Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ISLAMABAD2316
2007-05-23 11:44:00
SECRET
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER: CHAIRMAN JCS GENERAL PACE MEETING

Tags:  PREL PK AF IN 
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 002316 

SIPDIS

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PK AF IN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER: CHAIRMAN JCS GENERAL PACE MEETING
WITH PAKISTAN JCS GENERAL EHSAN UL HAQ

ISLAMABAD 00002316 001.2 OF 004


Classified by Charge d'Affaires Peter Bodde, reasons
1.4 (b),(d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 002316

SIPDIS

//////CORRECTED COPY - CLASSIFIED BY LINE ADDED//////

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PK AF IN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER: CHAIRMAN JCS GENERAL PACE MEETING
WITH PAKISTAN JCS GENERAL EHSAN UL HAQ

ISLAMABAD 00002316 001.2 OF 004


Classified by Charge d'Affaires Peter Bodde, reasons
1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C//NF) Embassy Islamabad welcomes your meeting with
Chief of Joint Staff General Ehsan Ul Haq of the Pakistan
Army. Your meeting comes at an important time in
U.S.-Pakistan relations: Politicians, opinion makers, and
the press are paying close attention to what Pakistanis view
as unfair public criticism of their policies and efforts on
the War on Terror. The mid-March suspension of Chief Justice
Iftikhar Chaudhry from the Pakistan Supreme Court has
challenged President Musharraf's political party, and an
April 30 meeting in Ankara between Musharraf and Afghan
President Hamid Karzai, although it enhanced ties between the
two countries' governments, failed to resolve essential
disagreements between the leaders. On May 12, violent
clashes between political parties in Karachi left over 40
people dead and hundreds wounded.


2. (C//NF) The current government in Islamabad is facing
challenges, but these challenges are neither new to
Pakistan's leadership nor insurmountable. Your meeting with
General Ul Haq is an opportunity to reassure a key ally that
the U.S. remains committed to our alliance. While General Ul
Haq is expecting a frank exchange with you in private about
the War on Terror, the FATA, the Taliban, and al-Qa'ida, the
Government of Pakistan even more than usual needs the meeting
to highlight a public posture that encourages Pakistani honor
and pride. Public statements that emphasize our appreciation
for Pakistan's significant assistance and sacrifices to the
war on terror - and our interest in sustaining a broad-based
strategic partnership with Pakistan will help assuage the
fears of Pakistanis who are increasingly worried that we
intend to down-shift our relationship with Pakistan.

U.S./Pak Relations
--------------


3. (C//NF) The U.S. has developed a close partnership with
the Government of Pakistan (GOP) since 9/11. We provide
financial and technical support on many fronts:
counterterrorism; military assistance and training;

earthquake relief and reconstruction; economic development;
social and educational capacity building; the largest
Fulbright senior scholar exchange program in the world; law
enforcement training; judicial reform; counter-narcotics
assistance; intelligence sharing; and support to strengthen
electoral institutions and political party workers in
preparation for upcoming Parliamentary elections.


4. (C//NF) President Musharraf and the Government of Pakistan
have shown considerable courage in aligning their country
with the U.S. and in advancing a platform of enlightened
moderation. Musharraf often is cast as a puppet of the West
when he attempts to crack down on militants or introduce
progressive legislation, such as the Women's Protection Bill.
In our public diplomacy efforts, we are careful to thank
Musharraf for his leadership and the people of Pakistan for
their friendship while not encouraging the perception that
the President is pursuing his agenda only to keep the West
happy.


5. (C//NF) Pakistani politicians and the press continue to
express concern that House Resolution 1 (which aims to
implement 9/11 Commission recommendations) will negatively
impact the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Pakistanis view
proposed certification requirements on Pakistan's commitment
to the War on Terror and democracy as successors to the
Pressler Amendment and herald the proposed legislation as
proof that the U.S. has near-term plans to end its financial
and technical support to Pakistan.

