POLITICAL SCENESETTER FOR CODEL PELOSI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000250

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PK PREL PTER PGOV KDEM OVIP OTRA
SUBJECT: POLITICAL SCENESETTER FOR CODEL PELOSI


1. (SBU) The U.S. Mission in Pakistan warmly welcomes your
January 27-28 visit to Islamabad. The Government of Pakistan
is a key ally in the War on Terror and an essential partner
in our efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. President Musharraf
and Prime Minister Aziz, both western-oriented modernizers,
are committed to moving Pakistan toward "enlightened
moderation" and to rooting out terrorism within Pakistan's
borders, despite the serious internal challenges this
entails. Your visit is an opportunity to underscore the
U.S.-Pakistani partnership in the long war on terror and to
reassure the Pakistani people that the U.S. is committed to a
broad-based, long-term strategic relationship with Pakistan.
Over the course of 2006, Pakistan's leaders confronted armed
insurrection by militant nationalists in Balochistan, ongoing
battles with anti-Coalition and extremist fighters in the
tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan, a turbulent
domestic political scene and the transition from relief
operations to long-term reconstruction in the areas
devastated by the October 2005 earthquake. In 2007, Pakistan
will press forward with a strategic plan to stabilize its
tribal areas, seek improved relations with both India and
Afghanistan and prepare to elect a new federal parliament and
provincial assemblies.

U.S./Pakistani Relations
--------------


2. (SBU) The U.S. has developed a close partnership with the
Government of Pakistan (GOP) since 9/11. Our partnership
with Pakistan covers the spectrum of bilateral engagement,
ranging from counterterrosim cooperation to a
counternarcotics air wing to the largest Fulbright senior
scholar exchange program in the world. The U.S. provides
financial and technical support to Pakistan on many fronts:
counterterrorism, military assistance and training,
earthquake relief and reconstruction, economic development,
social and educational capacity-building; counter-narcotics
assistance, law enforcement training, judicial reform, and
strenthening electoral institutions and training political
party workers in preparation for upcoming parliamentary
elections.


3. (SBU) President Musharraf and the Government of Pakistan
have shown considerable courage in aligning their country
with the U.S. and in advancing a vision of enlightened
moderation. Musharraf often is often described by local
critics as a puppet of the West for attempting to crack down
on Islamic militants and introducing progressive legislation,
such as the Women's Protection Bill. In our public diplomacy
efforts, we thank both Musharraf for his courageous
leadership and the people of Pakistan for their friendship,
taking care not to encourage the perception that the
President is pursuing his agenda only to keep the West happy.

Domestic Issues
--------------


4. (SBU) Women's Rights/Domestic Politics: On December 1,
2006, President Musharraf signed the Women's Protection Act
into law. This legislation marks the first time that a a
Pakistani government has successfully rolled back Islamist
legislation since the incremental Islamization of the country
began in the 1980s. Now that he has signed the bill into law,
Musharraf has signaled that he will continue to pursue
additional pro-women legislation.


5. (SBU) Democracy: President Musharraf has committed -
publicly and privately - to moving Pakistan toward a
civilian-led democracy. General elections for the national
and provicial assemblies are anticipated in late 2007/early

2008. Some opposition leaders fear that Musharraf will
attempt to engineer election results that benefit him, but
Musharraf himself has emphasized the imperative of holding
transparent and credible elections. The U.S. Embassy has
set an ambitious agenda of assistance to the Election
Commission of Pakistan to lay the institutional foundation
for open and credible elections.


6. (SBU) Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA):
President Musharraf's September 5 agreement with tribal
elders in North Waziristan -- which was meant to halt the
"talibanization" of the region and to decrease attacks
originating from Pakistan against coalition forces in
Afghanistan -- has yet to stem cross-border insurgency or the
spread of extremist influence in Pakistan's border areas.
Convinced that political outreach to secure the support of
local population is the only way to defeat militant
extremists, Musharraf argues that it will take time for the
traditional tribal structures to secure the area.
Acknowledging that the North Waziristan accord has not

ISLAMABAD 00000250 002 OF 003


produced satisfactory results, in late December 2006
Musharraf ordered military and civilian officials to
re-assess its implementation. Since that meeting, the
government has moved forward with the appointment of new
leadership to key law enforcement positions, enhancement of
immigration/customs controls at official border crossings,
investigation of possible selective fencing and mining of the
border and re-engage with tribal leaders in North Waziristan
to improve implementation of the September 5 accord. The
U.S. Government is engaged in an ambitious program to assess
economic and development needs and counter-insurgency
capacity in the FATA, in order to provide appropriate
development and security assistance.


