Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07JAKARTA3107
2007-11-08 08:53:00
SECRET
Embassy Jakarta
Cable title:
EX-GOVERNOR'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN SLOW TO GAIN
VZCZCXRO1167 OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM DE RUEHJA #3107/01 3120853 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 080853Z NOV 07 FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6975 INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4460 RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1521 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1437 RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 3542 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1085 RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 1988 RUEHBAD/AMCONSUL PERTH 0438 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RHHJJPI/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003107
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/B
NSC FOR EPHU
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: EX-GOVERNOR'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN SLOW TO GAIN
MOMENTUM
REF: A. JAKARTA 2776
B. JAKARTA 2540
C. JAKARTA 2674
JAKARTA 00003107 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b,d).
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003107
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/B
NSC FOR EPHU
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: EX-GOVERNOR'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN SLOW TO GAIN
MOMENTUM
REF: A. JAKARTA 2776
B. JAKARTA 2540
C. JAKARTA 2674
JAKARTA 00003107 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b,d).
1. (S) SUMMARY: Ex-Jakarta Governor Sutiyoso made a big
splash when he announced he was running for president (the
election is in 2009). The former general--who has been
actively barnstorming--has thus far failed to make a dent in
the polls. Even in the byzantine world of Indonesian
politics, some of the reasons purportedly underpinning
Sutiyoso's decision to get into the race are particularly
strange. With allegations of marital infidelity making the
rounds, Sutiyoso's presidential gambit--always considered a
long-shot--is hardly leaping out of the gate. END SUMMARY.
WAITING FOR TAKEOFF
2. (C) While Sutiyoso has been extremely active on the
campaign trail since his October 1 presidential announcement,
there does not appear to be much to show for it, so far.
According to political operative Dadan Irawan, Sutiyoso was
not "even registering" on most people's presidential radar
screens. Irawan told poloff that he considered Sutiyoso to
be a perfect VP candidate, but emphasized that Golkar--the
most influential party in the country--did not view him as a
legitimate presidential threat (Sutiyoso does not have a
political party affiliation). In addition, several
respectable Indonesian newspapers have reported that
Sutiyoso's national barnstorming tour has not translated into
any tangible gains in their polls. The most recent polling
by the Indonesian Survey Institute--the most respected
polling outfit in the country--puts Sutiyoso at just one
percent.
TO RUN OR NOT TO RUN?
3. (S) Indonesian politics are byzantine in their complexity
and reports about why Sutiyoso got into the race underscore
that. According to presidential staff aide T.B. Silalahi,
then Governor Sutiyoso requested an appointment with
President Yudhoyono in late September 2007 to discuss the
2009 presidential race. SBY appointed Silalahi to meet with
Sutiyoso. During the meeting, Sutiyoso asked Silalahi for
his counsel with a tricky dilemma he was facing. Former
President Megawati--who had already announced her candidacy
for the 2009 race (Ref B)--wanted Sutiyoso to join her ticket
as VP candidate. Sutiyoso, however, was looking for a polite
way to say "no"--he just did not want to play second fiddle
to Megawati and her husband.
4. (S) Silalahi said he encouraged Sutiyoso to run for
president himself. If his campaign stumbled, Silalahi told
him, SBY wanted Sutiyoso to know that there would be a place
for him "on SBY's team." If somehow he was able to win, SBY
wanted Sutiyoso to know that he would prefer to be beaten by
Sutiyoso over any of the other prospective candidates (they
are both former generals who worked together closely while in
the military). At a minimum, Silalahi told him, by running
for president Sutiyoso would have the perfect excuse for
turning down Megawati's invitation to join her ticket.
Sutiyoso went on to announce his candidacy for president on
October 1.
A SCANDAL?
5. (S) Reports making the rounds about Sutiyoso also mention
a possible scandal. Several Mission contacts report that the
biggest obstacle for Sutiyoso may be one that is not even in
the public domain yet--allegations of infidelity. In a
country where such charges are taken very seriously--see
SBY's recent defamation lawsuit over allegations he was
married previously (Ref C)--these rumors are considered
potentially significant. Now, playing on a bigger stage as a
presidential candidate, Sutiyoso's private life could
increasingly become subject to greater scrutiny.
