INDONESIA RIDES THE COMMODITIES BOOM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 JAKARTA 000309

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SUBJECT: INDONESIA RIDES THE COMMODITIES BOOM



1. (SBU) Summary. Indonesia's exports soared for the first time to
over $100 billion in 2006, underpinning respectable gross domestic
product (GDP) growth of 5.5% for the year. A 19% rise in non-oil
and gas exports, particularly commodities, over the first 11 months
of 2006 drove the country's strong export performance. Closer
analysis of Indonesia's trade data, however, indicates that 2006's
non-oil export boom largely resulted from high world commodity
prices rather than significant increases in export volumes, with
rising garment exports to Japan and the EU a modest exception.
Exports of Indonesia's top manufactured goods have remained flat or
declined, and the country's unemployment figures were stagnant at
10.3 percent in 2005-2006. In the short term, Indonesia can likely
depend on continuing strength in global commodity prices to support
solid export-led GDP growth. In the longer term, though, limited
new investment in manufacturing facilities and growing
infrastructure bottlenecks may prevent Indonesia from sustaining its
strong export performance and relatively high level of GDP growth if
commodity prices flatten out. Should commodity prices falter,
stubbornly high unemployment levels will likely place a spotlight on
the GOI's investment climate reforms and their success in boosting
Indonesia's manufacturing sector. End Summary.

Commodity Exports Drive Growth in 2006
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2. (U) Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) rose an estimated
5.5% year-on-year (YoY) in 2006, in large part due to strong growth
in exports and relatively limited expansion of imports. Total
exports in 2006 rose 17.6 percent YoY, and growth in net exports
(based on average quarterly contributions for the first nine months)
comprised approximately 45% of total GDP growth. By the same
calculations, growth in investment accounted for less than 4% of GDP
growth on average over the same period. Initial data for 2006
suggest that Indonesia's total export value exceeded $100 billion in
2006, up sharply from the $61 billion just three years ago.


3. (U) While Indonesia's oil and gas exports increased 10.9% (YoY)
during the first 11 months of 2006, the rapid increase in non-oil
exports, particularly commodities, drove Indonesia's strong export
performance. As illustrated in Table 1, strong growth in commodity
exports led the non-oil export expansion, particularly rubber and
rubber products, copper, coal, ash residue and palm oil, which grew
between 17% and 60%(YoY) during the January to November 2006 period.
Exports of paper and knitted garments also performed well during in
2006, increasing 22% and 18%,(YoY),respectively, during the first
three quarters of 2006. (Note: Data for paper and knitted garment
exports in October and November are not yet available. End note.)


4. (U) In contrast, growth in manufacturing exports over the same
period stalled. Shipments of electronic tools and appliances,
Indonesia's top categories of manufactured goods exports, fell 0.2%
year to date through the end of November, and machinery and
mechanical tool exports slumped almost 4% percent over the same
period. Most analysts attribute the weak manufacturing export
performance to low levels of new investment and infrastructure
bottlenecks.

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Table 1: Top Non-oil and Gas Exports
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Jan-Nov Jan-Nov Pct
2006 2005 Change
-------------- --------------
Electronics 6.7 6.7 -0.2
Coal 5.9 4.2 31.4
Palm Oil 5.3 4.5 16.7
Rubber 5.2 3.2 59.9
Ash/Residue 4.2 3.0 42.0
Machinery/Tools 4.0 4.1 -3.6
Garment(not knitted) 3.1 2.8 10.5
Wood/Wood Products 3.0 2.8 5.3
Copper 1.8 1.1 60.5
Chemical Organic 1.7 1.4 21.3
-------------- ---
Total Non-oil/Gas
Exports 71.9 60.1 19.6
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Source: Ministry of Trade


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Price Effects Drive Commodity Export Growth
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5. (U) Indonesia's export boom largely has resulted from rising
world commodity prices, driven by strong demand for commodities from
China and the developed world, rather than from an increase in
export volumes. An assessment of rubber, palm oil, cooper ore, and
nickel ore export values and volumes reveals that, during the first
three quarters of 2006, export values of these commodities rose
significantly more rapidly than volumes (YoY). For example, during
the first three quarter of 2006 the value of rubber exports rose 85%
(YoY) compared to a 33% (YoY) increase in export volumes.
Similarly, the value of crude palm oil exports increased 12% (YoY)
over the same period, while volumes of crude palm oil exports rose
by roughly half that amount. In the case of metals, the value of
cooper and nickel ore rose 12% and 4.5% (YoY),respectively, over
the same period, but the volume of these exports declined 19% and
46% (YoY),respectively. (Note: We based YoY comparisons on actual
figures for 2006 and estimated figures for 2005, using 75% of total
2005 export value and volume figures as a proxy for actual January
to September 2005 figures. This likely provides a conservative
estimate of YoY increases given that commodity export values and
volumes generally stay constant or increase during the fourth
quarter. Volume data for coal exports in 2006 were not available.
End note.)

