Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ISLAMABAD274
2007-01-17 12:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:
BOUCHER DISCUSSES AFGHANISTAN, INDIA, TRADE WITH
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 000274
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017
TAGS: PREL EAID PREF PK AF IN CA
SUBJECT: BOUCHER DISCUSSES AFGHANISTAN, INDIA, TRADE WITH
FOREIGN MINISTER
REF: ISLAMABAD 29
ISLAMABAD 00000274 001.2 OF 004
Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
-------
Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 000274
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017
TAGS: PREL EAID PREF PK AF IN CA
SUBJECT: BOUCHER DISCUSSES AFGHANISTAN, INDIA, TRADE WITH
FOREIGN MINISTER
REF: ISLAMABAD 29
ISLAMABAD 00000274 001.2 OF 004
Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C) On January 12, Assistant Secretary of State for South
and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher met with Foreign
Minister Mian Khurshid Kasuri for a wide-ranging discussion,
which included Pak-Afghan and Pak-India relations,
Reconstruction Opportunity Zones, the development plan for
Pakistan's frontier region, border security, Afghan refugees,
intelligence cooperation, and possibilities for a
U.S.-Pakistan free trade agreement. End summary.
-------------- -
Boucher: Karzai Says Parliament Exchange Good;
Karzai's Confidence Up
-------------- -
2. (SBU) Boucher began the January 12 meeting with Pakistan
Foreign Minister Mian Khurshid Kasuri by saying that his
visit to Afghanistan went well. Boucher raised Pakistan's
interest in starting a Pak-Afghan parliamentary exchange with
Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who agreed that the exchange
is a good idea (reftel). Karzai agreed that the exchange is
important and promised to call Wolesi Jirga Speaker Younus
Qanooni to help get it started.
3. (C) Boucher said that Karzai is more confident this year
than last year, when he was faced with the growing Taliban
insurgency and had no police or military capability to deal
with it. This year, Boucher said, 3-4,000 police have been
trained and are deploying to southern Afghanistan. The
35,000-strong Afghan Army is more capable and better
equipped. In some provinces in east, central, and southern
Afghanistan, Boucher said, the combined efforts of the army
and police as well as good governance and development
programs have had a stabilizing effect. The full fruition of
these efforts will come next year, he predicted. Boucher said
that he believes NATO and Afghan troops will be able to
disrupt the Taliban's spring offensive. Police are being
deployed to northern Helmand province and Afghanistan's
interior, and Afghan police are backfilling areas after NATO
secures them.
--------------
Kasuri: What About Musa Qala?
--------------
4. (C) Kasuri was interested in Boucher's assessment of the
Musa Qala agreement. Boucher explained that British troops
departing from Musa Qala (Helmand Province) struck a deal
with local elders to control security, as there were no plans
for Afghan security forces to fill the gap. The area is
relatively peaceful, Boucher said, but we do not know if it
was because of the agreement. A weakness of the agreement,
Boucher said, is that it runs contrary to our overall goal in
Afghanistan to strengthen the central government. The deal is
similar to the North Waziristan agreement in Pakistan's
tribal areas, Boucher said, but Musa Qala does not have the
same strategic value for fighting the Taliban insurgency.
5. (C) Kasuri asked Boucher why media and think tank
assessments of Pak-Afghan border security are so downbeat
when U.S. officials privately have a much more optimistic
assessment. Boucher attributed this dissonance to the time
required for improved Afghan security, governance and
development efforts to show results to outside observers.
Boucher stressed that it is still important to focus on
ISLAMABAD 00000274 002.2 OF 004
improving efforts against the Taliban insurgency. We expect
that it will be a tough year with a lot of fighting, Boucher
said, and the flow of people from the Pakistan side of the
border is a major concern. Over the next 2-3 months it will
be important think about what we can do to make it difficult
for the Taliban to launch an offensive.
