PROFESSOR DISCUSSES DETAINED AMERICANS, NUCLEAR DISCUSSIONS,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000045

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SIPDIS

LONDON FOR GAYLE; BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/28/2017
TAGS: IR PGOV PREL KNNP KPLS
SUBJECT: PROFESSOR DISCUSSES DETAINED AMERICANS, NUCLEAR DISCUSSIONS,
AND CIVIL SOCIETY IN IRAN

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CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1.(S) Summary: A political science professor from Tehran who met
with IRPOffs June 21 predicted that detained Iranian-American
scholar Haleh Esfandiari would be released within a week or two,
with bail. The professor did not speak on any authority but
made the prediction based on how past cases were handled. The
contact also predicted that the Iranian government would concede
and accept suspension of enrichment - which they would see as
surrender - by January or February 2008, and that by then the
incentives package offered by the P5+1 would be off the table
and Iran would get nothing in return. He claimed that Deputy
National Security Council Secretary Vaidi had told him, when he
shared this prediction with him, not to put money onit. The
professor also confirmed that the government crackdown on
academia and civil society is having a marked chilling effect on
the intellectual sector of society, and that fewer people are
willing to risk attending conferences in foreign countries. The
contact also said that Voice of America television is widely
viewed in Iran and he regards it as credible and balanced,
although Iranians assume that any program guests have the
backing of the US government. End Summary.

Detained Americans
--------------

2.(S) A political science professor who knows detained
Iranian-American scholar Haleh Esfandiari predicted that she and
the other detained Iranian-Americans would be released within a
week or two, with bail. He made clear he did not speak on any
authority but made the prediction based on how past cases were
handled, including Iranian-Canadian academic Ramin Jahanbegloo.
The contact saw as a good sign the recent statement by an
Iranian official that while the detainees had admitted to
wrongdoing, they were working for good. This, the professor
said, could serve as a justification the government could give
for their release. He expressed disappointment that there was
no avenue for him and others to lobby for their release. All of
the scholars who spoke at the Woodrow Wilson Center are nervous
now, the contact said, adding that one of them he knew had been
interrogated recently. The professor said he himself was
questioned in 2005 after going to a Track II conference in
Athens and that many of the questions were about Haleh
Esfandiari. Based on this, he said, he had warned Esfandiari
not to go to Iran. (Note: A former deputy minister under
President Khatami also predicted these detainees would be
released soon, saying Iran realizes it is not getting anything
for their detention and that Esfandiari's published works makes
clear her neutral stance on US-Iran issues. End note.)

Nuclear discussions and sanctions
--------------

3.(S) The professor also discussed the nuclear negotiations,
predicting that the government would concede and accept
suspension of enrichment - which they would see as surrender -
by January or February 2008, and that by then the incentives
package offered by the P5+1 would be off the table, and Iran
would get nothing in return. The contact claimed, however, to
have shared his prediction with Deputy National Security
Council Secretary Vaidi who told him not to put money on it. He
said Vaidi told him - without explaining - that there was more
to the issue than the nuclear issue. The professor also
repeated an Iranian government claim that even temporarily
stopping the centrifuges from spinning would damage them.

4.(S) According to the professor, former nuclear negotiator
Hossein Mousavian was released due to the intervention of
Expediency Council chair Rafsanjani. The contact, who claimed
to know Mousavian from his association with the Expediency
Council's Center for Strategic Research where Mousavian is the
deputy, opined that the arrest was a warning to Mousavian to
stop criticizing the president's administration in public. He
said Mousavian thought Iran should have accepted the P5+1
incentives package, and along with some others on the left,
supports suspension. (Note: other contacts have also said there
is a faction in Iranian circles, including Rafsanjani, that
support suspension. End note.)

5.(C) The contact opined that sanctions are hurting the
economy, citing rumors that Iran has lost $200 billion in

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foreign investment to Dubai. (Note: The contact recounted a
popular joke about rationing: A man asked a Nigerian, "What is
your opinion about the rationing of chicken?" The Nigerian
replies, "What is a chicken?" He asks a Swiss man the same
question. The Swiss man replies, "What is rationing?" He asks
an Iranian the same question, and the Iranian replies, "What is
an opinion?" End note.)

Important regime figures, corruption
--------------

6.(C) Asked about where President Ahmadi-Nejad ranks on the list
of most important people in the Iranian government, the contact
placed him in the top five. The most important person is
Supreme Leader Khamenei, he said; then Expediency Council chair
Rafsanjani, Guardian Council chair Jannati, Assembly of Experts
chair Meshkini, President Ahmadi-Nejad, IRGC commander Safavi,
Judiciary chief Shahrudi, and Islamic Coalition Party head
Asgaroladi.

