MUSHARRAF TELLS EDITORS: IT IS MODERATES VS.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003128

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2017
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV PK
SUBJECT: MUSHARRAF TELLS EDITORS: IT IS MODERATES VS.
EXTREMISTS; HE WILL SEEK RE-ELECTION IN UNIFORM


Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: In a surprisingly wide ranging and confident
interview with senior Pakistani editors July 18, President
Musharraf flatly stated that Pakistan was in a direct
confrontation with extremist forces and the biggest challenge
was to stop the spread of Talibanization. To win that fight
required a "unified" civilian-military command; therefore, he
will run for re-election as president, in uniform, before the
current assemblies. He reviewed a military response but also
reached out for media/civil society support. Addressing the
concerns of the political opposition, he pledged not to
impose a state of emergency and to honor the constitution and
hold "free and fair" elections when the current assemblies'
term expires. Opposition parties, which had vowed efforts to
block Musharraf's re-election from the current assemblies,
now face the challenge of how to respond. End Summary.


2. (U) President Musharraf talked to a group of senior
newspaper editors on July 18. While we have no transcript of
the conversation, the media reported that Musharraf said:

-- We are in direct confrontation with extremist forces. It
is moderates vs. extremists. He appealed to moderates to
support the government in this fight.

-- Pakistan's biggest challenge is to stop the spread of
Talibanization.

-- Two full Pakistan Army divisions had been dispatched to
the NWFP and FATA, and steps were underway to increase and
strengthen local paramilitary forces.

-- He will not use the current violence as a pretext to
impose a state of emergency.

-- Only a "unified command" of civilian and military
leadership can defeat the extremists. A civilian government
alone cannot handle this military situation.

-- He will stand for re-election as president, without taking
off his uniform (as Chief of Army Staff),before the current
assemblies' terms expire.

-- Parliamentary elections will be free and fair, and they
will be held on time - by early next year at the latest.

-- He rejected the conclusions of the latest U.S. National
Intelligence Estimate assessing that Pakistan had failed to
prevent the regrouping of al Qaeda along the Pak-Afghan
border.

Opposition Reaction
--------------


3. (C) Musharraf will face a firestorm of criticism from
opposition parties for his decision to seek re-election, in
uniform, before the current assemblies. Many of his
opponents had hoped Musharraf would wait until after national
and provincial elections (scheduled to occur by early next
year) because they believe that the ruling Pakistan Muslim
League party will lose seats in the national and provincial
assemblies. At an All Parties Opposition conference in
London July 7-8 (septel),there were calls for a mass
resignation from parliament if Musharraf attempted reelection
from the current assemblies. However, the two opposition
parties with the largest electoral base, the Pakistan
People's Party and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, did not endorse the
call for mass resignation. The opposition thus remains
fragmented in how to move forward.

Musharraf/MFA Reject U.S. NIE
--------------


4. (U) In rejecting the latest U.S. National Intelligence
Estimate, Musharraf told the editors that the country was in
open battle with Islamic militants, that al Qaeda was on the
run in tribal areas and that the flow of Taliban from
Pakistan into Afghanistan has been reduced. He added that two
divisions of Army troops had deployed to troubled border
areas (between Dera Ismail Khan and Malakand) and that these
troops will be supplemented in December by a newly-trained

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and better-equipped paramilitary force that would handle the
militancy.


5. (U) Foreign Office Spokesperson Tasneem Aslam on July 18
echoed Musharraf's rejection, stating "It does not help
simply to make assertions about the presence or regeneration
of al Qaeda... What is needed is concrete and actionable
information and intelligence sharing." Aslam also re-asserted
Pakistan's territorial sovereignty: any counter-terror action
on Pakistani soil would be conducted by Pakistani security
forces.


6. (C) Comment: Editors reported that Musharraf appeared
more relaxed and confident than he has been in months. The
Red Mosque operation appears to have galvanized his
determination to launch a campaign against extremists and
provided what he sees as a clear rationale to seek
re-election in uniform. In reaching out to moderates in media
and society, however, Musharraf recognized that the fight
against extremists cannot be won with military forces alone.
Although opposition political parties will severely criticize
Musharraf's decision to seek re-election, in uniform, before
the current assembly, the fragmented opposition faces a
challenge in how to respond.
PATTERSON