--------------
Kasuri: Karzai's Rhetoric
--------------
6. (C) Kasuri expressed frustration over Karzai's disparaging
remarks about Pakistan. During Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz's
January 4 trip to Afghanistan, Karzai and Aziz agreed to
avoid public bickering, but then Karzai used a joint press
event to level accusations at Pakistan. Boucher replied that
he thinks Karzai is playing to a domestic audience; during
his own visit, Boucher emphasized the importance of
Afghanistan focusing on its own challenges. Everyone,
however, is genuinely concerned about the capabilities of the
militants who are crossing the border from Pakistan into
Afghanistan, Boucher said.
-------------- --------------
Kasuri: Unfairly Maligned re: U.S.-India Nuke Deal Remarks
-------------- --------------
7. (C) Kasuri said that he wanted to set the record straight
after reading a recent cable from Pakistan Ambassador Mehmood
Ali Durrani describing a meeting with Under Secretary of
State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns. Durrani reported
that Burns had raised Kasuri's public rejection of the
U.S.-India nuclear agreement, Kasuri said, but Burns appears
to have misunderstood Kasuri's position. While I may have
initially made some disparaging remarks regarding the
U.S.-India nuclear deal, I did not publicly attack or oppose
the deal, Kasuri said. Indeed, he continued, I only asked for
similar treatment for Pakistan. (Comment: Post believes there
may be a misunderstanding on Kasuri's part about the
discussion at the Burns-Durrani meeting. We are reporting
Kasuri's comments as he expressed them. End Comment.)
--------------
Kasuri: Rose is a ROZ
--------------
8. (C) Kasuri asked about the status of the formation of
Reconstruction Opportunity Zones for Pakistan. Boucher
replied he expects draft legislation to go to Congress in the
next month or two, as laid out during President Bush's March
2006 visit. Boucher said that the exact areas had not been
determined, but they had recommended that the zones include
the larger Pak-Afghan border area, including Balochistan and
the earthquake-affected zones. An economic analysis of the
plan predicted that the most likely area to be developed
would be the existing Peshawar - Jalalabad industrial
corridor, as foreign investors would most likely be
interested in places that already have communications and
electricity infrastructure.
9. (C) Kasuri also asked whether textiles would be included
on the Reconstruction Opportunity Zone product list. Boucher
said that a number of products, including stone, marble,
gems, leather, and textiles would likely be included. The key
to inclusion of products, apart from their development
potential in Pakistan, Boucher said, was whether they would
compete with U.S. production. Sensitive products, like
textiles that would compete with U.S. products, would not be
on the list, but items like home-use textiles and carpets
that have no U.S. competition are possible. (Note: The Zones,
commonly abbreviated ROZ, are apparently pronounced as
"roses" in Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, which resulted in
ISLAMABAD 00000274 003.2 OF 004
some initial misunderstandings, as the U.S. has no formal
position on roses. End Note.)
--------------
Kasuri: Thanks for the Assistance...
Where Is It?
--------------
10. (C) Kasuri thanked Boucher for U.S. assistance with
funding the Federally Administered Tribal Areas development
plan and asked for a status on funding. Boucher said that
there will be substantial support for the plan, but the
numbers have not yet been finalized. Boucher said he expects
final figures by early February. Boucher said that he is
pleased that the European Union assistance budget for
Pakistan has increased, and that the U.S. would be happy to
work with Pakistan to help attract other donors for the plan.
11. (C) Kasuri also asked about the status of training for
local levy and Frontier Corps forces. Boucher replied that
the U.S. is looking into how it could be done, and that there
are no budget figures attached to these plans yet.
--------------
Kasuri: We Will Work With Canada
On Land Mine Alternatives
--------------
12. (C) Kasuri told Boucher that Canadian Foreign Minister
Peter MacKay, who had visited earlier in the week, said that
Canada supported the use of fencing to control movement over
the Pak-Afghan border, but is concerned about Pakistan's plan
to use land mines. MacKay offered assistance in developing
alternatives, such as the use of satellite telephones and
biometric cards. President Musharraf knew there would be
criticism of the mining and fencing plan, Kasuri said, but he
believes it will be the most effective way to control the
border. Pakistan is willing to listen to Canada's ideas.
