WAYS FORWARD ON THE BURMA ISSUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003044

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR P, EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/RSP, DRL, DRL/AWH
NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV XC BM ID
SUBJECT: WAYS FORWARD ON THE BURMA ISSUE

JAKARTA 00003044 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: DepPol/C Daniel E. Turnbull, reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Michael Vatikiotis of the Henry Dumont
Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue offered ideas on moving the
Burma situation forward, after discussions with leaders in
the region, including Indonesian Foreign Minister Wirajuda.
Vatikiotis said it was important that ASEAN unanimously
ratify the proposed Charter and that the long-term benefits
of a strong Charter not be sacrificed for "short-term gains
in Burma." He said ASEAN would act on Burma only in 2008,
proposed Indonesia play a role as "convenor" of a process
based on the "cocktail party" model that proved successful in
Cambodia, and emphasized that any discussion with the Burmese
regime needed to include its legitimate concerns of regional
stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) DCM met with met with Michael Vatikiotis, Regional
Director for the Henry Dumont Centre for Humanitarian
Dialogue, on October 30 to discuss possible ways forward on
Burma. Vatikiotis, (please protect),who is based in
Singapore, has been a regular and very lucid interlocutor on
a range of conflict resolution issues, including the Middle
East. The discussion followed a meetings Vatikiotes had had
with Indonesian officials and policy advisers, including
Foreign Minister Wirajuda, earlier in the day. The views
expressed below are Vatikiotis' synthesis of those meetings
and other recent discussions he has had within the region on
Burma. His views were informed by but do not entirely
reflect the view of the Indonesian government.


3. (C) Vatikiotis made several major points on Burma:

-- IMPORTANCE OF ASEAN CHARTER RATIFICATION: Vatikiotis
stressed the importance of the ASEAN draft Charter and its
ratification at the November 18 ASEAN summit. This
represented a sustained effort by ASEAN over many years, was
a significant achievement that the international community
should support, and should not be sacrificed for "short-term
gains in Burma." The Charter, particularly its human-rights
provisions, would become a standard against which to measure
Burma (and other ASEAN members) in the future. Discouraging
Burma from signing would leave a permanent mark on it,
allowing Burma to claim exception from its provisions.
Moreover, Singapore was cool to the Charter, and
non-signature by Burma (and Thailand) would play into
Singapore's hands by weakening the Charter's authority. The
international community, in Vatikiotis' view, should support
the Charter's unanimous adoption at this year's summit.

-- ACTION IN 2008: Vatikiotis said ASEAN leaders were not
looking to resolve the Burma issue at the ASEAN summit, and
were not likely to take further action as a group until 2008.
He suggested there were various options for Burma's
representation at the summit, which could amount to some
level of differentiation. Vatikiotis pointed out that
Thailand would take over as ASEAN chair in 2008 and would be
able to exert more leverage than Singapore in that capacity.

-- ROLE AS INDONESIA AS "CONVENOR": Vatikiotis suggested the
process used two decades earlier in Cambodia could serve as a
model, where Indonesia, using what was aptly described as a
"cocktail party" approach, had convened relevant players for
an open-ended discussion. These discussions had helped open
the way to resolution. Vatikiotis recommended Indonesia, and
specifically former FM Ali Alatas, assume this role.
Vatikiotis offered the ASEAN-centered "convenor" approach as
an alternative to UN Special Envoy Gambari's Contact Group.
Indonesia wanted to play a role but was not in the current
Troika, he noted, and this would be an ideal way to involve
Indonesia. In a recent discussion with DCM, Indonesian CSIS
foreign-policy expert Rizal Sukma had broached the idea of a
similar discussion among the relevant Burmese parties only.
Vatikiotis believed the Troika and China should be included
as well, in addition to the Burmese parties. In that regard,
Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi appeared to be
ready for dialogue but so far had not said so in interviews;
she needed to do that, in Vatikiotis' view.

JAKARTA 00003044 002.2 OF 002



-- INCLUDE LEGITIMATE JUNTA CONCERNS: Any discussion with
the Burmese regime, Vatikiotis stressed, must include its
concerns, i.e., regional stability, territorial integrity and
sovereignty. It would be difficult, he said, to get the
generals to the table without some discussion of these issues.


4. (C) Commenting on the dynamics among ASEAN members,
Vatikiotis noted that, in his opinion, Indonesia and Malaysia
generally considered Singapore to be too pro-Western and
therefore were particularly sensitive to initiatives by
Singapore. When Western capitals praised Singaporean
initiatives, Indonesia and Malaysia tended to interpret
Singapore's actions, often mistakenly, as a reflection of
Western capitals' desires or requests.

HUME