TURKISH DEMOCRACY: ISOLATION AND TRADITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000517

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2027
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH DEMOCRACY: ISOLATION AND TRADITION

REF: A. ISTANBUL 427

B. ANKARA 1416

Classified By: Consul General Deborah K. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary. Sabanci University political science
professor Ali Carkoglu argued in a recent meeting that
traditional Kemalists - the military, the courts, Turkey's
bureaucracy - are insulated from normal Turkish society and
have no stake in its improvement. A siege mentality and
sense of isolation is fostered from the earliest school years
when children are shown a map of Turkey dismembered by the
1920 Sevres Treaty. Military officers with a desire to rise
above Colonel scrupulously avoid education abroad of more
than two years' duration; otherwise, superiors assume they
would lose touch with the Turkish mindset. End summary.


2. (SBU) Carkoglu, who also follows poll modeling, research
methods and voting behavior, poured cold water on published
"polling" saying these were mere expressions of the
publisher's hunches or preferences. He decried the absence
of methodological integrity in published polls in Turkey.
The Turkish polling companies like ANAR, SONAR, Pollmark, and
so forth, rely on untrained armies of poorly paid recruits
given no direction on targeting specific respondents.
Individuals hired for polling legwork lack training and may
ask whomever they please, focusing on numbers rather than
accurate sampling. Results generally lack minimum
demographic data and control questions such as how a
respondent voted in the previous election. (Note. While
this may be true for many companies, some pursue more
rigorous methods. End note.) Carkoglu is seeking funding
for his own poll to be conducted in July focused on party
preferences.

A LIBERALLY-MINDED VIEW OF THE WAY THINGS ARE
--------------


3. (C) Apparently lacking an ideological
(secularist/Kemalist/or even religious) edge, and sounding
more like a U.S. liberal arts professor than one from a top
Turkish institution (he has a PhD from SUNY),Carkoglu
discussed his views on the current scene in Turkey. The
courts, higher education system, the military and vast parts
of the bureaucracy, he said, are cut off from normal society.
Court justices, for instance, ride special private buses to
work. Their perks, privileges and immunities insulate them
from the economy, from any conflict with the justice system
and from society at large. They do not want to mix with the
common man. They stay within their own protected world --
including separate living compounds, restaurants and holiday
resorts. Due to this privileged cocoon, they have no
personal interest in improvements to economic, social,
infrastructure or other conditions.


4. (C) Carkoglu said that military officers can study in the
U.S. (and presumably other NATO countries) no more than two
years if they hope to rise above the rank of Colonel.
Otherwise, the rationale goes, the officers would "think like
you." Those that study in the U.S. for shorter times write
regular reports and are debriefed upon their return to Turkey
- at intervals and at the end of training abroad. The
military, he said, is growing more rigid, fearing loss of its
currently protected status.


5. (C) Comments by Marmara Group member Ilter Turan along
with former Ambassador to the U.S. Faruk Logoglu (see Turkish
Daily News op-ed May 23) at the mid-May Forum Istanbul
conference tend to support Carkoglu's assessment. Ambassador
Logoglu cast Turkey in the role of victim, surrounded (still)
by conflict and terrorism, Iranian influence, Sunni/Shia
clashes and countries lacking "democracy and secularism."
Moderating one session, Ilter Turan shut down former Iraqi
cabinet minister and ethnic Kurd Bakthiar Amin for arguing
that Turkey's Kurdish problem is largely of its own making
and that offering normal human rights to the minority would
cause the PKK problem to melt away. Turan proceeded to
lecture Amin about the "norms of diplomacy", saying Turkish
diplomatic relations would be conducted only in diplomatic
channels. Amin further rankled Turkish participants when he
called for genuine dialogue to replace cheap shots in the
press.

GETTING TO THE "RIGHT" VIEW
--------------


ISTANBUL 00000517 002 OF 002



6. (C) Charkoglu argues that insularity and
self-righteousness begin in the first year of school, when
children are shown a map of Turkey. Teachers emphasize how
Turkey's enemies, (British, French, Greeks, Italians, etc.)
systematically carved up the country leaving only a small,
land-locked core by 1920. This history and the incessant,
popular repetition of imminent threat from outside becomes an
excuse to wall off enemies - and everything non-Turkish fits
this enemy label, he says. Asked about the apparent good
working relationship between the U.S. and Turkey's elites,
Carkoglu says the good will is more expedient than genuine.


7. (SBU) Recently we witnessed an example of a
Turkey-specific perspective when two relatively recent
graduates of Ivy League professional schools, both scions of
well-established holding companies in Turkey, were openly
critical of U.S. motives in Iraq. They contended that no
matter the official U.S. line, our intentions clearly were to
create an independent Kurdistan, inevitably leading to
Turkey,s further geopolitical erosion. Alleged U.S. support
for the ruling AK Party also tracked with a desire to weaken
Turkish institutions.


8. (C) Choosing an electoral example to illustrate how the
besieged mentality impacts society, Carkoglu said 1.5 million
Turks in Europe cannot vote in Turkey's elections because
thay are deemed "captives of Turkey's enemies." He lamented
Turkey's comparatively basic electoral democratic practices
pointing out that 300,000 Bulgarian Turks resident in Turkey
voted in Bulgaria's last election.


9. (C) Comment. The murder of Hrant Dink and the
victimization of innocents in other possibly nationalist - or
"enemies"-based killings underline the seriousness of the
isolationist bent in Turkish society. Liberally-minded
people with sufficient exposure to the world beyond Turkey,
like Professor Carkoglu, agree with Armenian Patriarch Mesrob
II, who urged education reform during Hrant Dink's
nationally-televised funeral in January. An informed,
confident public exercising its democratic prerogative may
give pause to some of those who think they know best. End
comment.
JONES