RIFT IN PAKISTAN'S ISLAMIST PARTY ALLIANCE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000189

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PK
SUBJECT: RIFT IN PAKISTAN'S ISLAMIST PARTY ALLIANCE

REF: 06 ISLAMABAD 22572


1. (SBU) Summary: The leader of Jamaat-e-Islami (JI),Qazi
Hussain Ahmed, announced January 4 that he will quit as
chairman of Pakistan's six-party Islamist political alliance,
the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA). JI and Jamiat
Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) -- its main MMA partner -- are at
odds over several issues. Qazi's announcement underscores
how brittle the alliance is going into this year's general
elections. An MMA split would have a significant impact on
the composition of the next national and provincial
assemblies. If JI and JUI-F go their separate ways before
elections, then the Islamist parties will likely lose seats
and clout. End Summary.

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Why does JI leader Qazi want to relinquish MMA chair?
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2. (SBU) Qazi announced his intention to quit as MMA chairman
one week before the MMA Supreme Council's scheduled January
11 meeting to elect its top officials. This council,
characterized by an insider as a useful tool in resolving
intra-MMA differences, convenes on an ad hoc basis to discuss
political strategy. Qazi is now distancing himself from this
central body of the MMA because he is at odds with longtime
ally, JUI-F leader Fazlur Rehman, over several key issues:

-- JI wanted all MMA parliamentarians to resign in response
to the government enacting the Women's Protection Bill in
December (reftel). The more pragmatic JUI-F, holding senior
partner status in the North-West Frontier Province and
Baluchistan provincial assemblies, refused to give up its
seats.

-- JI is convinced that free and fair elections will not
happen under President Musharraf. JUI-F is willing to
contest elections under Musharraf.

-- JI boycotted the January 10 by-poll in Bajaur, held
because the JI incumbent resigned in protest against the
October 2006 Pakistani military action against a Bajaur
madrassa. (Note: This probably cost JI a seat in parliament
as the Awami National Party won the by-poll.) JUI-F urged
people to participate in the process.


3. (SBU) Of these issues, appropriate reaction to the Women's
Protection Bill is the most divisive. The MMA was united in
opposing the bill, and Qazi thought he had a deal with the
other MMA parties to resign en masse if the bill became law.
After the bill passed, Rehman's JUI-F and two smaller MMA
parties backtracked on the resignation idea, claiming there
was never a formal agreement. Qazi's move played well to
JI's ideological support-base and showed the public his
displeasure with JUI-F; Rehman demonstrated that his clout
within the MMA coalition equalled that of the JI amir.

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Where does MMA go from here?
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4. (SBU) Political observers in Pakistan agree that the MMA
has reached a crossroads, but opinions vary about what will
happen next. Three outcomes are in play:

-- The Supreme Council bemoans Qazi's decision and convinces
him to remain MMA chairman. JI and JUI-F negotiate a
face-saving solution to the resignation issue. Qazi cements
his position and the MMA marches on as a united political
force.

-- Qazi sticks to his principle and quits as chairman. The
Supreme Council elevates Rehman (the only figure besides azi
popular enough to keep the alliance together) in his place.

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A weakened MMA plods on with an uncertain future.

-- The MMA breaks up. Pundits have predicted the MMA's
demise for several years, but the JI and JUI-F agendas may
now be too far apart to contest upcoming elections on a joint
platform. The parties then go it alone -- JI without JUI-F's
pivotal vote bank in North-West Frontier Province and
Baluchistan, JUI-F without JI's grassroots strength in Punjab
and Sindh.

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Comment
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5. (SBU) In 2002, the MMA shook up Pakistan's political
landscape and achieved real influence for the Islamist
parties -- but this coalition is running out of steam.
Ideology drives JI, whereas JUI-F pragmatically accumulates
political power. But an MMA break-up is by no means a
foregone conclusion. The MMA is often in turmoil -- a JI
Senator told PolOff recently that the current intra-MMA
dispute reflects a "healthy discussion." Although Qazi and
Rehman trade barbs in the media, both realize that the MMA as
a whole is greater than the sum of its parts. They
cooperated effectively in the 2002 general elections and
parlayed 11 percent of the popular vote into almost 20
percent of parliament's seats. Even if the MMA parties
contest seats together again this time, they will not receive
the extra boost they got in 2002 when the government's
intelligence establishment influenced voter turnout and vote
counts in their favor. End Comment.

CROCKER