CONFLICTING CLAIMS WHETHER MOUSAVIAN WILL BE RELEASED

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000031

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/9/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR KNNP
SUBJECT: CONFLICTING CLAIMS WHETHER MOUSAVIAN WILL BE RELEASED

RPO DUBAI 00000031 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian L. Burns, Director, Iran Regional
Presence Office, Dubai, UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1.(S/NF) Summary: An Iranian close to conservative circles
believes former nuclear negotiator Mousavian is innocent of
espionage charges but unlikely to be released soon. Another
source close to Rafsanjani thinks he will be released within
days. The first source believes Ahmadi-Nejad ordered
Mousavian's arrest as an indirect hit against Rafsanjani and the
think tank linked to the Expediency Council. The source claims
to have tried to find out information about Mousavian from the
head of Evin Prison but was told Mousavian was being held in the
section controlled by the Ministry of Intelligence. End summary

Arrest of Mousavian
--------------

2.(S/NF) A doctor reportedly close to Iranian conservative
circles told IRPO Director May 7 that he believes that former
nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian is innocent of the charges
of espionage, but he doubts Mousavian will be released soon. In
contrast, a source close to Rafsanjani -- who also believed
that Mousavian was innocent -- said May 7 that he thought
Mousavian would be released in a few days. (Note: There are
unconfirmed reports May 9 that Mousavian will be released on
bail. End note)

Scapegoat?
--------------

3.(S/NF) The doctor believes Ahmadi-Nejad ordered Mousavian's
arrest to target Rafsanjani and the Center for Strategic
Research. Because the president cannot go directly after
Expediency Council head Rafsanjani, he goes after Mousavian, who
is a close associate, reasoned the doctor. The source claimed
that the arrest was also designed to discredit the think tank
affiliated with the Expediency Council, Center for Strategic
Research, where Mousavian is the deputy head. The center is
headed by former Supreme National Security Council secretary
Hojatoleslam Hassan Rowhani.

4.(S/NF) The doctor said the arrest was then initiated by the
Ministry of Intelligence. He claimed the Minister Ejei is
actually "with" Rafsanjani, but because he is in Ahmadi-Nejad's
cabinet, he cannot ignore the president's orders.

5.(S/NF) The doctor claimed the "facts" of the case do not add
up. The authorities claim they have been monitoring Mousavian
for 2-3 years. If this is true, he said, it does not reflect
well on Iranian intelligence since Mousavian has been allowed to
travel frequently outside the country. He also claimed in true
cases of espionage, the government hides the charges. So far
Mousavian has been accused of spying for the UK and Switzerland,
said the doctor. He assumes, however, that the government will
later point the finger at the US, particularly given the
relationship between the US and the Swiss, its protecting power
in Iran.

Chilling effect
--------------

6.(S/NF) When asked if anyone were lobbying inside Iran on
Mousavian's behalf, the doctor said he doubts anyone will speak
up for him out of fear of being tainted. The doctor said
"everyone" in Iran is really frightened as a result of the
arrest of Mousavian, the highest level Iranian official to be
arrested on such serious charges in some time. (Note: Al-Alam
TV reported May 8 that Minister Ejei said two other people were
summoned on the same charge as Mousavian and are under
investigation. End note) The source said only MP Boroujerdi
has raised his case publicly but without coming to his defense.
(Note: According to Fars News May 6, Iranian parliament's
National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, chaired by
Alaoddin Boroujerdi, summoned Intelligence Minister Ejei to
brief on Mousavian's detention. HYPERLINK
"http://opensource.dni.sgov.gov/cgi-bin/cqcgi/ @rware.env?CQ
_CUR_DOCUMENT=1&CQ_USER_NAME=Mos2Bookmark&CQ_ PASSWORD=Document&CQ
_LOGIN=Yes&CQ_DO_QUERY=Yes&CQ_CUR_LIBRARY=ALL &CQ_QUERY_STRING.DOC
UMENT_ID=IAP20070506950034&CQ_MOS2_DO_QUERY_B OOKMARK_ARTICLE=Yes&
TrackDocID=IAP20070506950034" \\l "HIT0006#HIT0006" Boroujerdi said he
would inform the press about the case as soon as he receives the
needed details. Endnote)


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Prison within a prison
--------------

7.(S/NF) According to the doctor, Mousavian flew back to Tehran,
left the airport with no problem, drove back to his house, and
there about 15 officials arrived to take him away, blindfolded.
The doctor said Mousavian is being held at in the section of
Evin prison run by the Ministry of Intelligence. He claimed
Mousavian's wife called him for help because he is friends with
the head of Evin. The source said when he tried to find out any
information, the prison's central office told him they do not
even have access to Mousavian. The doctor assumed he is being
tortured.

8.(S/NF) Comment: We have not heard before the assertion that
Ahmadi-Nejad may have ordered Mousavian's arrest to target the
Center for Strategic Research, rather than just Rafsanjani
himself. If true, it raises the question of whether Rowhani
will also be accused. The second source cited who is close to
Rafsanjani was very concerned about Mousavian's arrest but did
not comment further on the case, other than predicting his
release.
BURNS