Kasuri also asked if the U.S. could provide any assistance to
support the evolving plan.
-------------- --------------
Kasuri: We Are Ready to Send Afghan Refugees Home
-------------- --------------
13. (C) Kasuri said that he was pleased to hear Afghan
President Karzai say that he is in favor of bringing Afghan
refugees living in Pakistan back home. This is an important
issue for Pakistan's border security, Kasuri said. We need to
remove the connection between the tribal populations of
Pakistan and the militant elements amongst the Afghan
refugees in order to get Pakistan's own security under
control. Kasuri was convinced that it is time for the Afghan
refugees to go when he found out that the 450,000 refugees
living in Quetta outnumbr the city's settled population.
Boucher replied that the U.S. supports the
Pakistan-Afghanistan-UN High Commissioner for Refugees
Tripartite Commission. Pakistan's massive registration drive,
coupled with an effort to identify the home districts of
remaining Afghan refugees, will help identify incentives to
make repatriation a more attractive option for them.
-------------- --------------
Kasuri: We Are Ready For Greater Coordination With You
-------------- --------------
14. (C) Kasuri asked Boucher if cooperation is good between
the Central Intelligence Agency and Inter Services
Intelligence. President Musharraf is ready to take action
against militants, Kasuri said, if Pakistan is given accurate
intelligence about where they are. Technical and human
intelligence exchanges are especially important. Ambassador
ISLAMABAD 00000274 004.2 OF 004
Crocker intervened to assert that Pakistan should not rely
solely on intelligence agencies to identify militants, as
police in areas like Quetta should have a good idea of where
the trouble areas are and should be able to provide some
targeting support as well. Boucher added that this is another
reason to build the capabilities of Pakistan's Frontier
Corps, since their ranks are drawn from the local area.
-------------- --------------
Kasuri: What Are Our Chances For a Free Trade Agreement?
-------------- --------------
15. (C) Kasuri told Boucher about Pakistan's desire to
conclude a Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. Boucher
replied that the request is premature. First, Pakistan and
the U.S. must conclude a Bilateral Investment Treaty and the
legislation for the Reconstruction Opportunity Zones. Boucher
added that other issues militate against an agreement any
time soon, such as the fact that Pakistan's primary export -
textiles - is one of the U.S.'s most sensitive trade issues,
combined with a free-trade-wary Congress, topped by the fact
that it would take an extremely long time to negotiate.
-------------- --------------
Kasuri: Prospects For Agreement With India Look Good
-------------- --------------
16. (C) Boucher complimented Kasuri on the subtle diplomacy
of his recent lunch with Indian counterpart External Affairs
Minister Pranab Mukherjee. Kasuri agreed that personal
relationships need to develop between leaders for real
dialogue to occur. Kasuri was upbeat regarding prospects for
resolving Sir Creek, saying that it could be done
immediately. Regarding Kashmir, Kasuri said that there has
been progress through back-channel discussions over the last
ten days. He expressed some frustration with the lack of
resolution of the Siachen dispute, but said that a lot of
work had been done on the issue. Kasuri made no promises on a
public announcement of any agreements during Mukherjee's
January 13-15 visit, however.
17. (C) Kasuri said that Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
wants to visit Pakistan, and may do so in March, but that
U.S. encouragement would be helpful. Upcoming elections in
Uttar Pradesh will put pressure on Singh to back away from
closer ties with Pakistan, since "the Bharatiya Janata Party
is playing the Hindu card," Kasuri said. Boucher replied that
the U.S. continues to encourage dialogue, and Singh's
discussions with Bharatiya Janata Party leaders over Pakistan
policy should be interpreted as a positive sign.
