Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ISLAMABAD3200
2007-07-24 12:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:
PAKISTAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE, PART 2: FRACTURED OPPOSITION PREPARES FOR ELECTIONS
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003200
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE, PART 2: FRACTURED OPPOSITION PREPARES FOR ELECTIONS
REF: ISLAMABAD 3199
Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003200
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE, PART 2: FRACTURED OPPOSITION PREPARES FOR ELECTIONS
REF: ISLAMABAD 3199
Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Summary: Unable to unite at the All Parties Conference (APC) for en masse resignations or mass street protests, Pakistan's severely fractured opposition is unlikely to mount a credible challenge to President Musharraf's bid to seek re-election under the current assemblies. Unsurprisingly the July 7-8 conference did not yield any coherent action plan to unite the opposition parties and its joint declaration was another longwinded statement of complaints against the Musharraf government. The conference did cement a long-simmering split between Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the rest of the opposition. End Summary.
2. (U) This cable is the second in a series exploring Pakistan’s political party landscape in the run-up to elections.
ALL PARTIES CONFERENCE
--------------
3. (U) On July 7-8, representatives from all opposition parties met in London to discuss a coordinated strategy in the months leading to the general and presidential elections.
The meeting was largely overshadowed by the government's military operation against the Red Mosque in Islamabad, and received little press coverage. The conference was, however, instrumental in highlighting the growing fissures within the opposition - most importantly those between former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's PPP and the rest of the opposition. The split was cemented by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's announcement of a new political alliance of all opposition parties except the PPP.
4. (C) Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto sent low-level PPP representatives to the APC, despite her presence in London, because of her continuing differences with the religious party alliance Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). (Note. The PPP is a staunchly secular, liberal party and refuses to coordinate or ally with any religious parties. End Note.) Bhutto's lack of full participation signaled the irrelevancy of the APC and confirmed the suspicions of other opposition parties about PPP's back-channel talks with President Musharraf.
5. (C) At the APC, most parties called for the opposition to resign en masse if Musharraf held presidential elections under the current assemblies. However, resistance from the PPP and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) stopped the opposition from adopting this decision. (Note. The JUI-F is the largest member of the MMA. The JUI-F and the PPP are the two largest vote blocs in the opposition. End Note.)
6. (U) After two days of talks the opposition cobbled together a declaration that is a series of complaints against the government, including: demands for a free and fair election, demands for the immediate resignation of President Musharraf, redress for the March 12 violence in Karachi, cessation of army operations in Baluchistan, reinstatement of the Chief Justice, and a myriad of other complaints. The loosely-worded document does not outline any concrete steps for the opposition and its language leaves plenty of room for each party to interpret its own separate course of action.
ALL PARTIES DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE
--------------
7. (C) After the APC, Nawaz Sharif formed a new coalition called the All Parties Democratic Alliance (APDA) that includes all opposition parties with the exception of the PPP. The APDA has not unveiled any pre-elections plans but has announced that its singular aim will be to demand the resignation of President Musharraf. When asked how this was to be accomplished, MMA leader Liaqat Baloch said that the APDA would agitate in the streets and seek recourse in the courts.
8. (SBU) APDA held its first meeting in Islamabad on July 23. They have also planned rallies in Quetta on August 9 and Rawalpindi on August 14. The new alliance has clearly demarcated PPP's stance outside the allied opposition. The Quetta rally will also be a test of MMA's (specifically the JUI-F's) will to stay with the opposition, since the first protest will be in Baluchistan, where the provincial government is an MMA and ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) coalition government. Septel cables will discuss both PML-N's and MMA's strategies with the new alliance.
POLITICAL TURNING POINTS
--------------
9. (C) On July 18, President Musharraf announced publicly that he will seek re-election under the current electoral college (made up of the sitting national and provincial assemblies). This announcement was followed by the landmark Supreme Court decision on July 20 to reinstate Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. The court's decision is being hailed as a significant victory for the opposition cause, however, any future hopes of the Supreme Court opposing Musharraf's re-election plans are based on a moral rather than legal arguments. In the wake of the decision, Benazir Bhutto publicly announced a deal with President Musharraf was “unlikely†and party officials said they will challenge Musharraf's decision in court. President Musharraf's announcement and the legal victory have not been an adequate impetus for the opposition parties to unite in calling for mass resignations from the assemblies. Bhutto's announcement is seen as another flip-flop in a long series of political maneuvers. Distrust between opposition parties continues to grow as elections approach and rumors of political deals continue.
MISSED OPPORTUNITIES TO UNITE, POWER POLITICS
-------------- -
10. (C) Comment: The APC was not taken seriously from the beginning, dooming it to produce a watered-down and emotional declaration. Parties with the most to lose electorally (PPP and JUI-F) made sure that the question of whether to resign from the National Assembly was left undecided. This strategic move by the PPP and the JUI-F has made clear that both parties command vote-banks which none of the other opposition parties enjoy and they are not willing to gamble any future power-sharing arrangements by standing too close to the opposition. The rest of the opposition, with the PML-N leading them, is now trying to strategize about its own electoral prospects. However, with the realization that they do not hold the votes to effectively counter any PPP or JUI-F alliance with the ruling PML, the new opposition APDA will likely be another vehicle for vociferous protests that do not yield real political or electoral changes. End Comment.
PATTERSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE, PART 2: FRACTURED OPPOSITION PREPARES FOR ELECTIONS
REF: ISLAMABAD 3199
Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Summary: Unable to unite at the All Parties Conference (APC) for en masse resignations or mass street protests, Pakistan's severely fractured opposition is unlikely to mount a credible challenge to President Musharraf's bid to seek re-election under the current assemblies. Unsurprisingly the July 7-8 conference did not yield any coherent action plan to unite the opposition parties and its joint declaration was another longwinded statement of complaints against the Musharraf government. The conference did cement a long-simmering split between Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the rest of the opposition. End Summary.
2. (U) This cable is the second in a series exploring Pakistan’s political party landscape in the run-up to elections.
ALL PARTIES CONFERENCE
--------------
3. (U) On July 7-8, representatives from all opposition parties met in London to discuss a coordinated strategy in the months leading to the general and presidential elections.
The meeting was largely overshadowed by the government's military operation against the Red Mosque in Islamabad, and received little press coverage. The conference was, however, instrumental in highlighting the growing fissures within the opposition - most importantly those between former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's PPP and the rest of the opposition. The split was cemented by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's announcement of a new political alliance of all opposition parties except the PPP.
4. (C) Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto sent low-level PPP representatives to the APC, despite her presence in London, because of her continuing differences with the religious party alliance Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). (Note. The PPP is a staunchly secular, liberal party and refuses to coordinate or ally with any religious parties. End Note.) Bhutto's lack of full participation signaled the irrelevancy of the APC and confirmed the suspicions of other opposition parties about PPP's back-channel talks with President Musharraf.
5. (C) At the APC, most parties called for the opposition to resign en masse if Musharraf held presidential elections under the current assemblies. However, resistance from the PPP and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) stopped the opposition from adopting this decision. (Note. The JUI-F is the largest member of the MMA. The JUI-F and the PPP are the two largest vote blocs in the opposition. End Note.)
6. (U) After two days of talks the opposition cobbled together a declaration that is a series of complaints against the government, including: demands for a free and fair election, demands for the immediate resignation of President Musharraf, redress for the March 12 violence in Karachi, cessation of army operations in Baluchistan, reinstatement of the Chief Justice, and a myriad of other complaints. The loosely-worded document does not outline any concrete steps for the opposition and its language leaves plenty of room for each party to interpret its own separate course of action.
ALL PARTIES DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE
--------------
7. (C) After the APC, Nawaz Sharif formed a new coalition called the All Parties Democratic Alliance (APDA) that includes all opposition parties with the exception of the PPP. The APDA has not unveiled any pre-elections plans but has announced that its singular aim will be to demand the resignation of President Musharraf. When asked how this was to be accomplished, MMA leader Liaqat Baloch said that the APDA would agitate in the streets and seek recourse in the courts.
8. (SBU) APDA held its first meeting in Islamabad on July 23. They have also planned rallies in Quetta on August 9 and Rawalpindi on August 14. The new alliance has clearly demarcated PPP's stance outside the allied opposition. The Quetta rally will also be a test of MMA's (specifically the JUI-F's) will to stay with the opposition, since the first protest will be in Baluchistan, where the provincial government is an MMA and ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) coalition government. Septel cables will discuss both PML-N's and MMA's strategies with the new alliance.
POLITICAL TURNING POINTS
--------------
9. (C) On July 18, President Musharraf announced publicly that he will seek re-election under the current electoral college (made up of the sitting national and provincial assemblies). This announcement was followed by the landmark Supreme Court decision on July 20 to reinstate Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. The court's decision is being hailed as a significant victory for the opposition cause, however, any future hopes of the Supreme Court opposing Musharraf's re-election plans are based on a moral rather than legal arguments. In the wake of the decision, Benazir Bhutto publicly announced a deal with President Musharraf was “unlikely†and party officials said they will challenge Musharraf's decision in court. President Musharraf's announcement and the legal victory have not been an adequate impetus for the opposition parties to unite in calling for mass resignations from the assemblies. Bhutto's announcement is seen as another flip-flop in a long series of political maneuvers. Distrust between opposition parties continues to grow as elections approach and rumors of political deals continue.
MISSED OPPORTUNITIES TO UNITE, POWER POLITICS
-------------- -
10. (C) Comment: The APC was not taken seriously from the beginning, dooming it to produce a watered-down and emotional declaration. Parties with the most to lose electorally (PPP and JUI-F) made sure that the question of whether to resign from the National Assembly was left undecided. This strategic move by the PPP and the JUI-F has made clear that both parties command vote-banks which none of the other opposition parties enjoy and they are not willing to gamble any future power-sharing arrangements by standing too close to the opposition. The rest of the opposition, with the PML-N leading them, is now trying to strategize about its own electoral prospects. However, with the realization that they do not hold the votes to effectively counter any PPP or JUI-F alliance with the ruling PML, the new opposition APDA will likely be another vehicle for vociferous protests that do not yield real political or electoral changes. End Comment.
PATTERSON