ONE INSIDER'S AKP: MISTAKES, POSSIBILITIES,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000468

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: ONE INSIDER'S AKP: MISTAKES, POSSIBILITIES,
LOOKING AHEAD

REF: ISTANBUL 427

Classified By: Consul General Deborah K. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary. Metin Kulunk, an Istanbul-based Justice and
Development Party (AKP) founding member and rival to Mehmet
Muezzinoglu for AK Party's Istanbul Chairmanship, met with us
May 23 to review his recent trip to the U.S. and share views
of the AKP heading into parliamentary elections. He was
concerned the party may have missed a leadership opportunity
for Turkey, cited former President and Prime Minister Ozal as
a role model for governing, said economic growth was Turkey's
leading requirement and argued a focus on the west was the
right approach for Turkey's foreign policy. End summary.


2. (C) Having lost a bid in 2003 for AKP Istanbul party
chairman, Metin Kulunk founded a group among like-minded,
conservative Istanbul AKP members to sponsor speakers focused
on Turkey and its future. This helps Kulunk maintain a
profile in the party. The group also affords him
opportunities for engagement with ideas beyond the scope of
more insular party activists. Though not an English speaker,
he indicates a growing interest in understanding and learning
from U.S. political and civil society. It was a revelation
to him to learn that there are advocacy offices within the
USG defending human rights, even against other USG
bureaucracies.

LOST CONFIDENCE
--------------


3. (C) Kulunk described Turkey as being at an historic
juncture. His party - he mentioned Parliamentary Speaker
Arinc by name - missed (and perhaps mishandled) the
opportunity to elect a president. AKP was trying for another
turn but much more effort and time were needed, he felt, to
win this prize a second time around. Recalling the debacle
of 1961 when sitting PM Menderes was hung and President Bayar
jailed, Kulunk said PM Erdogan had correctly called for early
elections that diffused political tensions at a critical
point. He said that from his perspective, those opposing the
direct election of the president in Turkey were not "aware"
of the shared societal values of the Turkish people.


4. (C) Erdogan, however, seemed to have a penchant for
increasing pressure, not releasing it. Kulunk praised former
PM and President Ozal who, he said, "raised Turkey's stature"
without becoming involved in "questionable" issues, meaning
ones that would draw and focus the ire of the powerful state
secularists and military - whom he claimed were much stronger
in Ozal's day. Kulunk claimed Ozal was more statesman than
politician and saw that Turkey had to integrate with the
world at a time when passports were next to impossible to
secure and imports were virtually non-existent. AKP should
strive, as Ozal had, to establish confidence within the
political system while developing a fuller democracy - at the
expense of the military. Kulunk's concern: confidence among
the players in the system has now been lost.

AND DAVUTOGLU HAS IT WRONG, TOO
--------------


5. (C) Kulunk said AKP founders had left the Refah (Welfare)
Party because it grew too extreme, departing from the wishes
of Turkish society. AKP should stay focused on economic
growth, not get sidetracked with issues like imam hatip
schools, cartoons, etc. Kulunk criticized Ahmet Davutoglu,
chief architect of the Prime Minister's foreign policy,
saying, "we have to pull out of the Middle East problems as
soon as possible." Perhaps reflecting insights from his
foreign travel, he argued Turkey had little to offer in the
Middle East and needed to correct "wrong signals"
given regarding its own direction. Turkey needed to stay
focused on the west. Kulunk thought it best to distance
itself from problems of the region as soon as possible. He
said Turkey would remain an important player but needed to
see its role in the "right terms." Turkey should have been
more outspoken with the U.S. on Iraq, for instance.


6. (C) But Turkey's focus should be its own problems,
including human rights for headscarved women and Kurds. Even
the rights of "extreme atheists" needed protection. Whoever
understood this would "run the country." It would take
courage but AKP best understood this necessity and was best
placed to push for these rights. One desirable election
outcome would be representation of the Democratic Society
Party (DTP) - center-left Kurdish party - in the next
parliament so that discussions of import to Turkey's Kurdish
citizens take place within the framework of Turkish democracy

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rather than on the sidelines.

NOW WHAT?
--------------


7. (C) Kulunk suggested the July 22 election would be very
different from the one in November 2002, despite the fact
that new and existing opposition party platforms offer little
more than anti-AK Party sloganeering. Anticipating retired
General and former Turkish NSC Secretary General Tuncer
Kilinc's May 29 speech in London, Kulunk said the opposition
served up anti-U.S. rhetoric and suggested alliances with
Russia, China, and other Middle Eastern countries. He
predicted the future they envision wouldn't make people
happy. What were they thinking when 70% of the world's
wealth is created in the U.S. and EU countries? No, the
Turkish public is demanding more wealth, suggesting "a
millionaire in every neighborhood" might be a good election
pitch for AKP this time around. And Turkey needed to achieve
peaceful co-existence for all points of view in the political
spectrum.


8. (C) Unfortunately, while AKP's popularity in Istanbul
stood at 45% on April 28 according to Kulunk's estimation, it
has been fading due to the PM's "stubborn approach." Still
holding out hope for AKP to form a single-party government,
Kulunk suggested that as many as four parties could cross the
10% bar in July. The most important surprise issue, he
thought, would be Northern Iraq (read PKK activity in Turkey)
between now and then.


9. (C) Comment. Kulunk is right to cite former President
Ozal as someone to emulate. New Democrat Party leader Agar
recently cited President Bayar (reftel). Bayar's reforms led
to arrest and imprisonment; Ozal's led to the adoption of a
more straight-forward western market economy, despite real
discomfort on the part of traditional Kemalists. Twenty
years later, the transformation is everywhere to be seen,
from Istanbul to the village. AKP's top leadership may make
- sometimes serious - mistakes, but they know that money
makes the world go round. End comment.
JONES