--------------
Boucher: Strategic Dialogue Important to Us
--------------
18. (U) Boucher concluded the meeting by emphasizing his
support for the U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue.
19. (U) This cable was cleared by SCA - Caitlin Hayden.
CROCKER
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017
TAGS: PREL EAID PREF PK AF IN CA
SUBJECT: BOUCHER DISCUSSES AFGHANISTAN, INDIA, TRADE WITH
FOREIGN MINISTER
REF: ISLAMABAD 29
ISLAMABAD 00000274 001.2 OF 004
Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C) On January 12, Assistant Secretary of State for South
and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher met with Foreign
Minister Mian Khurshid Kasuri for a wide-ranging discussion,
which included Pak-Afghan and Pak-India relations,
Reconstruction Opportunity Zones, the development plan for
Pakistan's frontier region, border security, Afghan refugees,
intelligence cooperation, and possibilities for a
U.S.-Pakistan free trade agreement. End summary.
-------------- -
Boucher: Karzai Says Parliament Exchange Good;
Karzai's Confidence Up
-------------- -
2. (SBU) Boucher began the January 12 meeting with Pakistan
Foreign Minister Mian Khurshid Kasuri by saying that his
visit to Afghanistan went well. Boucher raised Pakistan's
interest in starting a Pak-Afghan parliamentary exchange with
Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who agreed that the exchange
is a good idea (reftel). Karzai agreed that the exchange is
important and promised to call Wolesi Jirga Speaker Younus
Qanooni to help get it started.
3. (C) Boucher said that Karzai is more confident this year
than last year, when he was faced with the growing Taliban
insurgency and had no police or military capability to deal
with it. This year, Boucher said, 3-4,000 police have been
trained and are deploying to southern Afghanistan. The
35,000-strong Afghan Army is more capable and better
equipped. In some provinces in east, central, and southern
Afghanistan, Boucher said, the combined efforts of the army
and police as well as good governance and development
programs have had a stabilizing effect. The full fruition of
these efforts will come next year, he predicted. Boucher said
that he believes NATO and Afghan troops will be able to
disrupt the Taliban's spring offensive. Police are being
deployed to northern Helmand province and Afghanistan's
interior, and Afghan police are backfilling areas after NATO
secures them.
--------------
Kasuri: What About Musa Qala?
--------------
4. (C) Kasuri was interested in Boucher's assessment of the
Musa Qala agreement. Boucher explained that British troops
departing from Musa Qala (Helmand Province) struck a deal
with local elders to control security, as there were no plans
for Afghan security forces to fill the gap. The area is
relatively peaceful, Boucher said, but we do not know if it
was because of the agreement. A weakness of the agreement,
Boucher said, is that it runs contrary to our overall goal in
Afghanistan to strengthen the central government. The deal is
similar to the North Waziristan agreement in Pakistan's
tribal areas, Boucher said, but Musa Qala does not have the
same strategic value for fighting the Taliban insurgency.
5. (C) Kasuri asked Boucher why media and think tank
assessments of Pak-Afghan border security are so downbeat
when U.S. officials privately have a much more optimistic
assessment. Boucher attributed this dissonance to the time
required for improved Afghan security, governance and
development efforts to show results to outside observers.
Boucher stressed that it is still important to focus on
ISLAMABAD 00000274 002.2 OF 004
improving efforts against the Taliban insurgency. We expect
that it will be a tough year with a lot of fighting, Boucher
said, and the flow of people from the Pakistan side of the
border is a major concern. Over the next 2-3 months it will
be important think about what we can do to make it difficult
for the Taliban to launch an offensive.
