AS PROTESTS OVER CHIEF JUSTICE CONTROVERSY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 001267

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2017
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PHUM PK PREL
SUBJECT: AS PROTESTS OVER CHIEF JUSTICE CONTROVERSY
CONTINUE, GOVERNMENT SOFTENS APPROACH

REF: ISLAMABAD 1234 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Protests over the proceedings against Chief
Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry continued over the
weekend, drawing an estimated crowd of 10,000 - 12,000 in
Lahore on Saturday. The protests continue to be minimally
violent by Pakistani standards. The Chief Justice controversy
continues to dominate headlines and conversations, and a
nationwide "wheeljam strike" is planned for March 21, the
next scheduled day for the Supreme Judicial Council's hearing
against Chaudhry. President Musharraf called an emergency
meeting of senior government officials late March 18 and
reportedly chastised them for not providing sufficient public
support. At the meeting, he outlined his strategy to deal
with the crisis. Musharraf confirmed that Justice Rana
Bhagwandas -- the second most senior judge on the Supreme
Court -- will assume the role of Acting Chief Justice upon
his return from abroad March 23. Throughout the crisis, the
Pakistan People's Party has remained low-key. The silence has
been partly to allow lawyers' associations to take the lead,
but the People's Party is preparing to assume a more public
role. Both the Minister of Interior and the Pakistan Muslim
League Secretary General acknowledged to Ambassador that
holding police accountable for the raid on Geo T.V. will be
important. Thus far, the U.S. Government's low-key approach
to the controversy has been appropriate, as Pakistan's civil
society has risen to the perceived challenge to a free press
and judiciary, leaving the U.S. out of the headlines. End
Summary.

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Protests Continue
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2. (U) Protests continued over the weekend and into the week
in Lahore, Karachi, and Peshawar. On March 17, demonstrations
in Lahore drew 10,000 - 12,000 people. At one point, lawyers
began to throw stones and other items at police, who
responded in kind and ultimately resorted to baton charges,
tear gas, and arrests to subdue the crowd. Sporadic
demonstrations continued throughout Lahore on March 19, but
no roadblocks or other disruptions were reported. Overall,
the protests have been minimally violent by Pakistan
standards, especially compared to last year's demonstrations
over the Danish cartoons.


3. (U) Protests in Karachi and Peshawar continued throughout
the weekend as well, but have been more subdued. A Karachi
Bar Association demonstration planned for March 19 was
postponed to March 20 due to rain. In the Northwest Frontier
Province (NWFP),lawyers continued to protest on March 17 and
March 19 with symbolic one hour strikes at courts in Peshawar
and other key cities in the province. (Comment: With the
NWFP's MMA government having received a fair degree of
criticism in recent months over the deteriorating law and
order situation, Peshawar observers expect that the NWFP's
provincial government to work hard to maintain a peaceful
atmosphere at demonstrations over the Chief Justice's
removal. End Comment.)


4. (SBU) A nationwide "wheeljam protest" (in which no traffic
is allowed to transit major city routes and commercial
activities cease) has been announced for March 21, the next
scheduled day for the Supreme Judicial Council's hearing

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against Chaudhry. Political party representatives tell us
that police are arresting party organizers in the lead up to
the protests, which are scheduled for all cities. Pakistan
People's Party officials are expecting routes into Islamabad
to be blocked ahead of the March 21 demonstration, and are
telling their members not already in Islamabad to remain (and
demonstrate) where they are and not to bother coming to the
capital city.

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President Musharraf Calls Emergency Meeting
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5. (C) On March 18, President Musharraf called together
senior government officials and coalition partners for a
hastily-arranged meeting. Press reports and outside observers
reported that Musharraf was unhappy that senior government
officials had not sufficiently supported him in public, and
directed them to fight the opposition's efforts to recast the
proceedings against Justice Chaudhry as a crisis. We have
already seen government officials carrying out their marching
orders to enhance public outreach. Late on March 19, the
Foreign Secretary convened Ambassador to hear the
Government's side of the story, which we will report septel.


