Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ISLAMABAD2944
2007-07-06 07:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:  

PAKISTAN'S ELECTIONS: SOLVING THE VOTER ROLL

Tags:  PGOV PREL PK 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #2944/01 1870719
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 060719Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0257
INFO RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 1397
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 2163
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 7283
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 5952
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1295
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 6602
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 2782
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 1206
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 2618
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002944 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN'S ELECTIONS: SOLVING THE VOTER ROLL
CONTROVERSY

REF: ISLAMABAD 1842

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002944

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN'S ELECTIONS: SOLVING THE VOTER ROLL
CONTROVERSY

REF: ISLAMABAD 1842

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Post is quietly engaged with senior
Pakistani officials to press for a resolution to credible
opposition complaints that perhaps 20 million voters have
dropped off the latest Election Commission of Pakistan's
voter list. A potential data merger of the Election
Commission and National Identity Card lists could add 12-22
million voters to the list; a government decision to
subsidize issuance of identity cards could help enfranchise
poorer women. Despite concerns about the capability of the
Commission, we believe that USAID/IFES efforts have already
made a positive contribution to what will be an improved, but
still imperfect, election process in Pakistan this year. End
Summary.


2. (U) The 2002 general and 2005 local elections revealed
institutional and political problems in Pakistan's electoral
system, including fraudulent/duplicative voter lists,
interference by the intelligence services, violent
intimidation of election workers and voters, voter apathy,
and weak efforts at registration and substantive campaigning
by political parties. USAID/IFES, the International
Republican Institute, National Democratic Institute, UN
Development Program, European Union, Asia Foundation and
international donors are all working on various projects to
ensure the 2007 elections will be free, fair and transparent.
These include projects to revise voter rolls, conduct polls,
train election officials and party workers, raise public
awareness, and provide transparent ballot boxes. This is the
second of a series on Pakistan's 2007 elections, and it
addresses efforts to update the voter rolls.

Missing: 20 Million Voters?
--------------


3. (U) The voter list for the 2002 and 2005 elections, which
contained 70 million names, was compiled using 1998 census
data. In an attempt to reduce fraud and comply with a 1974
law that required citizens to present a national identity
card to vote, the Election Commission in 2006 announced that
citizens would be required to have a new Computerized
National Identity Card in order to register and vote. Under

a USAID contract, IFES is helping the Commission to update
and clean up the voter rolls. Before IFES was embedded in
the Commission, however, the Commission conducted what many
NGOs and opposition political parties have criticized as a
poorly executed house-to-house survey. Based on that survey,
the Commission issued a new draft voter list. Of an
estimated 82 million eligible voters in 2007, the
Commission's revised list includes 52 million, of whom only
36 million have the new identity cards.


4. (U) The new draft voter list was released for public
display countrywide in mid-June, and the Commission engaged
in a public relations campaign to woo voters to the 45,000
display centers countrywide to confirm that their names were
on the draft list and, if not, to register. The display
period was scheduled to end on July 3. NGO, press, and
Mission's observations of these display centers confirm that
few voters have visited the display centers, many of which
are not open or adequately staffed.


5. (C) Elimination of fraudulent or duplicate names explains
some, but certainly not all, of the discrepancy in numbers.
Not surprisingly, the news that perhaps 20 million voters had
dropped off of the list created an uproar among the
opposition parties. The latest protest came in the form of a
Supreme Court petition submitted by Pakistan People's Party
Chairman Benazir Bhutto last week. The petition complained
about the loss of large numbers of voters and argued that the
Commission cannot require voters to show their the new
identity cards in order to register to vote. The petition
also complained that the Commission had not supplied
political parties with electronic copies of the draft voter
rolls, which made it more difficult for them to determine
which voters fell off the list. (Note: While the People's

ISLAMABAD 00002944 002 OF 002


Party is complaining about the process, the press reports
that the smaller religious parties are actually out
registering voters.)


6. (U) Although the Commission has not responded specifically
to the Supreme Court petition, Commission Secretary Kanwar
Dilshad has publicly defended the national identity card
requirement as a fraud prevention measure and emphasized that
the 21-day display period is the time for voters to rectify
any mistakes made on the list.

NADRA National Identity Cards
--------------


7. (U) Beginning in 2002, the National Database and
Registration Authority (NADRA) began an ongoing process of
producing and distributing new biometric Computerized
National Identity Cards. NADRA is a for-profit agency that
receives no government funding. NADRA charges 75 rupees
($1.25) for each card, which makes them inaccessible for the
poorest Pakistanis. (Note: The old national identity cards
were issued free of charge.) In some tribal areas, women are
less likely to pay for identity cards or register to vote.
NADRA now has 58 million voter-eligible names on its list of
new identity card holders.

Commission/NADRA Data Merger?
--------------


8. (C) Senior government officials are now responding to what
Chief Election Commissioner Qazi Mohammed Farooq admitted to
A/S Boucher on June 13 that unless at least 10 million more
voters are added to the draft voter lists, the general
elections will not be credible. Last week, Prime Minister
Shaukat Aziz requested that the Commission provide him with a
status report on the draft voter rolls. The Deputy Chief of
Mission confirmed the Prime Minister's interest in addressing
the list problem in meetings with both Tariq Aziz, the
President's Chief of Staff, and NADRA Chairman Salee Ahmed
Moeen. In a subsequent meeting, Aziz promised the Deputy
Chief of Mission immediate access to the Commission to
discuss the issue.


9. (C) Moeen told the Charge that if the Commission requested
assistance, NADRA could merge its list with that of the
Commission. IFES technical experts confirm that this is
possible and could result in an increase of 12-22 million
names on the voter list. The Commission is unlikely to
request help without political pressure, so post is quietly
engaged in efforts to convince the PM/President's office to
press for efforts to increase the voter rolls, and to obtain
the buy-in of international donors for this effort.


10. (C) We are still awaiting estimated merger costs, which
would have to be negotiated, from NADRA. It is unclear if
the government would be willing to pay for the merger, but we
understand that Japan may consider assisting this effort.
Post also pressed government officials to increase voter
rolls by subsidizing the costs of issuing new identity cards.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Convincing the Commission to increase voter rolls
enough to meet both domestic and international standards of
credibility will be only the first step in helping Pakistan
conduct free, fair and transparent elections. Despite
concerns about the capability of the Commission to deliver,
we believe that USAID/IFES efforts have already made a
positive contribution to what will be improved, but still
imperfect, elections in Pakistan this year.
PATTERSON