STAFFDEL MAKOVSKY/GUREVICH DISCUSS ELECTIONS, VIEW

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ISTANBUL 000624

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2022
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: STAFFDEL MAKOVSKY/GUREVICH DISCUSS ELECTIONS, VIEW
OF THE U.S. IN ISTANBUL


Classified By: Consul General Deborah K. Jones for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. In separate July 7 meetings, House
Committee on Foreign Affairs (HCFA) Senior Staff Members Alan
Makovsky and Gene Gurevich discussed the July 22
parliamentary elections, the possibility of a cross-border
operation (CBO) into northern Iraq, and the effects of a
possible U.S. Armenian Genocide Resolution (AGR) on
U.S.-Turkish relations with Milliyet newspaper columnist Sami
Kohen and editor Sedat Ergin. Both journalists warned that
there is public pressure to launch a CBO into northern Iraq,
but they believed that such an operation would not be
launched during the election cycle. They also cautioned
against AGR passage and suggested that the Turkish response
would be severe, including possible suspension of U.S. use of
Incirlik airbase and a move by Turkey to seek other allies
that would weaken the country's traditional
Western-orientation. Staffdel also met with former Istanbul
Mayor Bedrettin Dalan who charged the USG with supporting the
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the terrorist
PKK. END SUMMARY

JULY 22 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
--------------


2. (SBU) Kohen told Makovsky and Gurevich that the July 22
parliamentary elections are being held properly and orderly
in an atmosphere of freedom. He said that no one has
complained that they are not free elections and that many
parties are participating, including the small Communist
Party. Makovsky added, and Kohen agreed, that there is no
comparison to other elections in the region.


3. (SBU) Kohen explained that although secularism is an
issue currently preoccupying intellectuals, the economy is
the "bread and butter issue" that affects the
man-on-the-street. He noted that AKP will benefit because
people are fed up with the high cost of living and with
corruption; under AKP's leadership there have been
quantifiable improvements, including a lower rate of
unemployment, a higher standard of living, and a more
controlled rate of inflation.


4. (SBU) Both Kohen and Ergin focused on the parties likely
to pass the ten percent threshold of national votes needed to
enter parliament, including AKP, the Republican People's
Party (CHP),and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Kohen
said that AKP will not win as many seats as they currently
hold, but that they will most likely still be able to form a
single-party government. He noted that although the CHP's
vote strength may increase, they will be "unable to win due
to party leader Deniz Baykal's failures."


5. (SBU) Kohen cautioned that while both the CHP and the AKP
have moved towards the center and many parties are running
unexpected candidates, the basic ideologies of the parties
have not changed. Using the example of former ambassador and
current MHP candidate Gunduz Aktan, he said that Aktan would
either have to accept the MHP platform or resign because the
party will ultimately remain the same. Kohen also noted that
if the Kurdish independent candidates get twenty seats in the
new parliament, they can form a parliamentary group, which
could then join a coalition. Erdogan, when whem commenting
on the possibility of the AKP accepting such a coalition,
caused a huge controversy by stating, "if those independents
are committed to the constitution, including the territorial
integrity of Turkey, then I'm ready to have anyone join our
government."


6. (SBU) Ergin also commented on the new candidates for
parliament, noting Erdogan "purged" about 150 current MPs he
viewed as too difficult to control from the party list for
the upcoming elections. Ergin said that the majority of
these members were those who voted against the March 1
decree, which would have allowed coalition forces to open a
northern front into Iraq through Turkey.


7. (SBU) Kohen briefly discussed the referendum on
consititutional amendments that would allow for popular
election of the president. Kohen said that the AKP could
propose a compromise candidate for president, but that
"compromise is an alien concept in Turkish politics,
otherwise it wouldn't have come to early elections". He said
that if AKP wants to drag out the process, they can use the
referendum as an excuse and let the presidential election

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wait until after the referendum.