Domestic Issues
--------------


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Classified by Chrage d'Affaires Peter Bodde, reasons 1.4
(b),(d)


6. (C) Democracy: President Musharraf has committed publicly
and privately to moving Pakistan toward a civilian-led
government. He has also committed to holding general
elections on time, which, according to Pakistan's
Constitution, must be before January 15, 2008. Musharraf
seems to understand the imperative of holding credible
elections. The U.S. Embassy has set an ambitious agenda of
working with the Government to organize a credible and
transparent election. We are assisting the Election
Commission of Pakistan to ensure that all Pakistani citizens
who are eligible to vote are included on the country's new
computerized voter rolls. The U.S. is also strengthening
parties across Pakistan's political spectrum by offering
technical assistance focused on organizing issue-based
campaigns, increasing party membership, and engaging the
Election Commission of Pakistan on rules and laws that affect
elections.


7. (S//NF) Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA): Over
the past year, Pakistan has been implementing a new,
multi-faceted strategy in the tribal areas, focused on
strengthening the government's writ; tamping down on the
spread of talibanization; increasing development assistance;
and engaging in military strikes on militant compounds based
on intelligence provided by the U.S. and Coalition forces.
Effective development and enhanced security in FATA are
essential to rendering the area inhospitable to terrorism and
extremism, and the U.S. has an important role to play on both
fronts. To support the GOP's comprehensive approach to the
FATA, the State Department has asked Congress for $750
million over five years to support development activities in
FATA, and $72 million in FY07 to enhance the capacity of
Pakistan's Frontier Corps.


8. (S//NF) FATA continued: As part of its overall strategy,
the GOP entered into an agreement with tribal elders in North
Waziristan in September 2006. The Government believes that
the agreement will halt the talibanization of the area and
decrease attacks originating from Pakistan against Coalition
forces in Afghanistan. Musharraf recognizes that the
agreement has not met all of its goals. His government is
pushing local tribes to "keep up their side of the bargain,"
but he reserves the right to take military action if
necessary.


9. (C//NF) FATA continued: Pakistan's January 16 strike on a
militant training base in Zamzola, South Waziristan,
precipitated an ongoing series of deadly retaliatory attacks
- over 20 to date - throughout the country. They have
resulted in the death of several high-ranking police
officers, as well as scores of civilians and military
personnel. On April 28, a suicide bomber attempted to
assassinate Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao near Peshawar; 28
people died and 40 were wounded. The GOP's resolve to fight
the militants in this region has not abated, but the
casualties from these attacks, along with the approximately
800 War on Terror-related deaths of Pakistani military and
paramilitary personnel, fuels public questioning of
Pakistan's GWOT participation.


10. (C) Domestic Politics: President Musharraf uses the term
"enlightened moderation" to describe his policies that
discourage the radicalization of Islam and promote the
empowerment of women. Musharraf is the first leader of
Pakistan since the 1950s to say "no" to Pakistan's radical
Islamists. The Women's Protection Bill, signed in December
2006, was the first-ever rollback of Zia-ul Haq's
Islamization measures of the 1970's. Musharraf has also
re-energized the Council of Islamic Ideology, a nationally
respected and forward-looking body of Islamic scholars.

The Neighborhood

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Classified by Charge d'Affaires Peter Bodde, reasons 1.4
(b),(d)


11. (S) Afghanistan: The relationship between Afghanistan
and Pakistan continues to suffer from mutual suspicion and
recrimination, with Afghanistan concerned about cross-border
infiltration and Pakistan worried by the prospect of India
using its diplomatic assets in Afghanistan to foment
instability in Balochistan. Both capitals engage in bouts of
unhelpful public rhetoric, each blaming the other for the
presence of militants in the border region, and for not doing
enough to prosecute the battle against their common enemies.


