karzai and his
advisors. End Note.).

--------------
Northern Alliance Jihadis Comprise "Front"
--------------

4. (C) Chakeri explained that the NF's leadership is
divided into a leadership council (members yet to be
determined) and an executive council, which includes:
-MP Rabbani (former President who is a Tajik Sunni from
Badakhshan)
-Vice President Massoud (a Tajik Sunni from Panjshir)
-Vice President Khalili (a Hazara Shia leader from Bamyan)
-Marshal Fahim (former Minister of Defense and Vice President

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who is a Tajik Sunni from Panjshir)
-Water and Power Minister Ismail Khan (a Tajik Sunni
commander in the jihad in charge of the west from Herat)
-MP Nadiri (a Hazara from Baghlan who is the leader of the
Ismaili sect of Shias)
-Lower House Speaker Qanooni (a Tajik Sunni jihadi from
Panjshir)
-General Dostum (an Uzbek Sunni former communist from Jowzjan
province who is Chief of the Armed Forces and who has allied
with both Shia and Sunni factions several times)
-MP Gulabzoy (a former communist Pashtun Sunni from Khost)
-MP Olumi (a former communist Pashtun Sunni and Chairman of
the Defense Committee from Kandahar)
-MP Aimaq (a Tajik Sunni jihadi leader from Kunduz)
-MP Kazimi (an Tajik Shia Iran supporter from Parwan who was
former Ministry of Commerce and previously a very senior
figure in Islamic Revolutionary Movement- a Shia movement
based in Pakistan)
-MP Akbari (a Hazara Shia Iran sympathizer from Bamyan)
-MP Farahi (a former communist Pashtun Sunni from Farah)
-MP Haji Hazrat Ali (a Pashai Sunni from Nangarhar)
-judge Wakat (a Pashtun Sunni from Nangarhar with ties to
Hezb-Islami led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyer)
MP Registani (a Tajik Sunni from Panjshir who was a senior
advisor to Massoud)
-3-4 women who have not yet been selected.


5. (C) In a March 15 meeting, parliamentarian Salih
Mohammad Registani from Panjshir province explained that
Rabbani will be the interim head of the NF for approximately
six months, then leaders from other coalition parties will
take over the leadership in rotating turns. Registani
expressed concern that this rotating leadership may create
instability within the NF, but nonetheless added that the NF
has a "real chance at a sustained existence." Registani
added that discussions regarding the formation of the NF have
been underway for the past six months, and there are
approximately 25 goals in total which have been discussed
among the group's members, who represent more than a dozen
political parties (estimates range from 15 to 24). Registani
echoed MP Aimaq's comments that the NF will also focus on
making sure the international military forces are viewed as a
legitimate presence with a valid mandate.

--------------
Two Prominent Leaders NOT Included...
--------------

6. (C) Notably, MPs Sayyaf (a Pashtun Sunni from Kabul) and
Mohaqqeq (a Hazara Shia from Kabul) are not members of the
NF. (Note: Sayyaf was the only anti-Taliban Pashtun leader
who was allied with the Northern Alliance commanders prior to
the fall of Kabul. End Note). According to Chakeri,
Mohaqqeq was not invited. Sayyaf was invited, but stipulated
several conditions before he would join. Chakeri said the
NF's executive council was waiting to receive his conditions
and then the council would decide whether to accept them.


7. (C) Some sources report that Sayyaf is hedging his bets
and waiting to see if Hekmatyar comes back to Kabul, and if
he does, Sayyaf may choose to ally with Hekmatyar in lieu of
the NF. In a March 17 meeting with parliamentarian Ishaq
Gailani, a Pashtun jihadi leader from Paktika province,
Gailani told Poloff that parliamentarians Sayyaf and Mohaqqeq
are looking to form their own alliance in opposition to the
NF, and Gailani thinks they may receive financial support
from the GOA to do so. Sayyaf and Mohaqqeq have formed
alliances in Parliament previously in an attempt to get one
or the other elected leadership positions in the Lower House.
Their latest alliance consisted of a failed attempt to get
Mohaqqeq elected Second Deputy Speaker in January.
Reportedly, Mohaqqeq, considered a leader among the Hazaras,
has fallen out of favor with them due to his links with
Sayyaf.

