WHAT THE CHIEF JUSTICE CONTROVERSY IS. . .AND IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001329

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FROM AMBASSADOR CROCKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2017
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PHUM PK PREL
SUBJECT: WHAT THE CHIEF JUSTICE CONTROVERSY IS. . .AND IS
NOT

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Two weeks in -- and occasionally breathless
commentary in the international press aside -- observers
increasingly believe that President Musharraf's government
has not been seriously wounded by the Chief Justice
controversy. Barring the outbreak of widespread street
violence leading to civilian deaths, we do not see
Musharraf's situation changing in the near future. Indeed,
if anything, some good may eventually come of this episode.


2. (C) While things can change quickly in this country, we
present here some important observations.

WHAT THE CHIEF JUSTICE CONTROVERSY IS NOT -- AS OF NOW


3. (C) THIS IS NOT AN IMMINENT THREAT TO MUSHARRAF'S RULE:
He has weathered worse storms, including the public reaction
to the Damadola attack; the Danish Cartoon protests; and two
assassination attempts. Both Damadola and the Danish
cartoons resonated with the poor and working classes. This
controversy does not. The vast majority of Pakistanis are
not adequately literate to understand the intricacies of the
Chief Justice proceedings. Even senior PPP leaders remind us
that their constituents do not see how this controversy
affects the things that matter most to them: food, shelter,
and personal safety.


4. (C) THIS IS NOT THE EVENT THAT WILL UNITE THE
OPPOSITION: The PPP is maintaining a low profile and has
been at pains to separate itself from the MMA at rallies.
Not only does the PPP not want to strengthen the religious
parties, it does not want street protests to become violent
or spiral out of control, which might in turn bring about a
military crack-down. The PPP worries that widespread
violence might lead to a postponement of Benazir Bhutto's
return, which is still under negotiation.


5. (C) THIS IS NOT AN EVENT THAT HAS CAUSED IRREPARABLE,
EXTREME HARM TO MUSHARRAF'S REPUTATION: The President's
quick apology to Geo Television, his agreeing to be
interviewed on a Geo program on March 20, and his arranging
for the highly-respected Justice Bagwandas to become the new
Acting Supreme Court Judge, rather than the initially
appointed (and less admired) Javed Iqbal, have helped to curb
domestic criticism and prevent extreme political damage.
That said, some PPP leaders believe that Musharraf is
adequately worried about his reputation that he may seek to
renew negotiations that would allow a cooperative PPP/PML-Q
arrangement either before or after the next election. While
the PPP initially told us that negotiations were "off"
because of the Chief Justice controversy, they now tell us
they are willing to talk again.


WHAT THIS CONTROVERSY IS -- AS OF NOW


6. (C) THE EPISODE IS AN INDICTMENT OF THE PAKISTANI
POLICE: The PML-Q, PPP, and MMA agree on one thing about the
next election: law and order will be a major issue for
voters. The refusal of the police who stormed the Geo
television station to take orders from Minister of
Information Durrani -- an exchange that was broadcast live --
resonates with poor Pakistanis, who bear the brunt of police
corruption. The government's difficulty assigning blame to
senior officials also resonates with Pakistanis. Ever since
a reorganization scheme removed district officials and
provincial home secretaries from the police chain of command,

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authority over the police has resided only with the Minister
of Interior in Islamabad. Observers have noted a marked rise
in police misconduct as accountability from civilian
authorities has become more distant. PML leaders tell us
they believe the police misconduct issue could hurt them in
the election if the government does not act to rein in
misbehavior.


7. (C) THE DEMONSTRATIONS INDICATE THAT THE POLICE NEED
MORE TRAINING: Lack of riot control skills was painfully
clear as police hurled at protesters bricks that had first
been thrown at the police. Additionally, the destruction at
Geo television and at lawyers' offices around the country
indicates the general lack of professional training and
competence in many parts of the police forces. (Note: In
this vein, Post identified riot control training as an
important priority for 2007 Anti-Terrorism Assistance
programming. End Note.)


8. (C) EXTERNAL COMMENTARY IS NOT WELCOME: Both Pakistani
Government and opposition contacts have palpably resented
public comments by EU officials criticizing the handling of
the Chief Justice Affair. The resentment on both sides has
little to do with the merits of the complaints. Instead, as
our contacts remind us, Pakistanis, including elected
officials, have been resolving the problem on their own. The
civil society prefers the controversy to focus on its own
complaints and accomplishments. They also note that they are
in the best position to produce statements that will prevent
the medicine (the protests) from becoming worse than the
disease.


9. (C) Comment: Musharraf's initial failure to seek
adequate political advice before moving against the Chief
Justice could have damaged his and the PML's electoral
prospects. Rapid distancing of the PML from the controversy,
coupled with Musharraf's common sense damage control seems to
have prevented irreparable harm. The reputation of the
police, though, has clearly suffered a significant (and
deserved) blow. Indeed, this episode is an important
reminder of the fundamental importance of our various law
enforcement training programs -- and the need to consider
expanding those programs to include riot control training.



CROCKER