Commodity Exports to China Continue to Expand Rapidly
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6. (U) As illustrated in Table 2, non-oil and gas exports to China
continued to increase rapidly during the first eleven months of
2006, rising 36% (YoY). Non-oil and gas exports to Korea and
Australia also rose rapidly, at 41% and 40%, respectively, albeit
from a lower base. A rapid increase in commodity exports to China
comprised the bulk of the increase in total Indonesian non-oil
exports to that country. Data on growth in Indonesian commodity
exports to China during the first three quarter of the year reveal
that the value of rubber and palm oil exports to China increased
148% and 97% percent (YoY),respectively. Conversely, wood and wood
product exports to China decreased slightly during the first three
quarters of 2006 on a YoY basis, in line with slower overall growth
in Indonesian wood exports. (Note: 2005 direction of trade data
for other commodity categories currently is not available. In
addition, the value of 2005 commodity exports to China used in this
calculation is 75% of total 2005 figures, reflecting the data
limitations described in the previous section. End note.)


7. (U) Japan, the European Union (EU) and the United States remained
Indonesia's three largest export destinations through the first 11
months of 2006, with exports to those areas increasing a healthy
25%, 16%, and 14%, respectively. Growth in both commodity and
manufacturing exports (particularly garment exports) drove the
expansion of trade with these trading partners. As indicated in
Table 2, growth in Indonesia's exports to Japan, the EU, the US and
China accounted for 53% of the country's total non-oil export
growth.

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Table 2: 2006 Direction of Trade, $ billions
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Jan-Nov Jan-Nov YoY Pct Growth
2006 2005 Change Contrib*
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Japan 10.9 8.7 25 19
European Union 10.7 9.2 16 13
United States 9.8 8.6 14 10
Singapore 7.1 6.4 11 6
China 4.9 3.6 36 11
Malaysia 3.5 2.9 21 5
Korea 3.1 2.2 41 8
Taiwan 2.1 1.6 31 4
Australia 1.4 1.0 40 4
Other 18.4 15.9 16 21
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Total 71.9 60.1 20 100
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* Percentage contribution to total non-oil export growth rate.
Source: Ministry of Trade


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Export Performance in Line with Regional Competitors
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8. (U) Indonesia's export growth is largely in line with regional
competitors, such as Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and
Singapore, but lags regional economic giants China and India.
According to Citigroup, total exports from Malaysia, Thailand, the
Philippines and Singapore will grow in an estimated range of 13-16%
(YoY) in 2006, slightly below Indonesia's 17.6% export growth this
year. Looking more closely at data for Malaysia, one of Indonesia's
closest competitors in terms of export composition, Indonesia's
non-oil and gas exports again compare favorably, growing over 19%
(YoY) during the first 11 months of 2006, in contrast to 10% (YoY)
growth in Malaysia. However, Malaysia outperformed Indonesia in
terms of exports of electronic goods, with Malaysian electronic
exports expanding 7% YoY during the January to November period,
compared to the 0.2% contraction in electronics exports in
Indonesia. As state above, Indonesia's export performance
significantly lags that of China and India, where analysts expect
exports to expand by 25% or more (YoY) in 2006.

Comment: Export Growth a Blessing and a Curse
--------------


9. (SBU) Despite record exports and respectable GDP growth in 2006,
Indonesia's open unemployment rate has remained stagnant at 10.3
percent throughout 2005 and 2006. In the short term, rising world
commodity prices will likely continue to support export and GDP
growth in Indonesia. Surging demand for basic commodities from
China and other emerging markets has shown no signs of abating to
date, and demand for crude palm oil and other biofuel feedstocks is
rising in the EU and other developed country markets. In the longer
term, however, continuing low levels of investment in Indonesia's
manufacturing sector and growing infrastructure bottlenecks will
likely limit Indonesia's ability to maintain current export and GDP
growth levels if commodity prices flatten out. If or when this
happens, it will be all the more important for the GOI to have put
in place meaningful reforms making the investment climate more
transparent and competitive.

PASCOE