7.(S) On the topic of corruption, the contact said that though
Iranians view Rafsanjani and his family as corrupt because they
use connections and access to amass personal wealth, President
Ahmadi-Nejad reportedly taking 350 million tomans (approx. USD
337,000) from the Tehran municipality for his presidential
campaign is not seen as corruption because it was not for
personal use. In contrast to Rafsanjani's sons, the Supreme
Leader's sons stay out of business and therefore are not
regarded as corrupt. Asked about the Supreme Leader's son
Mojtaba, the contact said he has some behind-the-scenes power
and is said to be link to the paramilitary group Ansar-e
Hizballah. The contact also said that the Supreme Leader's
office has 2-3 billion dollars per year to dispense, including
to other countries. Asked about Iranian public opinion of its
government's actions in Iraq, the contact said that people
resent the fact that Iran sends money to Iraq and to Palestinian
groups that is needed at home.

Civil society and polling
--------------

8.(C) The professor said that the crackdown on civil society
and the arrests of Iranian-American scholars have had a chilling
effect on the academic and NGO community in Iran. Scholars who
attend conferences in foreign countries are regularly
interrogated or even arrested upon their return, he said.
(Note: While the professor acknowledged that government
intimidation of civil society has been quite effective, he still
plans to travel to the US for a conference in July. End note.)

9.(C) In the case of Ayatollah Boroujerdi, the dissident cleric
who was arrested in 2006 along with several of his followers,
the contact said he has seen rumors in the press that Boroujerdi
had received the death penalty by the religious court, but he
said it would be very unusual for the government to carry out
such a sentence against a cleric. He said that even in cases of
non-clerics accused of apostasy, such as scholar Hashem
Aghajari, the death sentence was overturned and he was released.

10.(S) The contact claimed that several NGOs are actually run by
the Intelligence Ministry (MOIS). For example, he said it was
widely known in the academic and NGO community that the Research
Institute for Strategic Studies is affiliated with MOIS, even
though it claims to be affiliated with the Education Ministry.
The contact said that MOIS conducts public opinion polls through
NGO cut-outs. According to him, the most reliable polls are
conducted by MOIS, but the results are never released to the
public. In general, he said, polling in Iran is unreliable.
Iranians tend to be wary of pollsters because they are never
sure to whom they are speaking.


Elections and voting, Voice of America
--------------

11.(S) Asked his opinion about prospects for the 2008 Majles
elections, the professor said he does not expect much change.
He predicted that the Guardian Council will again disqualify
many reformist candidates. The professor allowed, however that
more centrist-rightists could predominate in next elections.
The contact criticized voting procedures in Iran as ripe for
abuse, saying there are no voting districts or voter's
registration. Iranians simply present their identity card at

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any polling station anywhere in the country in order to vote.
Iranians can even vote for Majles representatives in districts
where they do not reside. (Note: another contact who reportedly
worked in the past on the staff of the Guardian Council claimed
that there are 90 million national identity cards in a country
with a population of 70 million, inferring the potential for
massive fraud. End note.)

12.(C) The professor added that voting for the five designated
religious minority Majles representatives is nominally limited
to members of the respective religious minorities, but since
religion is not indicated on the national identity card, it can
be difficult to enforce. The polling stations for those five
elections are generally centers of worship, or community centers
belonging to the designated religious minorities. The contact
added that during the Khatami presidency, religious minorities
petitioned to be issued separate identity cards that indicated
religion. This was reportedly in order to protect them being
punished for violating restrictions placed on Muslims, but not
non-Muslims; for example, possession of alcohol.

13.(C) Regarding Voice of America broadcasts, the professor
claimed that VOA programs are widely viewed and that he hears
all different kinds of people taking about them. The professor
regards VOA programming as generally credible and balanced,
although he conceded that Iranians tend to believe that whoever
is a guest on VOA programs is supported by the US government.
For example, he said, when Reza Pahlavi was on VOA and was
referred to as the "prince," Iranians assumed that the USG
supports the monarchist cause; then, when a nationalist is
featured on the program, people assume the USG supports Iranian
nationalists.

14.(S) Comment: We would assess this political science
professor, known for several years, as a generally reliable
contact, although his direct contact with influential actors in
Iran is unknown. In addition to his academic work, he is
involved in civil society, particularly on women's issues. He
is not a general advocate of US-Iran engagement, expressing fear
in a previous meeting that if Iran reaches a nuclear deal with
the US, the US would turn its back on human rights in Iran.
IRPoffs assured him that even if the international community
reaches an agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue, the US
would maintain its emphasis on the rights of the Iranian people.
BURNS