TURKEY'S SPECIAL ENVOY FOR IRAQ BRIEFS STAFFDEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISTANBUL 000692

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF TU IZ JO SY
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S SPECIAL ENVOY FOR IRAQ BRIEFS STAFFDEL
GROVE

Classified By: Acting Principal Officer Sandra Oudkirk for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) GOT Special Envoy for Iraq Ambassador Oguz Celikkol
told staffers that Sunnis in Iraq tell Turkey they feel
excluded from decision-making; absent consensus-based
decisions in Iraq, the community or communities feeling left
out will forcefully resist. He reported great Saudi
discomfort with the Sunni sense of isolation. Nothing
functions, he said. Iraq needed the participation of all
groups but there is no history of democracy and there is
currently no consensus-building process. A faction feeling
powerful demands more and the Sunnis feel like losers.


2. (C) Iraq,s other neighbors tell Turkey that the U.S. has
the responsibility to "make things right." Celikkol said the
U.S. should be more firm with Iraqi factions. The factions
depend on the U.S. and so the U.S. is in a unique position to
pressure these groups. Neighboring countries can play a
role. Turkey is trying to influence the Sunnis, but U.S.
pressure can be decisive. Besides, he said, Iraqis are more
dependent on the U.S. than the U.S. on Iraqi factions. Many
Arab nations have "reservations" with respect to the Shia but
it seemed the U.S. was not applying much pressure to the
Shia. Celikkol hoped Iran saw that division in Iraq would be
very damaging for everyone.


3. (C) Ambassador Celikkol reported there were at least 1.6
million Iraqi refugees - some coming and going - into Syria
and Jordan. Syria, which received about one million, is
badly stretched in offering services to the refugees.
Providing education for Iraqi children and fuel subsidies,
particularly for diesel, is especially difficult for Syria.
Petty crime is increasing in Syria as wealthy refugees give
way to a much poorer class. Baathist ideology will prevent
the regime from imposing a visa requirement. Iraqi
Christians are also making their way to Syria. Celikkol also
noted some 700 Christian refugees in Istanbul. It is
impossible to know a precise number since many Iraqi refugees
blend into Istanbul or Ankara seeking unregistered
employment.


4. (C) Celikkol told the staffdel members Turkey had
delivered a message for the U.S. regarding foreign fighters
traversing Syria en route to Iraq. Damascus told Turkey they
make transit by Arabs difficult. Bureaucratic measures at
airports in Damascus and Aleppo curb use by men under 30. On
the other hand, Iraqi authorities say the land border is
difficult to control and that the "border is very open."
Staffdel member Paul Grove asked Ambassador Celikkol if Syria
would close the border should refugees increase
significantly. Celikkol did not know.


5. (C) Celikkol told staffdel no one in the region can
believe the Americans would actually withdraw from Iraq.
After all, he said, energy security and the security of
Israel are very much related to Iraq. In Celikkol,s mind,
the Sunnis presented the greatest problem should Iraq become
a divided state. In that case, Celikkol advised that Al
Qaeda would grow very strong, a situation "we must prevent."


6. (U) Staffdel Grove did not have the opportunity to clear
this cable.
OUDKIRK