PRT BAMYAN: SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT ON SECURITY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000370

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CR, SCA/PAB
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
NSC FOR HARRIMAN
OSD FOR KIMMITT
CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76, AND POLAD
REL TO NATO/AUS/NZ/ISAF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV EAID ECON PHUM AF
SUBJECT: PRT BAMYAN: SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT ON SECURITY,
POLITICS, ECONOMICS, AND SOCIAL ISSUES

REF: 06KABUL 5654

Classified By: PolCounselor SRosenberry for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Bamyan continues to enjoy relative peace and
security. Development assistance from the U.S. Government is
on the rise, almost entirely due to the twelve fold increase
in CERP assistance for 2007. On the political front,
Governor Sarabi has taken steps to counter criticism from her
political opposition, but her position is perhaps slightly
weaker now than last sunmmer. While the cost of consumer
goods is up roughly 30 percent this quarter, this is to be
expected during winter in Bamyan. End Summary.

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SECURITY
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2. (C) The Bamyan PRT was the second PRT established in
Afghanistan in September 2003; it has not suffered an attack
in that entire time. While the PRT received credible
intelligence in September and October 2006 about a possible
RCIED threat against the Police Chief, Governor and/or PRT,
security measures were put in place by provincial officials
and the PRT to minimize any associated risk. There is no
indication that such action is likely now. The environment is
classified currently as "semi-permissive" by the PRT.


3. (SBU) Within the province there are local security
concerns related to general criminality, such as the likely
ongoing movement of drugs through Bamyan. A shipment of just
over 1,800 kilos of drugs was seized in the Yakawlang
district on October 18. There have been no subsequent
seizures.

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POLITICAL SITUATION
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4. (SBU) This fall there were a number of renewed allegations
against Governor Sarabi (reftel). These complaints generated
visits from two Presidential Advisors in September and a
delegation from the Ministry of Interior in early November.
The complaints primarily focused on the Governor,s inability
to garner sufficient development funds from the international
community and her inability to manage those under her who are
accused of smuggling artifacts. These non-specific and
non-substantiated allegations of smuggling have been raised
off and on for the last year, and it appears that the
opposition comes from a disaffected, and perhaps politically
motivated few. To address these criticisms, the Governor has
begun monthly radio addresses. She also initiated a
government newsletter in January to be distributed throughout
the province.


5. (SBU) The Provincial Council has kept a relatively low
profile over the last three months. This is perhaps due to
their involvement in training and briefings the National
Democratic Institute (NDI) has organized for the Council
members. Disappointingly, though invited, the Provincial
Council has not been an active participant in the development
of the Provincial Development Plan. By contrast, almost all
of the provincial line ministries have been engaged this
quarter in putting together projects for the coming year.

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Economic Situation
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6. (SBU) The economic situation of the province has changed
slightly due to the increased cost (up 30 percent since this
summer) of consumer goods. Although the increase is notable,
this is a typical yearly trend based on increased difficulty

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obtaining supplies from Kabul in winter. What is normally a
nine hour drive from Kabul to Bamyan in summer is frequently
12 hours or more in winter due to treacherous road
conditions. These increased transportation costs are passed
on directly to Bamyan consumers.


7. (U) According to provincial officials, approximately 80
percent of families are involved in subsistence farming. The
primary crops produced in Bamyan are potatoes and wheat,
though there are nut and fruit orchards in the Khamard
district. According to anecdotal reports from locals, this
year,s harvest appeared to be slightly below normal due to
some isolated droughts as well as floods. Recently there
have been several meetings between Bamyan NGOs and provincial
officials regarding humanitarian assistance for as many as
40,000 people (just under 10 percent of the population) this
winter.


8. (U) With respect to development, the province has seen a
12 fold increase in the (DOD) Commander,s Emergency Response
Program (CERP) funding -- from roughly USD 500,000 last year
to just over USD 5.8 million for 2007. This increase is
striking since, according to the USAID press office, the
projects of USAID (arguably the largest donor in Bamyan,
followed by NZAID) total just over USD 10 million from its
inception until now. Timing is an issue. Bamyan has a very
short construction season, so a number of the projects
(schools, health clinics, micro hydro, solar power, and wells
to name a few) contracted last fall will not get underway
until after March.


9. (U) The governor,s long-term vision of a self-sufficient
province is built upon developing tourism for the province.
Bamyan is unique in that it contains three UNESCO world
heritage sites: the Budda niches; the 'City of Screams' (the
fort razed by Genghis Khan); and the caves of the Buddhist
monks. The Governor is also pushing to have Band-i-Mir lake
listed as an Afghan National Park to raise Bamyan's profile
as an attractive destination. While Bamyan does benefit from
some tourism, this segment of the economy is not currently
producing any meaningful dividends.


10. (U) Also of note, are Bamyan,s untapped natural
resources (coal, iron ore and possibly silver). Currently
there is a small coal mining operation in the Khamard
district. Much of the coal it produces is being used to heat
homes this winter in surrounding villages.

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Cultural/Social Situation
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11. (SBU) The people of Bamyan live very modest lives. They
live on the edge of poverty and natural disasters have
serious consequences here, especially if crops are affected.
Many people are requesting humanitarian assistance to get
through the winter. The province has received very little
snow over the last few months, and people are already
predicting that there could be serious droughts this coming
summer.


12. (U) Bamyan has rudimentary schools, many of which are
little more than teachers working with a blackboard under
tents. CERP and New Zealand AID completed work on a handful
of schools last quarter, and they have plans to build an
additional two schools in each district next year.
Fortunately, in contrast to other provinces, Bamyan schools
have not been the targeted by insurgents. Forty-three
percent of the students enrolled in primary schools are
girls.


13. (SBU) Women, such as Governor Sarabi, hold a fair number
of key positions within the province, thus women,s rights
are discussed fairly regularly. In November the Department
of Women,s Affairs (DoWA) held a well-attended conference in
honor of the UN Day on Combating Violence Against Women.

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DoWA also organized a discussion with the NGO community
regarding the best ways to advance women,s development. The
PRT and UNAMA are working with DoWA currently to help it
clarify and prioritize its projects within the PDP for 2007.


14. (SBU) With respect to human rights, UNAMA has flagged the
recent case of the rape of a 15 year-old boy. He was raped
repeatedly by four ANP officers and allegedly three
civilians. The police arrested and charged their own ANP
officers, who were tried and found guilty. The UNAMA human
rights officer has questioned the lack of efforts by the
police to locate the three civilians also implicated, as well
as the fact that the police placed the victim in a juvenile
detention center with one of the alleged underage rapists.
Two of the alleged civilian rapists are reportedly close
relatives of the Bamyan Deputy Chief of Police as well as one
of the District Chiefs of Police.

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Comment
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15. (SBU) The Bamyan province is justifiably proud of its
security and stability. The people are very supportive of
the ISAF forces and believe that our presence directly
supports the relative peace that Bamyan enjoys. Overall
there have been many positive developments, especially in
terms of increased government planning and preparation for
the next construction cycle. The governor, however, still
has work to do if she is to overcome lost ground with the
public resulting from criticism by her opponents.
NEUMANN