Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07JERUSALEM1406
2007-07-09 04:30:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Jerusalem
Cable title:
KHALIL SHIKAKI ON FATAH'S WEST BANK SITUATION AND
how-toVZCZCXYZ0003 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHJM #1406 1900430 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 090430Z JUL 07 FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8287 INFO RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 7704 RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV PRIORITY 3157 RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 4319 RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 001406
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/WATERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV IS KWBG KPAL
SUBJECT: KHALIL SHIKAKI ON FATAH'S WEST BANK SITUATION AND
PROSPECTS
Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, for reasons 1.4 b and d
C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 001406
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/WATERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV IS KWBG KPAL
SUBJECT: KHALIL SHIKAKI ON FATAH'S WEST BANK SITUATION AND
PROSPECTS
Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, for reasons 1.4 b and d
1. (C) Summary. Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
Research (PCPSR) Director Dr. Khalil Shikaki told U.S.
Security Coordinator (USSC) LTG Keith Dayton on July 3 that
Fatah is disorganized and has failed to consolidate power in
the West Bank, but remains the protector of liberal values in
Palestinian society. He said a successful PA political
outcome is necessarily Fatah-centric. Shikaki urged a new
U.S. initiative to pressure the parties to fulfill their
respective commitments. End summary.
FATAH MISSING AN OPPORTUNITY
--------------
2. (C) Shikaki said Hamas' takeover in Gaza weakened the
faction's standing in the West Bank, but Fatah is failing to
gain advantage from Hamas' political loss. Shikaki said a
recent meeting of 25 younger Fatah activists drove home how
dysfuctional Fatah is, as the group expressed a lack of
confidence in Abu Mazen. Shikaki said he does not believe
that Hamas can take over the West Bank as it did Gaza, but
the fact that some in Fatah believe it is possible reflects a
profound frustration with Fatah's leaders' inability or
unwillingness to fix the movement.
CURRENT LEADERSHIP
--------------
3. (C) Shikaki opined that there will not be a successful PA
political outcome that is not Fatah-centric. An infusion of
more money will not revive the Fatah's political standing, he
said, since it is Fatah's fragmentation and corruption that
must be fixed. He commented that there is no sign of popular
support coalescing around PM Fayyad.
4. (C) Shikaki said he has known Minister of Interior Abd
al-Razaq al-Yahya for ten years as a board member of
Shikaki's PCPSR, and believes that while al-Yahya is known as
a systematic thinker, he is now an aging, cautious man who is
more likely to succeed at reorganizing the Palestinian
security forces (PASF) than taking bold steps to counter
Hamas. He noted al-Yahya has no group of "wise men" to turn
to for advice.
BADR, AAMB, and CONFEDERATION
--------------
5. (C) Shikaki said he is concerned that a deployment of the
Badr forces to the West Bank will be popularly perceived as a
first step toward a Jordanian-Palestinian confederation.
Shikaki said he opposes any confederation prior to
achievement of actual Palestinian statehood. On the problem
of militants and fugitives, he said that, since most al-Aqsa
Martyrs Brigades (AAMB) members came from the PA security
forces (80-90 percent in his estimation),the most logical
solution to these problems is to reintegrate them into their
respective security organizations.
U.S. AND ISRAELI ENGAGEMENT
--------------
6. (C) Shikaki said GOI cooperation is vital, and could most
effectively be obtained by President Bush leading a new
initiative to pressure all parties to fulfill their
commitments. IDF cooperation on PASF redeployment and on
removal of checkpoints and roadblocks, while difficult for
Israel, he said, are preconditions for success. He commented
that announced Israeli plans to release 250 Fatah prisoners
is a &cheap bribe8 that will have no significant impact.
WALLES
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/WATERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV IS KWBG KPAL
SUBJECT: KHALIL SHIKAKI ON FATAH'S WEST BANK SITUATION AND
PROSPECTS
Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, for reasons 1.4 b and d
1. (C) Summary. Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
Research (PCPSR) Director Dr. Khalil Shikaki told U.S.
Security Coordinator (USSC) LTG Keith Dayton on July 3 that
Fatah is disorganized and has failed to consolidate power in
the West Bank, but remains the protector of liberal values in
Palestinian society. He said a successful PA political
outcome is necessarily Fatah-centric. Shikaki urged a new
U.S. initiative to pressure the parties to fulfill their
respective commitments. End summary.
FATAH MISSING AN OPPORTUNITY
--------------
2. (C) Shikaki said Hamas' takeover in Gaza weakened the
faction's standing in the West Bank, but Fatah is failing to
gain advantage from Hamas' political loss. Shikaki said a
recent meeting of 25 younger Fatah activists drove home how
dysfuctional Fatah is, as the group expressed a lack of
confidence in Abu Mazen. Shikaki said he does not believe
that Hamas can take over the West Bank as it did Gaza, but
the fact that some in Fatah believe it is possible reflects a
profound frustration with Fatah's leaders' inability or
unwillingness to fix the movement.
CURRENT LEADERSHIP
--------------
3. (C) Shikaki opined that there will not be a successful PA
political outcome that is not Fatah-centric. An infusion of
more money will not revive the Fatah's political standing, he
said, since it is Fatah's fragmentation and corruption that
must be fixed. He commented that there is no sign of popular
support coalescing around PM Fayyad.
4. (C) Shikaki said he has known Minister of Interior Abd
al-Razaq al-Yahya for ten years as a board member of
Shikaki's PCPSR, and believes that while al-Yahya is known as
a systematic thinker, he is now an aging, cautious man who is
more likely to succeed at reorganizing the Palestinian
security forces (PASF) than taking bold steps to counter
Hamas. He noted al-Yahya has no group of "wise men" to turn
to for advice.
BADR, AAMB, and CONFEDERATION
--------------
5. (C) Shikaki said he is concerned that a deployment of the
Badr forces to the West Bank will be popularly perceived as a
first step toward a Jordanian-Palestinian confederation.
Shikaki said he opposes any confederation prior to
achievement of actual Palestinian statehood. On the problem
of militants and fugitives, he said that, since most al-Aqsa
Martyrs Brigades (AAMB) members came from the PA security
forces (80-90 percent in his estimation),the most logical
solution to these problems is to reintegrate them into their
respective security organizations.
U.S. AND ISRAELI ENGAGEMENT
--------------
6. (C) Shikaki said GOI cooperation is vital, and could most
effectively be obtained by President Bush leading a new
initiative to pressure all parties to fulfill their
commitments. IDF cooperation on PASF redeployment and on
removal of checkpoints and roadblocks, while difficult for
Israel, he said, are preconditions for success. He commented
that announced Israeli plans to release 250 Fatah prisoners
is a &cheap bribe8 that will have no significant impact.
WALLES