Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07IRANRPODUBAI50
2007-08-13 13:14:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Iran RPO Dubai
Cable title:  

IRAN ANNOUNCES ESFANDIARI, TAJBAKHSH INVESTIGATION OVER, BUT

Tags:  PREL PGOV IR CASC 
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VZCZCXRO8776
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0050/01 2251314
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 131314Z AUG 07
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0160
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0110
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0144
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0153
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000050 

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NOFORN
SIPDIS

LONDON FOR GAYLE; BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD; BAKU FOR HAUGEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/13/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR CASC
SUBJECT: IRAN ANNOUNCES ESFANDIARI, TAJBAKHSH INVESTIGATION OVER, BUT
OMITS NEXT STEP

REF: IRPO DUBAI 0045

RPO DUBAI 00000050 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian L Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, Dubai, US Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000050

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

LONDON FOR GAYLE; BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD; BAKU FOR HAUGEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/13/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR CASC
SUBJECT: IRAN ANNOUNCES ESFANDIARI, TAJBAKHSH INVESTIGATION OVER, BUT
OMITS NEXT STEP

REF: IRPO DUBAI 0045

RPO DUBAI 00000050 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian L Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, Dubai, US Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)
1.(S/NF) Summary: Iran's judiciary put out a statement, as
reported August 12, that it had completed its investigations
into the case of two detained Iranian-Americans, Haleh
Esfandiari and Kian Tajbakhsh, without stating what would happen
next. Unconfirmed evidence suggests that Iran may feel it has
accomplished much of what it wanted with their arrests and may
be seeking to de-escalate the situation, including a report that
Esfandiari's jailers were looking for a reason to release her.
In this light, IRPO recommends low-key press guidance on this
latest development that does not give the government any excuse
not to release them. This stance will need to be revisited once
the judiciary announces the next step in their cases. End
summary

2.(U) Iran's judiciary put out a statement, as reported August
12, that it had completed its investigations into the case of
two detained Iranian-Americans, Haleh Esfandiari and Kian
Tajbakhsh. Esfandiari, a director at the Woodrow Wilson Center
in Washington, and Tajbaksh, a consultant with the Open Society
Institute, have been detained since May on allegations that they
were trying to spark a "soft" revolution in Iran. According to
the deputy prosecutor, the two detainees must complete a series
of (undefined) written tasks before their fate is decided. The
prosecutor added that Iranian-American Ali Shakeri's case has no
connection to the cases of Esfandiari and Tajbakhsh and gave no
further information about his case. He made no mention of
Iranian-American journalist Parnaz Azima's case. (Note: Shakeri
is also imprisoned; Azima has not been detained but her passport
was taken by the government. Endnote)

Served their purpose?
--------------

3.(C) While it is unclear whether the judiciary's statement
means they will be released or be prosecuted for crimes against

the state, there are several indications that Iran may be
seeking to de-escalate this controversial issue that has brought
(well-deserved) domestic and international criticism upon the
government. It is possible that Iran may feel it has already
gained as much as it can from the arrests - by creating a
chilling effect regarding contacts with the US with the airing
of their "confessions" and showing that the US cannot protect
anyone within the borders of Iran - while realizing that a trade
for Iranians detained in Iraq is not likely. While it is
difficult to gauge the reaction in Iran to the "documentary"
about Esfandiari, Tajbakhsh, and recently released academic
Ramin Jahanbegloo, one Iranian told IRPoff that after the film,
she had the impression that they had done "something" wrong.

4.(U) A July 21 editorial in Tehran Hezbollah, commenting on the
televised "confessions," wrote, "These confessions proved that
the hegemonic system's antagonism toward the Muslim world, and
the Islamic Republic especially, has taken on a new form in the
past decade, appearing as efforts to promote freedom, democracy
and....This attractive appearance has unfortunately managed to
deceive many academics and journalists at home. In the most
optimistic scenarios, they intended to serve the nation. They
were fooled by America's crocodile tears for this nation and
unknowingly drawn into a soft subversion project. In recent
years, there have been many like Jahanbegloo and Tajbakhsh who
have infiltrated Iran's academic and media centers, twisting the
minds of students, journalists and researchers to serve the
interests of the hegemonic system. These confessions could
serve as a warning to them and their audience to change their
paths from pleasing the White House to serving the nation."

5.(S/NF) Despite the hyperbole, one former Iranian politician
called televised "confessions" a useless tool in Iran. In an
email communication with IRPO Director, the reformer said
politicians do not accept such media spectacles. Reformist
Iranian newspaper Hambastegi declared the era of televised
confessions over. It criticized the government for broadcasting
statements of supposed opponents of the Islamic Republic who
have not even been put on trial.

Looking to release Esfandiari?
--------------

6.(S/NF) According to the politician -- considered a reliable
source -- a recently released political prisoner who was
reportedly held close to Esfandiari in Evin prison claimed to
have heard the jailers were looking for a way to release
Esfandiari. That person indicated Esfandiari is not being
treated badly, in relative terms, although it was noted that

RPO DUBAI 00000050 002.2 OF 002


there is no way that solitary confinement in Evin could be
anything but bad.

No further arrests reported
--------------

7.(U) As reported July 25, Iranian Intelligence Minister Ejei
said authorities had detained several people for having ties
with two Iranian-Americans arrested in May, calling those
detained "local agents" part of "network" used by Esfandiari and
Tajbakhsh. On July 31, the Iranian judiciary spokesman
clarified Ejei's statements, saying no one has been arrested.

8.(S/NF) IRPO has been seeking out information about the
situation of people we know to have had past ties to US think
tanks, including Woodrow Wilson Center, and have not to date
heard of any arrests directly linked to this investigation. The
government's overall clampdown on civil society continues
unabated, however.

- One Iranian-American who says he was repeatedly interrogated
over the past few months about his past affiliations with US
think tanks and Esfandiari was never taken into custody and was
recently allowed to leave the country. He does not plan to
return any time soon.

- One Iranian academic who had a fellowship at a Washington
think tank in the past had his passport taken by the government
when he returned to Iran this summer, but he indicates by email
he is confident it will be returned soon. He is trying to
return to a fellowship at a US university.

- One Iranian analyst who gave several lectures at Woodrow
Wilson Center has reportedly not been detained.

- Another Iranian who has lectured at Woodrow Wilson Center and
who is currently in the US plans to return shortly to Iran.

9.(S/NF) Comment: A number of Iranians have told IRPoffs that
based on similar incidents in the past, they believe the four
Iranian-Americans currently in prison or without their passports
will soon be released. We would note, however, that the current
government seems less predictable than previous ones. In the
view of the former politician, if the US government engages Iran
directly to try to get the Iranian-Americans released, Iran
will make demands such as an end to democracy funding or a swap
with Iranian detainees in Iraq; conversely, if the US calls for
their unconditional release, Iran is likely to hold them longer
in prison. The politician thought indirect channels such as the
EU and the UN would likely be more effective.

10.(S) Comment Continued: If it is true that the Iranian
authorities are looking for a reason to release Esfandiari --
and hopefully, the others -- this recent announcement could be
the first step. Esfandiari's aired "confession," in particular,
did not contain anything truly incriminating, although that
would not stop the government from pursuing the case if it
chose. In any case, IRPO recommends that until Iran's next
announcement on their case, USG public statements should be
restrained in tone, saying simply that we hope this announcement
indicates that these two, as well as Shakeri, will soon be
released and that all, including Azima, be allowed to leave the
country. If Iran's next statement is that the detainees will be
put on trial, we should then greatly increase the pressure.
BURNS