BURMA -- INDONESIA LIKELY TO RATIFY ASEAN CHARTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003367

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS
NSC FOR E. PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ID BM
SUBJECT: BURMA -- INDONESIA LIKELY TO RATIFY ASEAN CHARTER
DESPITE MISGIVINGS

REF: A. STATE 164897


B. JAKARTA 3264

C. JAKARTA 3239

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Per Ref A, Mission continues to press key
executive and legislative interlocutors--as well as prominent
figures outside of government--regarding Burma and the ASEAN
Charter. Our contacts generally agree that some members of
the legislature are likely to voice strong, public criticism
of Burma as it debates the Charter, but that ultimately it
will approve the document. It seems possible that a public
DPR statement or reservation of some sort on Burma might be
released at the time the Charter is ratified. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) GOI PUSHING CHARTER: Pol/C delivered Ref A points to
Gudadi Sasongko, the Deputy Director for East Asia-Pacific
Affairs at the Department of Foreign Affairs (DEPLU) on
December 10. Pol/C stressed that all ASEAN members should
adhere to the Charter's principles on human rights and
democracy. Member-states should look for ways to use the
Charter review and ratification process to press Burma to
undertake needed reforms. Sasongo said he appreciated the
USG's views on the matter and would consider them as the GOI
moved forward. He said it was not yet clear how the
Yudhoyono administration would engage the legislature
regarding ratification of the Charter, but it was clear the
administration would press for ratification as soon as
possible.


3. (C) LEGISLATURE LIKELY TO RATIFY: Pol/C also raised the
matter with Arif Budiman, a key staffer to Agung Laksono, the
Speaker of Indonesia's national assembly (DPR). Noting the
DPR's strong stance regarding reform in Burma, Pol/C urged
Indonesian legislators to use the Charter ratification
process to continue pressing for progress there. Budiman
assured Pol/C that the DPR would thoroughly review the
Charter and discuss Burma. He expected the DPR to begin
debating the issue in January and thought the Yudhoyono
government would push for quick ratification. The DPR, he
believed, would ultimately ratify the Charter despite some
members' misgivings re Burma.


4. (C) Separately, senior political analyst Dewi Fortuna
Anwar of Jakarta's Habibie Center told DCM that feelings re
Burma were still strong in the DPR. While legislators would
ultimately endorse the Charter, there would likely be a lot
of harsh criticism of Burma and of the Yudhoyono
administration's response to the crisis, according to Anwar.
She said--although it was possible for the DPR to express its
reservations about Burma's status in the Charter through some
sort of non-binding resolution--such a step would be
unprecedented. In a separate meeting, Marzuki Darusman, a
member of the DPR's Commission I responsible for foreign
affairs, echoed this view. He told the DCM the DPR would
likely approve the Charter, but not without some strong
criticism of the Burmese regime. The DPR could formally
question Yudhoyono administration officials about the
Charter--a process referred to here as interpellation--and
possibly include a report of the interpellation in the formal
legislative record. This would be similar to a reservation,
he noted.


5. (C) EXTERNAL PRESSURE REMAINS CRITICAL: Dr. Anwar also
explained that ASEAN would likely return to "business as
usual" with Burma unless ASEAN's major dialogue partners
maintained pressure on the organization to take a tougher
line. She cautioned, however, that the United States would
isolate itself if it pressed the Burma issue alone. Instead,
she urged that the USG work with as many ASEAN dialogue
partners as possible, and also offered Australia and Japan as
potential partners on this issue.


6. (C) INDONESIA WANTS TO HELP: Visiting DASD James Clad
discussed Burma with a number of prominent Indonesian
interlocutors, including: senior political analyst Yusuf
Wanandi; retired general Agus Widjoyo; and former foreign
minister Ali Alatas. All agreed that Indonesia could play a
key role influencing Burma in a positive direction. They

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argued that Indonesia had become a democracy without
"revenge" against former military rulers--an example they
hoped could persuade the Burmese generals to move forward
with reform. Mission is working to arrange a meeting
requested by former FM Alatas with the Ambassador to discuss
Indonesia's possible role re Burma.

HUME