SUPPORT DEEP IN IRAN FOR US TALKS, IN ONE VIEW

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000038

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LONDON FOR GAYLE; PARIS FOR WALLER; BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD; BAKU
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR IZ PHUM
SUBJECT: SUPPORT DEEP IN IRAN FOR US TALKS, IN ONE VIEW
(C-NE7-00968)

REF: RPO DUBAI 0032

RPO DUBAI 00000038 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian L Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, Dubai, US Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1.(S/NF) Summary. There is more support now in Iran for talks
with the US than ever before, despite opposition from some
pockets based on ideological and economic grounds, said an
Iranian political scientist to IRPO Director May 24. The
academic claimed that a "successful" US-Iran meeting would
require a deliverable for the Iranian side in order to avoid
attacks back home but was less clear on what Iran was prepared
to deliver. The political scientist opined that agreement on
the MEK or the Irbil 5 would be optimal but that a positive
statement by the US government after the meeting would likely
suffice. The academic said it is possible that the recent spat
of arrests of Iranian-Americans may be an attempt from one camp
to kill the talks. He predicted that Haleh Esfandiari would be
released soon. He reasoned the government will not want to
further provoke the Iranian elite, who hold her in high regard,
an argument than sounds more hopeful than realistic. End
Summary.

Upcoming US-Iran talks - Why now?
-------------- --

2.(S/NF) An Iranian political scientist discussed May 24 the
upcoming US-Iran talks, the case of Halah Esfandiari, and
internal political dynamics (latter subject to be reported
septel) with IRPO Director. The academic opined that there is
more support now in Iran than ever before for talking with the
US. He indicated there was a wider realization within the
government that only through the US can Iran resolve its
security and economic issues. Talking to Europe will get it
nowhere. Plus, the Iranian government has seen that US
seriousness in its threat of a military strike - although it
does not think the US would likely strike at the present time.
It has also seen US resolve in confronting Iran in Iraq and
forging an international coalition leading to UN Security
Council resolutions. Iran would prefer to avoid a third
resolution, he said, for the psychological impact it would have
at home. In addition, he said, the Iranian government
understands that its people want ties with the US and
international links. In particular, he said, the Iranian people
see interaction with the US as the key to modernization. The
academic claimed that the Iranian people as a whole are very
pro-American and still believe that - unlike European countries
- the US can resolve the problems in the region. Suspicions of
both UK and Russian intentions still run high, he said. For
instance, he claimed that Iran would never seize US soldiers
like it did the British soldiers because the Iranian public will
believe Brits were acting illegally but would be less likely to
believe this of Americans.

3.(S/NF) As much as you can dislike President Ahmadi-Nejad's
politics, said the professor, he presents a "new" opportunity
for progress in bilateral relations because unlike his
predecessor, Khatami, he is not afraid of anything. If he wants
to do something, he will. No other president has written
letters to a US president, for instance. Nonetheless, he said,
there remain some in Iran opposed to talks with the US -- either
for ideological grounds or because they profit economically from
the status quo -- who may try to torpedo any new openings. He
acknowledged this could be one motivation for the recent spat of
arrests of Iranian-Americans, but also said that the government
is truly afraid of efforts to orchestrate a velvet revolution
there and seeks to intimidate its populace through arrests and
crackdowns like the current one on bad hijab.

4.(S/NF) The academic opined that in order for the talks to
continue and to succeed, the Iranians must leave the meeting
with some kind of deliverable. Otherwise, hardliners opposed to
talks will attack them for betraying national interests. He
said there is great concern about a rerun of Afghanistan, in
which Iranians believe their "complete" cooperation with the US
on Afghanistan was rewarded by the Axis-of-Evil designation.
The academic thought this was why there was no meeting between
the Secretary and Foreign Minister Mottaki in Sharm el-Sheikh.
He said politicians are frightened for the sake of their careers
to go back to Tehran empty-handed.

5.(S/NF) When pressed by IRPoff to define what Iranians would

RPO DUBAI 00000038 002.2 OF 002


call a deliverable, the academic said that an agreement on the
Mujahhadin-e Khalq (MEK) or release of the so-called Irbil 5
would be optimal, but he realized that this may be too much to
expect from a first meeting. He added that there is complete
realism on the Iranian side that resolution to a major issue
like the nuclear issue is not achievable from such a meeting.
The political scientist said that a positive statement from the
US government about the May 28 meeting after its conclusion -
preferably from the highest level -- would likely suffice for a
first meeting. He maintained that positive statements from the
US on Iran get the largest number of hits on Iranian news
websites, such as Baztab. He added that such a statement could
also touch on other areas, such as a restatement that the US
wanted to resolve the nuclear issue diplomatically, even though
the talks were focused solely on Iraq.

6.(S//NF) Asked whether the Iranian government continues to view
the MEK is a real threat, he answered not in its current state
but it could be if it got a new foreign backer. He repeated
what all of our contacts say - that the MEK are seen as traitors
in Iran for their cooperation with Iraq during the Iran-Iraq
war. On the Irbil 5, the academic said the fact that their
families had been given permission to see the detainees had been
viewed positively in Iran as an indication that the US was
looking to resolve this issue. When asked, he said the Iranian
people see the detainees as an important issue and would be
happy to see it resolved.

7.(S/NF) When asked what kind of deliverable Iran could give the
US in talks, the academic was vaguer. He said that the sight of
the US and Iran working together could help Iraqi PM Maliki
enforce greater security in Iraq and that Iran could use its
influence with Shia groups. He maintained that Iran's primary
goal in Iraq was national security, not religious interests.
Above all, he said, Iran wanted to ensure that future Iraqi
governments will not threaten Iran as Saddam Hussein's
government had. When asked how to address Arab concerns about a
US-Iran meeting on Iraq, he essentially said that Arab countries
should come to grips with reality. He maintained that Iran is
not a threat to the region but that at the same time, as long as
there is instability in the Middle East, Iran will see an
opportunity for itself to play a role. The way to preempt Iran,
indicated the academic, was for the US and Arabs to work to
resolve the conflicts.

8.(S/NF) The political scientist called on the US not to lose
the support of the Iranian people. He repeated what we hear
from many - though not all - contacts. He maintained that the
Iranian people remain largely pro-US, but that a US attack would
cause the Iranian people to turn against the US and rally around
their government. He maintained that Iranians are just trying
to make the best of their situation and that they have no taste
for upheaval, either brought about by external or internal
forces.

9.(S/NF) Comment: The academic, who knows Haleh Esfandiari,
said he believed she would be released soon. He said that,
compared to Ramin Jahanbegloo, Esfandiari has much closer ties
to Iranian academics and their deep respect. He reasoned that
the Iranian government would not want to risk the anger from the
Iranian elite that holding her for very long would engender.
This view seems somewhat naove, given that the government never
had the support of the Iranian elite and it seems unlikely it
would care about alienating them further, but we hope his
prediction comes true.
BURNS