JAKARTA 00003107 002.2 OF 002
MOMENTUM -- IT'S NEEDED
6. (S) As noted in Ref A, Sutiyoso will need to increase
significantly his national name recognition in order to have
any chance of successfully contesting the presidency. Though
he did a relatively effective job as governor of Jakarta for
10 years, Sutiyoso is not well-known beyond the capital. He
has time to get his name out with the election well over a
year away. That said, if the infidelity rumors go public,
Mission contacts believe Sutiyoso's campaign will quickly go
on life support.
HUME
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/B
NSC FOR EPHU
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: EX-GOVERNOR'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN SLOW TO GAIN
MOMENTUM
REF: A. JAKARTA 2776
B. JAKARTA 2540
C. JAKARTA 2674
JAKARTA 00003107 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b,d).
1. (S) SUMMARY: Ex-Jakarta Governor Sutiyoso made a big
splash when he announced he was running for president (the
election is in 2009). The former general--who has been
actively barnstorming--has thus far failed to make a dent in
the polls. Even in the byzantine world of Indonesian
politics, some of the reasons purportedly underpinning
Sutiyoso's decision to get into the race are particularly
strange. With allegations of marital infidelity making the
rounds, Sutiyoso's presidential gambit--always considered a
long-shot--is hardly leaping out of the gate. END SUMMARY.
WAITING FOR TAKEOFF
2. (C) While Sutiyoso has been extremely active on the
campaign trail since his October 1 presidential announcement,
there does not appear to be much to show for it, so far.
According to political operative Dadan Irawan, Sutiyoso was
not "even registering" on most people's presidential radar
screens. Irawan told poloff that he considered Sutiyoso to
be a perfect VP candidate, but emphasized that Golkar--the
most influential party in the country--did not view him as a
legitimate presidential threat (Sutiyoso does not have a
political party affiliation). In addition, several
respectable Indonesian newspapers have reported that
Sutiyoso's national barnstorming tour has not translated into
any tangible gains in their polls. The most recent polling
by the Indonesian Survey Institute--the most respected
polling outfit in the country--puts Sutiyoso at just one
percent.
TO RUN OR NOT TO RUN?
3. (S) Indonesian politics are byzantine in their complexity
and reports about why Sutiyoso got into the race underscore
that. According to presidential staff aide T.B. Silalahi,
then Governor Sutiyoso requested an appointment with
President Yudhoyono in late September 2007 to discuss the
2009 presidential race. SBY appointed Silalahi to meet with
Sutiyoso. During the meeting, Sutiyoso asked Silalahi for
his counsel with a tricky dilemma he was facing. Former
President Megawati--who had already announced her candidacy
for the 2009 race (Ref B)--wanted Sutiyoso to join her ticket
as VP candidate. Sutiyoso, however, was looking for a polite
way to say "no"--he just did not want to play second fiddle
to Megawati and her husband.
4. (S) Silalahi said he encouraged Sutiyoso to run for
president himself. If his campaign stumbled, Silalahi told
him, SBY wanted Sutiyoso to know that there would be a place
for him "on SBY's team." If somehow he was able to win, SBY
wanted Sutiyoso to know that he would prefer to be beaten by
Sutiyoso over any of the other prospective candidates (they
are both former generals who worked together closely while in
the military). At a minimum, Silalahi told him, by running
for president Sutiyoso would have the perfect excuse for
turning down Megawati's invitation to join her ticket.
Sutiyoso went on to announce his candidacy for president on
October 1.
A SCANDAL?
5. (S) Reports making the rounds about Sutiyoso also mention
a possible scandal. Several Mission contacts report that the
biggest obstacle for Sutiyoso may be one that is not even in
the public domain yet--allegations of infidelity. In a
country where such charges are taken very seriously--see
SBY's recent defamation lawsuit over allegations he was
married previously (Ref C)--these rumors are considered
potentially significant. Now, playing on a bigger stage as a
presidential candidate, Sutiyoso's private life could
increasingly become subject to greater scrutiny.
JAKARTA 00003107 002.2 OF 002
MOMENTUM -- IT'S NEEDED
6. (S) As noted in Ref A, Sutiyoso will need to increase
significantly his national name recognition in order to have
any chance of successfully contesting the presidency. Though
he did a relatively effective job as governor of Jakarta for
10 years, Sutiyoso is not well-known beyond the capital. He
has time to get his name out with the election well over a
year away. That said, if the infidelity rumors go public,
Mission contacts believe Sutiyoso's campaign will quickly go
on life support.
HUME