Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ISLAMABAD4864
2007-11-15 12:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:
"LIKE MINDED" GROUP: REACTIONS TO ELECTIONS UNDER
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004864
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL PINR AEMR KFLO CASC
SUBJECT: "LIKE MINDED" GROUP: REACTIONS TO ELECTIONS UNDER
A STATE OF EMERGENCY
REF: ISLAMABAD 4824
Classified By: DCM Peter W. Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004864
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL PINR AEMR KFLO CASC
SUBJECT: "LIKE MINDED" GROUP: REACTIONS TO ELECTIONS UNDER
A STATE OF EMERGENCY
REF: ISLAMABAD 4824
Classified By: DCM Peter W. Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C/NF) Summary: International donors for Pakistan's
pro-democracy programs are growing increasingly skeptical
that the government can reverse actions related to the state
of emergency in time to stave off aid cuts or decisions to
cancel election observation missions. Post continues to
caution that such action is premature. End summary.
2. (C/NF) PolOff attended November 13 the weekly meeting of
the "like minded" group on democracy/election issues, which
includes diplomatic representatives from the EU and/or
Commonwealth countries, plus the U.S. and (sometimes) Japan.
The European Commission
3. (C/NF) The European Commission's DCM Balthasar Benz
announced that the European Commissioner would decide in
Brussels later November 13 whether to send an EC observer
mission for Pakistan's parliamentary elections. President
Musharraf announced November 11 that these elections should
occur before January 9, 2008. The Commissioner's position,
reported Benz, would likely be: "No observers if elections
are under a state of emergency." EC/Islamabad advised the
Commissioner to make the decision public. Benz confirmed
that if, between now and elections, the emergency is lifted,
"we are ready to go."
UK/Commonwealth
4. (C/NF) The UK High Commission's PolCouns Thomas Drew
briefed the recently released Commonwealth Ministerial Action
Group (CMAG) statement that gave Pakistan ten days to reverse
anti-democratic actions. He said it was a middle ground
between doing nothing and suspending Pakistan's membership in
the organization. For now, the suspension threat is just a
"useful lever," Drew added. The organization has this next
week to determine whether to use it or not, before heads of
government meet in Kigali. Separately, Drew told Polcouns
that Prime Minister Aziz had lobbied hard with Commonwealth
SecGen McKinnon to convince him not to go forward with a
suspension. According to Drew, at the CMAG meeting, the
Canadians and Australians had pushed the hardest for a
suspension, with the UK acting as a moderating force.
"A Text With No Status"
5. (C/NF) International NGO representatives and officials
from some of the donor countries reportedly attended a UN
Development Programme (UNDP)-called, elections technical
working group meeting on November 12. Confounded by the
difficulties of assisting with and observing elections under
a state of emergency, this technical-level group drafted "a
text with no status," intended for donors to consider.
6. (C/NF) The text proposes that donors would separately
argue the same points to the GOP: (1) re-instate media
freedoms, (2) ensure judicial independence, (3) release
lawyers, human rights activists and political party workers,
and (4) treat political parties/leaders equally, allowing
them to conduct campaign programs. The text does not set any
deadline for the GOP to complete these four points. However,
Pakistan's Election Commission (ECP) estimates that it needs
at least 45 days, logistically, to put on these elections.
Counting back from Musharraf's announced deadline for
elections of January 9, 2008, these four points would need to
be fulfilled by November 20, so argued Netherlands' PolOff
Mirjam Krijnen.
7. (C/NF) If donors were to cut-off the aid provided for
ISLAMABAD 00004864 002 OF 002
elections through the UNDP, it would mainly affect training
of poll workers. Much of the hardware (e.g., ballot boxes),
reported Krijnen, has already been delivered. She also
mentioned that, because of government arrests and
intimidation, UNDP programs with the political parties and
journalists have ground to a halt.
Japan
8. (C/NF) Lastly, Japan's PolOff Katsunori Ashida quoted
recent statements by his Foreign Minister: While there is no
final decision as yet, "Japan may have to reel in" its aid.
Reportedly, the FM further noted that a planned increase in
Japan's aid program to Pakistan is now on hold. (Note: DCM
separately briefed the Japanese on the integrated U.S.
program for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA),
and the Japanese took note of the U.S. willingness to take
risks the GOJ was not.)
