FORMER POLICE GENERAL SAYS RAFSANJANI UP, AHMADINEJAD DOWN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000003

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SUBJECT: FORMER POLICE GENERAL SAYS RAFSANJANI UP, AHMADINEJAD DOWN

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CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian L. Burns, Director, Iran Regional
Presence Office, Dubai, UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1.(S/NF) Summary: A retired police general told IRPO Director
December 19 that he sees Rafsanjani and Qalibaf on the up-swing
in Iran, and Ahmadinejad on his way out. He warned against
outside attack, saying that if hardliners are left alone to face
the problems they are creating in the country, they will fall.
An outside attack, however, would be welcomed by hardliners
because it would allow them to solidify their hold on power. At
the same time, he said Iran is trying to manage the level of
violence in Iraq to deter a follow-on US attack against Iran,
while at the same time avoiding a wider Sunni-Shia conflict.
This apparent contradiction may stem from a differentiation
between an aerial attack of short duration and a full-scale
invasion by US ground troops, or it may be that these views are
symptomatic of paradoxes in Iranian thinking. In any case, his
prediction of a Rafsanjani resurgence post-election and an
Ahmadinejad fall echo views of other contacts in the broader
Rafsanjani camp. End summary

2.(S/NF) An Iranian-American contact arranged a meeting December
19 with a retired police general, who had worked in the police
legal office before retiring. When the former official was
asked why he agreed to meet IRPO, he said to help save his
country. He said when he came to Dubai a few days earlier, he
was moved to tears by the city's development. He hadn't been in
Dubai in close to 30 years, when the city had been "nothing."
Iran should look like Dubai today, he said. People in Iran are
very unhappy, looking for a liberator from the small group that
has taken over the country. Although he is retired, he claims
to have continuing contacts with police and intelligence
officers through his involvement in a Tehran social organization.

Welcome conflict~.
--------------

3.(S/NF) As do many contacts, the retired general maintained
that this government would welcome an outside attack. An attack
would unite the people, he said, and allow the government to
divert attention from the bad economic situation. He claimed
that absent confrontation, the current leaders will fall,
out-maneuvered by Expediency Council Chair Rafsanjani and former
President Khatami. He said he did not oppose sanctions that hit
the government economically. He claimed the Iranian people
understand that their government is responsible for the current
tensions and they know that the government sends Hizballah and
Hamas money. Therefore, they won't blame the US for sanctions.

Or not???
--------------

4.(S/NF) The former police general claimed that Iran is serious
about stopping violence in Iraq and that Iran is very afraid of
the consequences of this violence, but then qualified Iran's
intentions. The government will attempt to prevent a wider war
between Shia and Sunnis, and it recognizes Saudi Arabia's fears
that Muqtada al-Sadr is assuming a Nasser-type persona in the
region. On the other hand, Iran has seen the capability of the
US military and does not want to be next. Therefore, it will
offer some help on Iraq, but he sees little chance at full
US-Iran cooperation in Iran. He claimed Talabani cried for help
in Tehran, but Iran is not keeping its promises to him. He
described Iran's policy in Iraq as no peace, but no big war, and
called it a "bad" policy.

View of internal politics
--------------

5.(S/NF) The Iranian people are not organized, said the former
official, otherwise they could demand change. He said the poor
are the most dissatisfied, including the lower ranks of the
IRGC, because of inflation and economic hardship in the country.
He said, for instance, the price of meat went up 20 percent in
one month. When asked why IRGC ranks would be dissatisfied
given that they receive subsidized food, he said supplies are
spotty and the quality is bad.

6.(S/NF) He maintained that the country is divided into two main
factions - fundamentalists and moderates. Within the
fundamentalists are three sub-groups: 1) the
Mesbah-Yazdi/Ahmadinejad group; 2) supporters of the Supreme
Leader and Mehdi HYPERLINK

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"http://opensource.dni.sgov.gov/cgi-bin/cqcgi/ @rware.env?CQ
_CUR_DOCUMENT=1&CQ_USER_NAME=Mos2Bookmark&CQ_ PASSWORD=Document&CQ
_LOGIN=Yes&CQ_DO_QUERY=Yes&CQ_CUR_LIBRARY=ALL &CQ_QUERY_STRING.DOC
UMENT_ID=IAP20061221950040&CQ_MOS2_DO_QUERY_B OOKMARK_ARTICLE=Yes&
TrackDocID=IAP20061221950040" \\l "HIT0003#HIT0003" Chamran, a
principle-ist and top vote getter in the Tehran municipal
election; and 3) opponents of IRGC/Baseej role in politics, who
largely support Rafsanjani. He divided the moderate camp into
two sub-groups: 1) supporters of former Tehran Mayor Karbashchi;
and 2) supporters of Khatami.