7. (SBU) Balochistan: Balochistan is the largest province in
Pakistan geographically (40 percent of the land mass),but
the smallest in population and the most backwards in terms of
social and economic development. Baloch nationalism and
anti-Islamabad rhetoric has risen in recent months,
exacerbated by the death of Nawab Akbar Bugti, a prominent
Baloch leader who led an armed insurrection against the
government, in a a security operation conducted by the
Pakistani Army in August 2006. Human rights activists allege
that over the course of the past year, hundreds of Baloch
nationalists and their sympathesizers have "disappeared" into
the custody of Pakistan securirty agencies. The Supreme
Court of Pakistan is in the midst of an investigation
demanding that the Government account for these missing
individuals. Local observers agree that the federal
government's policies in Balochistan have only increased
tensions between the province and Islamabad. It may take
"decades" to rebuld confidence between the province and the
center, even if the federal government follows through with a
ambitious development assistance package for the province.

Pakistan's Neighborhood
--------------


8. (SBU) Afghanistan: The relationship between Afghanistan
and Pakistan suffers from mutual suspicion and recrimination.
Afghanistan is concerned about cross-border infiltration;
Pakistan is unnerved by the prospect of India using its
diplomatic and reconstruction assets in Afghanistan to gain
advantage in the region. President Musharraf and most
governmental and military leaders are vocal in their support
for the Karzai government to solidify its control over the
country. To that end, the Government cooperates on
operational security with the Afghan National Army and ISAF
forces through regular Tripartite Commission meetings. Both
capitals engage in bouts of unhelpful public rhetoric, each
blaming the other for not doing enough to prosecute the
battle against their common enemies in the tribal areas along
the border.


9. (SBU) Afghanistan (cont): During dinner with President
Bush in September 2006, the two Presidents agreed to hold
jirgas to address security issues on the Pak-Afghan border.
Since then, each capital has put forward a different vision
for these jirgas, with President Karzai seeking an expansive
national gathering for Afghanistan, while the Pakistanis
prefer to restrict focus and participation to the Pashtun
Belt along the Pak-Afghan border. Pakistani officials
recently placed renewed emphasis on encouraging 2.6 million
Afghans in Pakistan to return home and closing problematic
Afghan refugee camps in Balochistan and the North West
Frontier Province, which have become safehavens for Taliban
and other miscreants,


10. (SBU) India/Kashmir: President Musharraf and his
senior advisors have publically reinforced Pakistan's
commitment to end the Kashmiri militancy. Many Pakistani
observers believe that the government's ability to control
Kashmiri militants would be greatly enhanced if India showed
more flexibility on a political resolution of the Kashmir
conflict. On December 5, 2006, President Musharraf outlined
his position on Kashmir in an interview with an Indian
broadcaster, saying that Pakistan would be willing to give up
its claim on Kashmir if India and Pakistan were to agree on a
form of self-governance for the region. Foreign Minister
Mukerjee visited Islamabad in mid-January 2007; Prime
Minister Singh may visit Islamabad as early as March 2007,
ahead of Musharraf's visit to the SAARC summit in New Delhi
in April 2007.


11. (SBU) Iran: Pakistan has a long and complicated
relationship with its neighbor Iran. Pakistani officials
often allude to Pakistan's vulnerability to Iranian
trouble-making, citing the influence of Tehran on Pakistan's
sizable Shi'a community (approximately 20 percent of the
population). Pakistani opinion leaders and politicians

ISLAMABAD 00000250 003 OF 003


recognize that continued controversy over Iran's nuclear
program has the potential to destabilize the region. Pakistan
has publically urged Iran to take the EU-3 and U.S. proposals
seriously and begin negotiations forthwith. The government
has also called for all parties to abide by their
international obligations and to pursue a negotiated
resolution.


12. (SBU) China: China's interaction with Pakistan sticks
to the bottom line: business. Islamabad and Beijing do not
address democracy, human rights, or Islamic extremism as part
of their bilateral relationship. China is well regarded by
the Pakistani public for its high-profile investments in
Pakistan's infrastructure (the Karakoram Highway and the
development of port facilities and energy resources in
Balochistan). China is admired for its economic prowess.
The first Pak-China joint military exercise in Pakistan -
"Friendship 2006" - occurred in early December, shortly after
the successful state visit of Chinese President Hu.
CROCKER