--------------
Kasuri: Karzai's Rhetoric
--------------
6. (C) Kasuri expressed frustration over Karzai's disparaging
remarks about Pakistan. During Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz's
January 4 trip to Afghanistan, Karzai and Aziz agreed to
avoid public bickering, but then Karzai used a joint press
event to level accusations at Pakistan. Boucher replied that
he thinks Karzai is playing to a domestic audience; during
his own visit, Boucher emphasized the importance of
Afghanistan focusing on its own challenges. Everyone,
however, is genuinely concerned about the capabilities of the
militants who are crossing the border from Pakistan into
Afghanistan, Boucher said.
-------------- --------------
Kasuri: Unfairly Maligned re: U.S.-India Nuke Deal Remarks
-------------- --------------
7. (C) Kasuri said that he wanted to set the record straight
after reading a recent cable from Pakistan Ambassador Mehmood
Ali Durrani describing a meeting with Under Secretary of
State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns. Durrani reported
that Burns had raised Kasuri's public rejection of the
U.S.-India nuclear agreement, Kasuri said, but Burns appears
to have misunderstood Kasuri's position. While I may have
initially made some disparaging remarks regarding the
U.S.-India nuclear deal, I did not publicly attack or oppose
the deal, Kasuri said. Indeed, he continued, I only asked for
similar treatment for Pakistan. (Comment: Post believes there
may be a misunderstanding on Kasuri's part about the
discussion at the Burns-Durrani meeting. We are reporting
Kasuri's comments as he expressed them. End Comment.)
--------------
Kasuri: Rose is a ROZ
--------------
8. (C) Kasuri asked about the status of the formation of
Reconstruction Opportunity Zones for Pakistan. Boucher
replied he expects draft legislation to go to Congress in the
next month or two, as laid out during President Bush's March
2006 visit. Boucher said that the exact areas had not been
determined, but they had recommended that the zones include
the larger Pak-Afghan border area, including Balochistan and
the earthquake-affected zones. An economic analysis of the
plan predicted that the most likely area to be developed
would be the existing Peshawar - Jalalabad industrial
corridor, as foreign investors would most likely be
interested in places that already have communications and
electricity infrastructure.
9. (C) Kasuri also asked whether textiles would be included
on the Reconstruction Opportunity Zone product list. Boucher
said that a number of products, including stone, marble,
gems, leather, and textiles would likely be included. The key
to inclusion of products, apart from their development
potential in Pakistan, Boucher said, was whether they would
compete with U.S. production. Sensitive products, like
textiles that would compete with U.S. products, would not be
on the list, but items like home-use textiles and carpets
that have no U.S. competition are possible. (Note: The Zones,
commonly abbreviated ROZ, are apparently pronounced as
"roses" in Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, which resulted in
ISLAMABAD 00000274 003.2 OF 004
some initial misunderstandings, as the U.S. has no formal
position on roses. End Note.)
--------------
Kasuri: Thanks for the Assistance...
Where Is It?
--------------
10. (C) Kasuri thanked Boucher for U.S. assistance with
funding the Federally Administered Tribal Areas development
plan and asked for a status on funding. Boucher said that
there will be substantial support for the plan, but the
numbers have not yet been finalized. Boucher said he expects
final figures by early February. Boucher said that he is
pleased that the European Union assistance budget for
Pakistan has increased, and that the U.S. would be happy to
work with Pakistan to help attract other donors for the plan.
11. (C) Kasuri also asked about the status of training for
local levy and Frontier Corps forces. Boucher replied that
the U.S. is looking into how it could be done, and that there
are no budget figures attached to these plans yet.
--------------
Kasuri: We Will Work With Canada
On Land Mine Alternatives
--------------
12. (C) Kasuri told Boucher that Canadian Foreign Minister
Peter MacKay, who had visited earlier in the week, said that
Canada supported the use of fencing to control movement over
the Pak-Afghan border, but is concerned about Pakistan's plan
to use land mines. MacKay offered assistance in developing
alternatives, such as the use of satellite telephones and
biometric cards. President Musharraf knew there would be
criticism of the mining and fencing plan, Kasuri said, but he
believes it will be the most effective way to control the
border. Pakistan is willing to listen to Canada's ideas.