12. (C//NF) Afghanistan (cont): Since Presidents Musharraf
and Karzai met over dinner with President Bush in September
2006, relations between the two countries have remained
chilly. A late April 2007 meeting between Musharraf, Karzai,
and Turkish President Sezer in Ankara failed to resolve
essential disagreements between the two leaders. Tensions
between the two Presidents are sometimes mirrored by troops
on the border, as can be seen by recent firing incidents.
Meanwhile, in an attempt to encourage some of Pakistan's 2.6
million remaining Afghan refugees to return home, Pakistan
has announced its intention to close four refugee camps in

2007. Refugees who do not repatriate will be resettled in
other camps in Pakistan.


13. (S//NF) India: Relations between India and Pakistan have
rarely been better, but problems remain. In February 2004,
President Musharraf and then-Indian-Prime Minister Vajpayee
started the "Composite Dialogue" peace process, which has
significantly reduced tensions between the two countries.
The fourth round of the Composite Dialogue began in March
2007 with talks on core disputes as well as cooperation in
trade, agriculture, education, and other areas. The dialogue
has produced Confidence-Building Measures, such as a Nuclear
Risk Reduction Treaty, bus-lines across the Line of Control
between Pakistani and Indian Kashmir, and people-to-people
cultural exchanges. Although the core Kashmir, Siachen, and
Sir Creek disputes remain unresolved, senior officials from
the countries meet and speak with one another on these and
other important strategic matters regularly. Pakistan has
appreciated President Bush's even-handed statements about the
need for good relations between India and Pakistan and for a
peaceful resolution of the dispute on terms acceptable to
Pakistan, India, and the people of Kashmir.


14. (C) The Middle East: In January, President Musharraf
renewed his two-year old effort to be a leader of the
moderate Muslim world with trips to nine Islamic capitals in
four weeks. Musharraf is pushing the leaders of Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, Jordan, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia,
Indonesia, Iran, and Turkey to unite around a "new forceful
initiative" to work on issues of concern, including
Israel/Palestine, Iraq, and Lebanon.


15. (C) Iran: Pakistan has a long and complicated
relationship with its neighbor Iran. Government of Pakistan
officials often allude to Pakistan's vulnerability to Iranian
troublemaking, citing the influence of Tehran on Pakistan's
sizable Shi'a community, approximately 20 percent of the
population. Privately, Prime Minister Aziz and Foreign
Minister Kasuri recognize that Iran's nuclear program has the
potential to destabilize the region, including Pakistan. Both
have urged their Iranian counterparts to take the EU-3 and
U.S. proposals seriously and begin negotiations forthwith.
Publicly, the Government of Pakistan has called for all
parties to abide by their international obligations and to
pursue a negotiated resolution. On February 5, President
Musharraf met with Iranian President Ahmedinejad in Tehran.
They discussed security in the Gulf and Afghanistan as well
as implementation of a multi-billion dollar gas pipeline that
would transit Iran, Pakistan, and India. Musharraf used his

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Classified by Charge d'Affaires Peter Bodde, reason 1.4
(b),(d)

trip to Iran to deliver tough points on Iran's unhelpful
interference in the internal affairs of Lebanon, Iraq, and
Afghanistan and the need to tamp down Sunni-Shi'a tensions.

16.(C) China: Chinese interaction with Pakistan generally
sticks to the bottom line of business, eschewing discussion
of democracy, human rights, or Islamic extremism. China is
well regarded by the Pakistan public for its high-profile
investments in Pakistan's infrastructure (the Karakoram
Highway and the development of port facilities in Gwadar and
energy resources in Balochistan,),and for its economic
prowess. Chinese military sales - unencumbered by the
Congressional notifications and rigorous releasability
reviews that characterize U.S. defense sales - are often
sweetened by attractive financing arrangements. Even so,
Pakistani military officials candidly admit that they get
what they pay for with Chinese arms and equipment and that
they prefer to buy American. The first Pak-China joint
military exercise in Pakistan - "Friendship 2006" - occurred
in early December 2006, shortly after the successful state
visit of Chinese President Hu to Pakistan.



BODDE