POSSIBILITIES OF A CROSS-BORDER OPERATION INTO NORTHERN IRAQ
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) While he "wouldn't bet on anything", Kohen suspects
Turkey will not go into Iraq because despite public pressure,
political pressure, and potential embarrassment for FM
Abdullah Gul and the Foreign Ministry, the government is
quite conscious of the dangers of a CBO. He said that
although Erdogan and Gul have been paying increasing lip
service to the possibility of an operation, Gul recalled the
Ottoman defeat by the Russians at Sarikamis, which lead to
the deaths of many Ottoman soldiers because of poor timing
and hasty planning. Kohen said that this comparison seemed
to suggest an awareness of the difficulties of launching an
attack.


9. (SBU) If Turkey carries out a CBO, Kohen said the
government and the military must decide whether to just try
to eliminate the PKK, or whether to also target Kurdistan
Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Nechervan Idris
Barzani. Makvosky said that a senior MFA official likened
Barzani to Abdullah Ocalan, the recently arrested founder of
the PKK. Kohen responded that there are people who believe
that Turkey needs to strike a blow to the Kurdish leadership
to remind people that Turkey "should not be played with" and
to make Kurds more cooperative in the future. He, however,
dismissed an extensive operation as an option and said that
getting rid of Barzani would not be easy and Turkish
involvement could become similar to U.S. involvement in Iraq.
He also said that an extended attack would provoke Kurds in
Turkey's southeast to become more antagonistic because there
is already sympathy for Barzani. He reassured Makovsky and
Gurevich that no one in power claims that Turkey should try
to occupy Mosul or Kirkuk. Many people supporting the
operation have compared its unilateral nature to Ataturk's
War of Independence, but that this is no longer the 1920s and
warfare has changed. Instead, he said Turkey could engage in
a short-time, limited operation that would satisfy Turkish
public opinion and not unduly anger either Washington or
Brussels.


10. (SBU) A CBO would particularly impact relations with the
European Union, Kohen noted. Makovsky added that EU
Commissioner for Enlargement Ollie Rehn told him that if
Turkey did launch an attack on northern Iraq, the EU would
ask for a "time out" on Turkey's accession talks. Kohen
commented that with U.S. relations Turkey can always hope for
highs and lows, but if talks are suspended with the EU, they
will not be easy to resume, given the increasing disinterest
of many EU members in Turkey's candidacy.

THE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE RESOLUTION
--------------


11. (SBU) Both Kohen and Ergin spoke forcefully about the
negative effects of an AGR being passed. Although Makovsky
assured them that Congress was very conscious of the effect
such a resolution would have on the July 22 elections, he
also warned that both the Speaker and the Majority Leader are
committed to seeing the resolution reach the floor in the
House of Representatives. Kohen said that even if an AGR
were only passed in the House, that would be damaging enough
and a "severe blow" to U.S.-Turkish relations. He said that
the passage of an AGR immediately after the elections would
put pressure on AKP, in an atmosphere that is already charged
because of perceived inaction on northern Iraq and the likely
increased strength of the opposition. He said that Erdogan
cannot remain inactive with regard to tension with the USG
over northern Iraq and an AGR. Ergin echoed Kohen's
statements, noting that public repercussions to an AGR would
be severe and citing an increasing sense of nationalism among
many Turks. When Makovsky asked about possible closure of
the U.S. airbase in Incirlik, Ergin said that he would write
an editorial openly encouraging the government to suspend use
of the base until further assessment could be made. If the
U.S. Congress passed an AGR, "(Turkey) should also do
something to hurt (the U.S.). There must be a time. We
should get even."

