Ministerial Meeting on Turkmen- Afghan-Pakistan- India

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 005086

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O.12958: DECL: 10/02/2017
TAGS: ENRG ETTC PREL EPET ELTN PK IN IR
SUBJECT: Ministerial Meeting on Turkmen- Afghan-Pakistan- India
pipeline postponed


Classified by Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: A Ministerial meeting to further discussions on the
Turkmen- Afghan- Pakistan- India(TAPI) pipeline has been postponed.
Pakistan media implies that Turkmenistan's gas deals with Russia are
the reason for the delay and not Pakistan's state of emergency.
Pakistan continues to seek US involvement in curbing Russian
interference in regional energy discussions. End Summary.


2. (C) A Ministerial level meeting to discuss the proposed
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline which was
scheduled to take place in Islamabad on November 27 and 28 has been
postponed. Pakistani officials are now working with the Asian
Development Bank to reschedule the Ministerial meeting in December.
Ministry of Petroleum officials inform Post that India did not plan
to participate in this November Ministerial meeting but indicated
that India is "taking more interest in this project than the other
one." (Comment: The "other one" refers to the Iran-Pakistan-India
pipeline.)


3. (C) Pakistani officials are not citing the current state of
emergency as the reason for cancellation of the ministerial but
rather are noting that Turkmenistan scheduled further talks with
Russia's gas giant Gasprom for the same dates. Local media report
that Gasprom has signed a new agreement with Turkmenistan for
increased Europe-bound gas supplies, which would increase gas
deliveries to about 50 billion cubic meters (BCM),and notes that
Gasprom will pay 50 percent higher prices to Turkmenistan next year.
Local media also report that such a revised agreement means that
Turkmenistan would have little surplus gas available for export to
the South Asian region.


4. (C) Comment: Pakistan is facing a massive energy shortfall and is
looking at all available options to purchase additional energy and
diversify supplies. At the September Strategic Dialogue discussions
in Islamabad, and at subsequent Embassy meetings, GOP officials
requested USG assistance to counteract "the Russian influence." GOP
officials express frustration that the TAPI negotiations cannot move
forward more quickly and that Russia interferes in Central Asia
energy discussions. The TAPI pipeline's proposed 2012 completion
date is unrealistic. Additional challenges to this project also
include mitigation of the security risks in Afghanistan and
Balochistan, improvement in India-Pakistan relations, and phasing out
Pakistani fuel subsidies to ensure that this project is not a total
drain on the Pakistani treasury. End Comment.

PATTERSON