7.(S/NF) The former official said the big turnout in the
elections was the result of the rivalry between Mesbah-Yazdi and
Rafsanjani. He claimed reformers and Rafsanjani are the
winners, and Ahmadinejad is the loser in the December 15
elections. He noted that Khatami's brother Ahmad won a Kerman
Province seat in the Assembly of Experts. Rafsanjani still has a
great deal of influence, he said, and people think he can save
the country. The source, obviously pro-Rafsanjani, described
Rafsanjani as pro-Western and said he wants to draw back
European money that is starting to steer away from Iran. The
source claimed that half of the IRGC support Rafsanjani and that
IRGC support was the reason behind Rafsanjani's high vote count
in Tehran.

Predicting Ahmadinejad's fall
--------------

8.(S/NF) The former official predicted (as have other contacts
with a similar political orientation) that Ahmadinejad is on his
way out. His fall may be accelerated, the source said, if the
new Tehran municipal council launches an investigation against
him for corruption. The source claimed that USD 350 million
disappeared from the city budget under then mayor Ahmadinejad,
but until now, the city council had not investigated Ahmadinejad
because the president threatened to launch other investigations.
(Note: He also claimed that after the student protests against
Ahmadinejad at Amir Kabir University just prior to the December
elections, the authorities arrested a person at the television
station for airing video of the incident. He also said a few of
the student protesters were arrested and some escaped. Endnote)

9.(S/NF) The former official echoed others' views that the
position of Tehran mayor is a launching pad for the next
president. He maintained that in the Ahmadinejad-Qalibaf
rivalry, Ahmadinejad has the Supreme Leader's support and Tehran
Mayor Qalibaf (also former IRGC and former head of the LEF) has
Rafsanjani's support. He maintained that Qalibaf also has
support among the IRGC and the police. (Note: the source
claimed that even though IRGC officials now head the police,
career police counselors make the actual decisions.) He said
Qalibaf also has the support of Ayatollah Abbas Va'ez-Tabasi
(Note: the head of the powerful Imam Reza Endowment in Mashhad,
viewed as a mainstream traditionalist. Endnote). He maintained
that among Qalibaf's accomplishments as head of the LEF was
computerizing the organization, and since becoming mayor of
Tehran, he finished the IT modernization project that Karbashchi
had started.

Terrorism links
--------------

10.(S/NF) The former police official claims that at the time of
the US invasion of Afghanistan, the IRGC allowed 350 Al-Qaida,
mostly Egyptians and Saudis, to escape through Iranian
territory. They traveled on "mountain bikes" through the
Kavir-e Lut desert and left from Mehrabad airport in Tehran. He
does not know what happened to them from there. Later, he said,
the MOIS gathered up a number of Al-Qaida and turned them over
to foreign governments. Now, he claimed, Al-Qaida leaders are
in Iran but are not in prison. They are, however, in one place
and under surveillance and cannot leave the country. The
Iranians reportedly told them they are better off staying in
Iran. He believes the government views them as leverage
(presumably as a bargaining chip with the US). He also claimed
that after the war, Iranians captured many Taliban and
eventually developed friendly relations with them. He asserted
that some Taliban were or are in Iran, including in Damavand and
in Tehran, under IRGC surveillance.

11.(S/NF) The former official also claimed that during the
summer war in Lebanon, "US jets" intercepted an Iranian plane to
Syria, suspecting it of carrying weapons. Although it was the
wrong plane, he claimed Iran stopped using planes to carry

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resupplies. Instead, they hide equipment and explosives in
cooking oil transported through the Iraqi province of Ilam, a
Shia region, to Lebanon.

Biographic note
--------------

12.(S/NF) The former official said he retired at the rank of
general five years ago from the police but stayed on working
another two years. He has a law degree and passed the police
academy, and worked most recently in the police's legal office.
He said he served in the police under the Shah and was arrested
for protesting against wrongful detentions. He then reportedly
transferred to the West European and US section of the
immigration office. He claims, and the Iranian-American agrees,
that he was the unnamed Iranian official who helped Betty
Mahmoudi leave Iran with her daughter in the mid 1980s, a story
made famous by the book and movie, "Not without My Daughter."
He says he directed them to a border crossing point where a
friend worked who let them pass and ensured the Kurds would not
trouble them. He also said that when news leaked of National
Security Advisor McFarlane and Oliver North's trip to Tehran in
1986, he and the rest of the immigration office were taken to
prison and beaten, accused of leaking the information. He said
that McFarlane was almost arrested. He said that after that
incident, most of the police officers who staffed the
immigration office were replaced by intelligence officers.

Comment
--------------

13.(S/NF) The information offered by the official is largely
single source, but the allegations of Iran's relations with
Al-Qaida and Taliban echo what is in the press. His views of
Rafsanjani's resurgence to Ahmadinejad's detriment echo those of
other Rafsanjani supporters or moderate reformers, who had
largely written off Rafsanjani a few months ago. Whether this
represents a real trend or wishful thinking is not yet clear.
The apparent contradiction in whether the current leadership
would welcome or fears conflict with the US is worth exploring
with other contacts, but we suspect that at the end of the day,
the majority of those in power prefer a continued state of
tension but not outright conflict with the US.
BURNS