6. (C) Pakistan Muslim League Secretary General Senator
Mushahid Hussain, who attended the meeting, told us that
Musharraf outlined his strategy to deal with the crisis.
Musharraf confirmed that the ban against the Geo television
program "Aaj Kamran Khan Kay Saath" ("Today With Kamran
Khan") will be lifted and that Musharraf will appear on
Khan's March 19 show. Musharraf also said that Justice Rana
Bhagwandas -- the second most senior judge on the Supreme
Court -- will assume the role of Acting Chief Justice and, if
he wishes, the head of the Supreme Judicial Council on his
March 23 return from India. Although this will slow down the
process, Mushahid said, it is important to ensure the
credibility of the process and not allow it to become
politicized.

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Pakistan People's Party Supports Protests,
But Public Profile is Low
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7. (C) Notable in its absence, the Pakistan People's Party
has maintained a low public profile since the beginning of
the protests. Central Information Secretary Sherry Rehman
told PolOff that this has been partly deliberate, since
lawyers' associations (many of whose members also belong to
the party) have asked that they be allowed to take the lead
in the fight against the government. (Note: Party officials
estimate that 80-100 Peoples Party members are currently
behind bars, but those are mostly lawyers who were
demonstrating as law association members. By contrast,
Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) officials estimate
that they have approximately 57 people behind bars as a
result of the protests. End Note.) Even though the lawyers
asked to take the lead, they will soon tire, according to
Rehman. The People's Party is ramping up to fill the gap. PPP
leaders have cleared their calendars for Thursday, Rehman
said, because they assume they will be arrested during
protests planned for March 21.


8. (C) The People's Party is wary of allowing the protests to
play to the advantage of the religious parties, Rehman said,

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so while there has been contact with the Muttahida
Majlis-e-Amal religious alliance, coordination has been
minimal. Public speculation that the People's Party's silence
over the judicial crisis is a signal of an electoral deal
with the Musharraf government is wrong, Rehman added. The
deal is off, as of now. If Benazir Bhutto were to make any
arrangement with Musharraf at this point, she said, workers
would leave the party.

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Government Officials Tell Ambassador Accountability Important
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10. (C) On March 19, Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao told the
Ambassador that the police raid on Geo television station was
a result of mass confusion after a student radical group
started throwing rocks at police from inside the Geo
building. When the police stormed the building in response,
one of the protesters grabbed a police officer, and then the
situation got out of control. Nevertheless, he agreed that
accountability for the incident was important. Pakistan
Muslim League Secretary General Senator Mushahid Hussain told
the Ambassador that he knows the whole Chief Justice
situation looks bad, and it is a result of bad advice given
to President Musharraf by the Law Minister and the Attorney
General. Mushahid agreed with the Ambassador that the Law
Minister should be sacked and suggested that Islamabad's
Deputy Inspector General of Police should probably be fired
as well. Mushahid closed by saying that the government will
now have to bend over backwards to prove that there is no
judicial crisis and that justice will be done.

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Government Hears Public Outcry
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11. (C) Comment: The Chief Justice controversy has shown that
elements of Pakistan's civil society are willing to step up
to the plate when they see a perceived threat to their
constitutional freedoms. Punishment is likely for
higher-level police officials who directed the raid against
Geo television station, and there likely will be more
government affirmations of respect for press freedom. Most
importantly, it appears that the Government of Pakistan is
anxious to place responsibility for resolving the Chief
Justice's suspension into the lap of the Supreme Judicial
Council.


12. (C) Comment, cont. The Government appears to be reacting
in a measured way to counteract public outcry, but no one is
predicting a prompt resolution of the crisis. Without the
distraction of the Cricket World Cup (Pakistan lost to
Ireland March 18 -- a huge blow to national pride) the media
will continue to focus on the Chief Justice controversy. End
Comment.
CROCKER