9. (C/NF) Comment: Many of the donor countries which make up
this informal "like minded" group are groping for a response
to Musharraf's November 3 actions. Some of them, prompted by
international NGOs and with relatively little aid at stake,
are prematurely pushing for an immediate cut-off. However,
this "useful lever" can only be pulled once. End comment.
PATTERSON
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL PINR AEMR KFLO CASC
SUBJECT: "LIKE MINDED" GROUP: REACTIONS TO ELECTIONS UNDER
A STATE OF EMERGENCY
REF: ISLAMABAD 4824
Classified By: DCM Peter W. Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C/NF) Summary: International donors for Pakistan's
pro-democracy programs are growing increasingly skeptical
that the government can reverse actions related to the state
of emergency in time to stave off aid cuts or decisions to
cancel election observation missions. Post continues to
caution that such action is premature. End summary.
2. (C/NF) PolOff attended November 13 the weekly meeting of
the "like minded" group on democracy/election issues, which
includes diplomatic representatives from the EU and/or
Commonwealth countries, plus the U.S. and (sometimes) Japan.
The European Commission
3. (C/NF) The European Commission's DCM Balthasar Benz
announced that the European Commissioner would decide in
Brussels later November 13 whether to send an EC observer
mission for Pakistan's parliamentary elections. President
Musharraf announced November 11 that these elections should
occur before January 9, 2008. The Commissioner's position,
reported Benz, would likely be: "No observers if elections
are under a state of emergency." EC/Islamabad advised the
Commissioner to make the decision public. Benz confirmed
that if, between now and elections, the emergency is lifted,
"we are ready to go."
UK/Commonwealth
4. (C/NF) The UK High Commission's PolCouns Thomas Drew
briefed the recently released Commonwealth Ministerial Action
Group (CMAG) statement that gave Pakistan ten days to reverse
anti-democratic actions. He said it was a middle ground
between doing nothing and suspending Pakistan's membership in
the organization. For now, the suspension threat is just a
"useful lever," Drew added. The organization has this next
week to determine whether to use it or not, before heads of
government meet in Kigali. Separately, Drew told Polcouns
that Prime Minister Aziz had lobbied hard with Commonwealth
SecGen McKinnon to convince him not to go forward with a
suspension. According to Drew, at the CMAG meeting, the
Canadians and Australians had pushed the hardest for a
suspension, with the UK acting as a moderating force.
"A Text With No Status"
5. (C/NF) International NGO representatives and officials
from some of the donor countries reportedly attended a UN
Development Programme (UNDP)-called, elections technical
working group meeting on November 12. Confounded by the
difficulties of assisting with and observing elections under
a state of emergency, this technical-level group drafted "a
text with no status," intended for donors to consider.
6. (C/NF) The text proposes that donors would separately
argue the same points to the GOP: (1) re-instate media
freedoms, (2) ensure judicial independence, (3) release
lawyers, human rights activists and political party workers,
and (4) treat political parties/leaders equally, allowing
them to conduct campaign programs. The text does not set any
deadline for the GOP to complete these four points. However,
Pakistan's Election Commission (ECP) estimates that it needs
at least 45 days, logistically, to put on these elections.
Counting back from Musharraf's announced deadline for
elections of January 9, 2008, these four points would need to
be fulfilled by November 20, so argued Netherlands' PolOff
Mirjam Krijnen.
7. (C/NF) If donors were to cut-off the aid provided for
ISLAMABAD 00004864 002 OF 002
elections through the UNDP, it would mainly affect training
of poll workers. Much of the hardware (e.g., ballot boxes),
reported Krijnen, has already been delivered. She also
mentioned that, because of government arrests and
intimidation, UNDP programs with the political parties and
journalists have ground to a halt.
Japan
8. (C/NF) Lastly, Japan's PolOff Katsunori Ashida quoted
recent statements by his Foreign Minister: While there is no
final decision as yet, "Japan may have to reel in" its aid.
Reportedly, the FM further noted that a planned increase in
Japan's aid program to Pakistan is now on hold. (Note: DCM
separately briefed the Japanese on the integrated U.S.
program for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA),
and the Japanese took note of the U.S. willingness to take
risks the GOJ was not.)
9. (C/NF) Comment: Many of the donor countries which make up
this informal "like minded" group are groping for a response
to Musharraf's November 3 actions. Some of them, prompted by
international NGOs and with relatively little aid at stake,
are prematurely pushing for an immediate cut-off. However,
this "useful lever" can only be pulled once. End comment.
PATTERSON