WEEKLY ROUNDUP: COURT CLEARS WAY FOR MUSHARRAF'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004990

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2017
TAGS: AEMR AMGT CASC KFLO PGOV PINR PK PREL
SUBJECT: WEEKLY ROUNDUP: COURT CLEARS WAY FOR MUSHARRAF'S
NEXT TERM

REF: ISLAMABAD 4965

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: The Supreme Court dismissed the final case
challenging Musharraf's candidate eligibility, clearing the
way for him to re-take the presidential oath of office as a
civilian, possibly as early as this weekend. Musharraf
issued new constitutional amendments to provide himself legal
indemnity for suspending the constitution and actions taken
during the state of emergency; this could lead him to lift
the state of emergency, but when is unclear. The Court also
validated the state of emergency and provisional
constitutional order by ruling on two government-sponsored
petitions. Despite talk of an elections boycott, the
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the block of religious
parties are filing candidate nomination papers. The
Commonwealth suspended Pakistan's membership, but this has no
automatic effect on donor aid. The government released some
prominent opposition political figures, but it continues to
detain leading judges and lawyers. The government of Dubai
authorized ARY to resume media broadcasts; Geo remains off
the air. Sporadic protests by opposition political parties,
journalists and lawyers continue across the country. End
summary.


2. (C) The Supreme Court dismissed November 22 the final case
challenging Musharraf's eligibility to serve another term as
President. The court is set to deliver a short order, which
clears the way for the Election Commission to validate the
October 6 election results. Musharraf will probably step
down from his post in the Army--perhaps as early as this
weekend--before taking an oath of office as a civilian.


3. (C) On November 21, Musharraf issued seven constitutional
amendments that provide him with indemnity for the November 3
provisional constitutional order and proclamation of
emergency. The next National Assembly must ratify these
amendments by a two-thirds majority; otherwise, Musharraf
could later face treason charges for abrogating the
constitution. Under these new amendments, the January 8
election and the judicial oath taken by new justices will be
considered constitutional (septel). On November 23, the
Court ruled on two petitions, sponsored behind-the-scenes by
the government, and declared that the state of emergency and
the provisional constitutional order were legal.


5. (C) Recently deported former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
is preparing to return to Pakistan, according to press
reports. Musharraf met with Saudi King Abdullah earlier in
the week, and Sharif reportedly is traveling from Riyadh to
Jeddah November 23 to meet with the king. It is unclear if
Nawaz will be allowed to return by November 26, the last day
possible to file candidate nominations papers.


6. (U) In a key development, People's Party of Pakistan (PPP)
leader Benazir Bhutto said her party will submit nomination
papers. Although the PPP could still decide to boycott the
elections, the PPP's decision to move forward will discourage
other parties from boycotting.


7. (C) The religious parties' coalition, which includes the
Jamaat-i Islami (JI) and Jamiat-i Ulema-i-Islam-Falzur
(JUI-F) parties, met November 22 and decided not to boycott
the election unless the PPP or Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N) decides to do so. JI leader Qazi Hussain lobbied to
have the MMA boycott the elections, but JUI-F leader Fazlur
Rehman convinced the coalition to participate, according to
mission contacts.


8. (C) The Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG)
suspended November 22 Pakistan's membership, but the decision
will not automatically impact donor aid. The CMAG had given
Musharraf November 12 a ten-day ultimatum to step down from
his post in the Army and lift the state of emergency, or risk
Pakistan being suspended from the Commonwealth. The
government issued a press release expressing "deep
disappointment" over the decision and stated that it
"reflects ignorance to the ground realities."


9. (C) The government released prominent opposition figures
this week, including Imran Khan (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf),

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Liaquat Baloch (JI),Javed Hashimi (PML-N),and Asfundyar
Wali (Awami National Party),but leading lawyers and judges
remain under detention (septel).


10. (U) The government of Dubai November 22 authorized ARY to
resume media broadcasts. The government of Dubai November 16
started blocking ARY and Geo broadcasts (reftel). The
government said a decision is pending on whether GEO will be
allowed to resume its broadcasts.


11. (C) Ambassador met separately November 19 with Benazir
Bhutto and Geo TV, and Karachi CG met November 21 with ARY
and the Karachi Press Club. Many political prisoners are
being released throughout Sindh and Karachi. Court boycotts
continue in Karachi, and police baton charged a November 20
Karachi Press Club rally protesting curbs on the media.


12. (U) A/PAO 23 November called on caretaker Minister of
Information Nisar Memon. A/PAO raised USG concerns over
continuing restrictions on the media, and Memon said he was
confident these restrictions would be lifted soon. A/PAO also
noted Embassy concerns over Pakistan TV programs that have
been strongly critical of the USG, Ambassador, and Consuls
General because of their public statements in favor of
restoring press freedom.

PATTERSON