ISTANBUL OFFICE CALLS UNDERLINE IMPORTANCE OF

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000868

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2022
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU IR IZ
SUBJECT: ISTANBUL OFFICE CALLS UNDERLINE IMPORTANCE OF
ECONOMY ON POLITICS

REF: A. ISTANBUL 624


B. STATE 132207

C. ANKARA 2350

Classified By: Consul General Sharon Wiener for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) Summary and comment. EUR/SE desk officer Danielle
Garbe met recently with TESEV President Can Paker, former
Special Envoy General Edip Baser and academician Kemal
Kirisci to hear views on Turkey's domestic politics, its
foreign relations and the bureaucracy's view of the fight
against the PKK. A common theme in two of three meetings was
the importance of Turkey's growing economy on political and
foreign policy decisions. As democracy and the economy
strengthen and mature, Turks and their more responsive - and
probably freer - politicians may take another look at the
bottom line and ask how agreements and alliances affect their
economic well-being and security. If allies want to stay in
the game, they may be forced to play with a closer eye on
economic rather than traditional, security-based
partnerships. And if the traditional elite suspect we're
less than transparent on a point they claim is central to
Turkish security - the PKK - the game gets harder. These
comments echo the message TOBB Chairman Rifat Hisarciklioglu
recently made to EEB A/S Sullivan in Washington -- strong
economic ties can bolster the bilateral relationship during
tense political periods. (Ref B.) End summary and comment.

FIRST - A WORD FROM THE SEASONED ELITE
--------------


2. (S) General Baser, referring to September 11 headlines
claiming direct American assistance to PKK and/or PJAK
terrorists in Iraq, elaborated upon his July claim that
Turkish intelligence had captured Americans on film at Kandil
Mountain (Ref A.) As Turkey's former Special Envoy to Combat
the PKK, he told Garbe that he and U.S. Special Envoy General
(ret.) Joseph Ralston had together viewed media in TGS
Buyukanit's office depicting "Barzani's people supplying
food, water and ammunition to PKK" in northern Iraq. The
tape also showed "a few American soldiers in the background."
According to Baser, Ralston's later explanation, after
sharing the footage in the U.S., was that "the soldiers were
there by chance - passers-by near a PKK control post." No
Turk is satisfied with that response, according to Baser.
Baser said the soldiers were recognizable as Americans
because of their uniforms and the appearance of their faces
and skin color. He expressed surprise the U.S. had not used
psychological warfare against the PKK. The General also
proffered a defensive statement that poor economic and social
conditions in Turkey's southeast were no different than
conditions in villages near the Aegean and in central Turkey
because of poor civil administration.

CAN PAKER: POLITICS IS FREER
--------------


3. (C) TESEV President Can Paker on the other hand focused
on Justice and Development Party's (AKP's) success in
Parliamentary elections and the election of Abdullah Gul as
President of Turkey. According to Paker, a new era has
dawned in Turkish politics - an era marked by a lack of
civil/military bureaucratic monitoring of politics. From its
foundation as a republic until now, Turkey's "masters and
founders" had manipulated the political process by means of
the presidency, A new middle class spawned by economic
liberalization in the late 1980s has overtaken Turkey's
"traditional, privileged, self-described 'secular' middle
class" founded and protected since the formation of the
republic in 1923. Paker said TESEV surveys indicate a new
entrepreneurial class - both rational and practical owing to
success through hard work - now accounts for about 70% of
Turkey's middle class with the balance held by the classical,
"conceptually rational" and educated middle class, identified
with the civil and military bureaucratic elites. Today, both
wings of the middle class fear the other.


4. (C) The military exploits the fear of the (more devout)
entrepreneurs, according to Paker, by playing the secular
card; he believes the new President will not take the bait.
Ten year ago, with Abdullah Gul sitting in his office, Paker
counseled Gul to avoid politicking on the basis of religion
and nationalism because Turks do not vote based on those
factors. Gul had laughed and related an experience, years
before, when he had begun to wax eloquent on religion in a

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rural tea house. Within five minutes, he lost his audience;
they were more interested in better harvests, acquiring
adequate farm equipment and getting their daughters married.
Gul has not been forgotten the lesson: his countrymen are
practical, not focused on the esoterica of Islam.


5. (C) Paker discounted the possibility of a military
intervention against the current government because the
resulting economic disruption would be too great for them to
"survive." The economy today boasts a USD 400 billion GDP,
doubling the USD 200 billion economy before the crisis of
2001 when the GDP shrank to USD 186 billion. A military coup
would severely damage the economy and scare off foreign
investment. The military, in these circumstances, "would be
finished," according to Paker.

KEMAL KIRISCI: IT'S THE ECONOMY...
--------------


6. (C) Professor Kemal Kirisci, Chairman of Bogazici
University's faculty of Political Science and International
Relations, agreed in large part with Paker's views. He
framed his academician's perspective, though, by alluding to
Immanuel Kant's idea of a democratic peace and Richard
Rosecrance's theory of healthy, modern state-to-state
relations based on trade. He suggested both theories
illustrated why Turkey did not carry out a cross-border
operation against the PKK in northern Iraq early this summer,
arguing that not only business fora TUSIAD and TOBB but even
Republican People's Party's (CHP's) own Deniz Baykal
pressured the military against a CBO in light of the
potential harm to trade. Turkey, he said, had become a
"trading economy," ala Rosecrance, whose economic strength
compared favorably with most of its neighbors. The only
exceptions are Greece, Russia and Iran. Turkey only lags
behind the latter two because of their significant energy
reserves.


7. (C) Kirisci said Turkey's stability and economic growth
are now a (small) engine of growth for the region, citing
Turkish business retailing and industrial expansion in
neighboring countries, including Bulgaria. The implications
of Turkey's becoming a "trading state" have profound
implications for the U.S.-Turkey relationship, according to
Kirisci, with Turkey tilting ever more definitely to states
whose trading relationship complements Turkey's economic
growth. It was for reasons of trade he speculated the GOT
would "pull something off" with respect to a solution for
Cyprus.


8. (C) Even luminaries in the Nationalist Movement Party
(MHP) have significant economic interests in northern Iraq
which will influence their view of that relationship, he
claimed. The AKP mayor of Kars, near Turkey's border with
Armenia, strongly favors opening Turkey's border with that
country. In a good-natured poke at his guests, Kirisci
wondered if somehow the U.S. could "nudge" democracy forward
in America - Turkey is now a full-fledged democracy, he
maintained, and politicians here look over their shoulders,
meaning the public will for peace and growing economic
security will continue changing the way Turkey's politicians
view their neighborhood and their relationship with the U.S.
WIENER