Kasuri also asked if the U.S. could provide any assistance to
support the evolving plan.
-------------- --------------
Kasuri: We Are Ready to Send Afghan Refugees Home
-------------- --------------
13. (C) Kasuri said that he was pleased to hear Afghan
President Karzai say that he is in favor of bringing Afghan
refugees living in Pakistan back home. This is an important
issue for Pakistan's border security, Kasuri said. We need to
remove the connection between the tribal populations of
Pakistan and the militant elements amongst the Afghan
refugees in order to get Pakistan's own security under
control. Kasuri was convinced that it is time for the Afghan
refugees to go when he found out that the 450,000 refugees
living in Quetta outnumbr the city's settled population.
Boucher replied that the U.S. supports the
Pakistan-Afghanistan-UN High Commissioner for Refugees
Tripartite Commission. Pakistan's massive registration drive,
coupled with an effort to identify the home districts of
remaining Afghan refugees, will help identify incentives to
make repatriation a more attractive option for them.
-------------- --------------
Kasuri: We Are Ready For Greater Coordination With You
-------------- --------------
14. (C) Kasuri asked Boucher if cooperation is good between
the Central Intelligence Agency and Inter Services
Intelligence. President Musharraf is ready to take action
against militants, Kasuri said, if Pakistan is given accurate
intelligence about where they are. Technical and human
intelligence exchanges are especially important. Ambassador
ISLAMABAD 00000274 004.2 OF 004
Crocker intervened to assert that Pakistan should not rely
solely on intelligence agencies to identify militants, as
police in areas like Quetta should have a good idea of where
the trouble areas are and should be able to provide some
targeting support as well. Boucher added that this is another
reason to build the capabilities of Pakistan's Frontier
Corps, since their ranks are drawn from the local area.
-------------- --------------
Kasuri: What Are Our Chances For a Free Trade Agreement?
-------------- --------------
15. (C) Kasuri told Boucher about Pakistan's desire to
conclude a Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. Boucher
replied that the request is premature. First, Pakistan and
the U.S. must conclude a Bilateral Investment Treaty and the
legislation for the Reconstruction Opportunity Zones. Boucher
added that other issues militate against an agreement any
time soon, such as the fact that Pakistan's primary export -
textiles - is one of the U.S.'s most sensitive trade issues,
combined with a free-trade-wary Congress, topped by the fact
that it would take an extremely long time to negotiate.
-------------- --------------
Kasuri: Prospects For Agreement With India Look Good
-------------- --------------
16. (C) Boucher complimented Kasuri on the subtle diplomacy
of his recent lunch with Indian counterpart External Affairs
Minister Pranab Mukherjee. Kasuri agreed that personal
relationships need to develop between leaders for real
dialogue to occur. Kasuri was upbeat regarding prospects for
resolving Sir Creek, saying that it could be done
immediately. Regarding Kashmir, Kasuri said that there has
been progress through back-channel discussions over the last
ten days. He expressed some frustration with the lack of
resolution of the Siachen dispute, but said that a lot of
work had been done on the issue. Kasuri made no promises on a
public announcement of any agreements during Mukherjee's
January 13-15 visit, however.
17. (C) Kasuri said that Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
wants to visit Pakistan, and may do so in March, but that
U.S. encouragement would be helpful. Upcoming elections in
Uttar Pradesh will put pressure on Singh to back away from
closer ties with Pakistan, since "the Bharatiya Janata Party
is playing the Hindu card," Kasuri said. Boucher replied that
the U.S. continues to encourage dialogue, and Singh's
discussions with Bharatiya Janata Party leaders over Pakistan
policy should be interpreted as a positive sign.
--------------
Boucher: Strategic Dialogue Important to Us
--------------
18. (U) Boucher concluded the meeting by emphasizing his
support for the U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue.
19. (U) This cable was cleared by SCA - Caitlin Hayden.
CROCKER