--------------

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King's Grandson Joins the Front
--------------

8. (C) King Zahir Shah's grandson, Mustafa Zahir Shah, is
also a member of the NF. According to Chakeri, Karzai spoke
to Marshal Fahim and Mustafa last week about the NF and
warned Marshal Fahim against creating the NF. He tried to
entice Mustafa not to join by offering to make Mustafa his
presidential protege. Fahim reportedly replied that it was
the NF's constitutional right to form a group and Mustafa
told Karzai that if the President would not tolerate his
membership in the NF, he would rather leave the country and
wait for Karzai's term to end rather than be Karzai's
presidential protege. (Note: Some sources report that the
King's grandson was invited to join the NF to lend "western
legitimacy" to the group since he grew up in western Europe.
End Note.) Chakeri added that Mustafa consulted with his
family members before joing the NF's executive board,
including Sardar Wali (the king's son-in-law) and Nader (the
king's grandson). Nader has recently begun attending NF
meetings with Mustafa.

--------------
Fatwa Way Forward Against Taliban?
--------------

9. (C) Chakeri asserted that Karzai cannot understand that
making war against the Taliban is not the way to eliminate
them. He said that the way forward is to foment national
unity against the Taliban and to do this, 2,000-3,000
religious scholars from across the Islamic world should be
invited to Afghanistan to issue a joint fatwa that the war
the Taliban is fighting is un-Islamic. This, he added, would
help bring the country together to stand against the Taliban,
and it would legitimize the coalition's efforts to fight
against them. He added that several prominent religious
scholars have already signaled their willingness to come and
engage in the fatwa process.

--------------
Iran Allegedly Financing "Front"
--------------

10. (C) In the March 17 meeting, MP Gailani told Poloff
that Rabbani had received large amounts of money from Iran to
establish the NF to pose a direct threat to Karzai's power.
According to Gailani, Iran's overarching goal is to
destabilize Karzai and bring Shias into power in the
executive branch. Funding the NF is one of the planks in its
strategy. (Note: Gailani added that, in addition to
supporting the NF financially, Iran is also gaining influence
with a targeted campaign of buying land and housing with
money from the Imam Khomeini Foundation at two to three times
the commercial value in Ghazni, Herat, Bamyan, Uruzgan, Ghor,
and Kabul provinces. Gailani explained that Iran's
intention is to create conditions in provinces where the
majority of land and property holders are Shia. Should the
opportunity arise, Shias could then rise up in opposition to
the central government and re-establish their reign over the
region formerly called "Hazarajat" in the central and
central-western area of the country, also referred to as
Hazarastan. The land purchases, Gailani explained, are
another plank in Iran's efforts to increase its influence in
Afghanistan. End Note.)

--------------
COMMENT
--------------

11. (C) The NF appears to be a direct attempt at a
referendum on Karzai's performance. It is moving boldly
forward in its effort to limit Presidential powers
considerably by pushing for a parliamentary model of
governance (which, according to Article 111 of the
constitution, would require a Loya Jirga to make the change)
and siphoning off presidential power in the provinces by
making the governor an elected (vice
Presidentially-appointed) position. Its leadership is
stacked with commanders of the Northern Alliance who are

KABUL 00000919 004 OF 004


anxious to exert their power in the executive branch of
government, as well as several Shias, who may be agitating
for a Shia leader, with general financial backing from Iran.
The NF's membership is varied, with jihad leaders, former
communists, Shias, Sunnis, Tajiks, Hazaras, and
representation from the North, West, and East. There are only
a few Pashtuns, one of whom is from the south. The royal
household's support of the NF's goal of switching to a
parliamentary system of government calls into question the
royal family's support of Karzai's leadership. Political
circles are abuzz about whether this alliance will be able to
bring about such massive changes to the existing system of
government. While the NF may be a potential threat to
Karzai's power, its creation marks progress in that the
jihadis are attempting to bring down Karzai via the political
process rather than violence, which likely would have been a
very real possibility not so long ago. END COMMENT.
NEUMANN