LOOKING ELSEWHERE FOR ALLIES: A POSSIBLE SHIFT IN TURKISH
FOREIGN POLICY
--------------
--------------


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12. (SBU) Kohen and Ergin emphasized that the current
Turkish frustration with U.S. reactions to the possibility of
a CBO and the AGR could lead to a shift in Turkey's western
orientation. Both said that in spite of assertions by some
U.S. politicians, Turkey no longer needs the U.S. in the same
way it did in the 1980s and 1990s, during the era of Soviet
threats and economic instability. The current attitude is
less pro-Western than before, but AKP has managed to maintain
it, even with increasing friction over issues relating to
terrorism. Recently, however, high-level officials have said
that if U.S.-Turkish relations sour, Turkey would have a
wide-spectrum of potential allies, including Iran, India, and
China. While Kohen acknowledged that some of these options
could be seen as "added values," they should never be
substituted for current relationships, particularly with
respect to world vision and Turkey,s western orientation.
The U.S. is absolutely more influential than the EU, Kohen
confirmed. While Turkey would be disappointed if left by the
EU, it has bilateral relations with member countries, so
there would be no shift in general foreign policy. With the
U.S., Kohen said, the response would be much more dramatic.

UNEXPECTED MEETING WITH BEDRETTIN DALAN
--------------


13. (C) Expecting to meet retired General Edip Baser,
staffdel instead was ushered into Yeditepe University Trustee
Board Chairman Bedrettin Dalan,s office, along with General
Baser, where Dalan led the conversation. Dalan warmed to his
two points quickly, introducing the first by noting his goal
at Yeditepe University is to create "a modern, secular
generation that will oppose AKP - a narrow-minded party."
The Turkish public is intensely patient; they will wait until
the very end but then, they will react swiftly and certainly.
AKP is trying to fight "the system" but we know the Turkish
public will react without hesitation and with conviction at
the right time to defeat this plague. This is why my friends
and I feel very confident. Meanwhile, foreign investors are
seeing a false paradise. The deficit has mushroomed five
times larger than when AKP took office. It is time for the
country to face this; there will be a change after the
elections.


14. (C) Dalan said he "knows" the USG is supporting the AKP,
despite the "official" answer that the U.S. works with the
government in power. All the intellectuals in the country
believe this. This is the reason over 90% of Turks are
against the U.S. today - official U.S. support for AKP. "If
America supports the fundamentalists, we will not be
pro-American. If this continues, you,ll lose the support of
the Turkish people completely." Asked for examples, Dalan
said former U.S. Ambassador Robert Pearson, before the 2002
general election, systematically approached top Turkish
businessmen enlisting support for AKP. His message: the
U.S. supports AKP and the U.S. wants to see you supporting
AKP, too. Makovsky said that knowing Ambassador Pearson, he
found this very hard to believe.


15. (S) Turks also perceive the U.S. as supporting the PKK,
charged Dalan. Just look at the three PKK escapees quoted
widely in the local press in early July who claimed they
witnessed the transfer of heavy arms from Americans directly
to PKK camps on Kandil mountain. He went on, accusing U.S.
military personnel of visiting the PKK. "We,ve heard this
from (Stephen) Hadley and General Ralston. Our own
intelligence tells us this." Separately, Baser told staffdel
that Turkish intelligence supplied intelligence (video) of
American military personnel meeting with PKK representatives.
Pressed by Makovsky, Baser backtracked a bit and said that
it had perhaps been northern Iraqi personnel meeting with PKK
representatives. Makovsky told Dalan he didn,t believe for
one second the U.S. supports the PKK and outlined why. Dalan
said Barzani is a bully threatening Turkey. "Someone should
shut his mouth," said Dalan. Finally, he complained that a
huge American military base was being constructed in northern
Iraq to diminish Turkey,s importance.


16. (C) Comment. The meetings at Milliyet newspaper and
Yeditepe University underscored the rising tension in
U.S.-Turkish relations surrounding a possible CBO into
northern Iraq and a potential AGR. Kohen, Ergin and Dalan,s
remarks make clear that these issues are viewed within Turkey
as both sensitive and important within Turkey and continued
disagreements with the U.S. government could lead to a
reversal in the pro-Western attitude of the Turkish
population and government. Whatever else they indicate,

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Dalan's comments reflect the extreme exasperation of the
secular elites with continued AKP popularity and concomittant
suspicion that outside forces must be supporting the party.
End comment.
JONES