TAJIK-PASHTUN SUSPICIONS INFORM PARLIAMENT-PALACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 004197

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
NSC FOR JWOOD
OSD FOR SHIVERS
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/25/2012
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: TAJIK-PASHTUN SUSPICIONS INFORM PARLIAMENT-PALACE
DISPUTE

REF: A. KABUL 1605

B. KABUL 4153

KABUL 00004197 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: A/DCM Bruce Rogers for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/REL ISAF) Summary: Parliament debated and passed more
legislation in its 2007 session than in any previous year,
but became embroiled in a power struggle with the Karzai
government. Palace-Parliament disputes erupted with
increasing frequency throughout the session, and, at times,
threatened to obstruct the latter's execution of its Afghan
Compact-legislative responsibilities. Karzai fared well in
this contest, but will face stiff challenges in 2008. The
Palace and Parliament are seeking to define their relative
constitutional prerogatives, a familiar phenomenon in a new
democracy; however, the two institutions have increasingly
become proxies in an ethnic contest between northern Tajiks
and a more openly Pashtun Karzai. The former aim for
constitutional accommodation of a parliamentary system with a
symbolic Pashtun president dominated by a Tajik prime
minister.

2007 Session Most Productive and Politicized to Date
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Under Speaker Qanooni's leadership, Parliament
considered 30-plus bills and resolutions during 2007
(septel),making the session its most productive to date.
While Parliament did not dispose of all its agenda items, it
approved several significant pieces of legislation including
the UN Convention Against Corruption, a bill on the
environment, and a bill on prisons and detention centers.
Parliament also sent the President a media bill, which
provides protections for a free press and establishes an
independent media regulatory body.


3. (C/REL ISAF) Against this backdrop of increased
productivity, Parliament's Lower House also became the stage
for a struggle over constitutional prerogatives between the
United Front opposition group and President Karzai.
Palace-Parliament tension was manifest throughout the 2007
session, but threatened to interfere with the latter's
execution of its Afghan Compact legislative responsibilities
on three occasions: when Karzai chose to ignore Parliament's
vote of no-confidence on Foreign Minister Spanta (REF A);
when he established by decree the Independent Directorate of
Local Governance, and; when Karzai ignored Parliament's
request that he suspend executive branch officials in the
wake of the November 6 Baghlan bombing (REF B). In each
case, though Karzai secured a precedent favoring the power of
the Palace over that of the Parliament, he stoked the anger
of a frustrated Speaker Qanooni and his United Front.


4. (C/REL ISAF) On all three occasions, United Front MPs
denounced Karzai's actions as unconstitutional power grabs
and threatened to shut down Parliament. Tensions culminated
in the early December dispute over the culpability of
executive branch officials for alleged security lapses
leading to the Baghlan bombing. Though Qanooni did provoke a
walkout, independent MPs, nervous about a possible loss of
pay and privileges, pressured him into returning to the
chamber two days later.

Elections Bill May Raise the Stakes in 2008
--------------


5. (C/ISAF) The Elections Law bill, which Parliament is to
consider early in 2008, promises to be another flashpoint.
The 2005 version of the law kept political party symbols off
ballots and mandated single non-transferable voting, both of
which weakened the visibility of political parties and
favored Karzai's unity government. The United Front believes
party symbols on ballots and proportional representation
would help it gain seats. The two sides have already begun
to spar over the bill.

Constitutional Battle is a Proxy for Ethnic Conflict

KABUL 00004197 002.2 OF 002


-------------- --------------


6. (C/ISAF) The constitutional fight has increasingly become
a proxy for the power struggle between Afghanistan's two
largest ethnic groups, the Pashtuns and numerically smaller
Tajiks. Pashtuns favor a strong president in a unity
government. Tajiks, who are far more united and politically
savvy, favor constitutional accommodation of a parliamentary
system with a symbolic Pashtun president dominated by a Tajik
prime minister.


7. (C/ISAF) The Tajik-Pashtun power struggle in Parliament
has begun to infect the rest of the government. First Vice
President Ahmad Zia Massoud, a Tajik, recently criticized his
government's faltering anti-corruption campaign as a
transparent attempt to reduce the influence of the former
Northern Alliance, the Tajik-dominated mujahideen predecessor
to the United Front. If Karzai is to avert a paralyzing
break with the Tajiks, he will have to step carefully on
Pashtun outreach, and especially reconciliation with former
insurgents, so as not to alienate further Afghanistan's
non-Pashtuns.
WOOD