Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07HONGKONG3103
2007-12-29 06:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Consulate Hong Kong
Cable title:  

NPC STANDING COMMITTEE AUTHORIZES HONG KONG TO

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR PHUM CH HK 
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VZCZCXRO1643
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHHK #3103/01 3630622
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 290622Z DEC 07
FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3751
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 003103 

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NOFORN
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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2032
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM CH HK
SUBJECT: NPC STANDING COMMITTEE AUTHORIZES HONG KONG TO
ELECT CHIEF EXECUTIVE IN 2017, LEGCO LATER

REF: A. HONG KONG 03008

B. HONG KONG 03033

C. HONG KONG 03070

Classified By: Acting E/P Section Chief Jeff Zaiser; Reason 1.4 (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 003103

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2032
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM CH HK
SUBJECT: NPC STANDING COMMITTEE AUTHORIZES HONG KONG TO
ELECT CHIEF EXECUTIVE IN 2017, LEGCO LATER

REF: A. HONG KONG 03008

B. HONG KONG 03033

C. HONG KONG 03070

Classified By: Acting E/P Section Chief Jeff Zaiser; Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary and Comment: On December 29, Commissioner Lu
Xinhua of the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong
briefed the Consul General, the U.K. Consul General, and a
representative from the Office of the European Commission on
the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC)
decision reached earlier that day regarding future
implementation of universal suffrage in Hong Kong. Reading
from a prepared text, Lu said the NPCSC had decided that in
2012 neither the Chief Executive (CE) nor the full
Legislative Council (Legco) shall be selected by universal
suffrage, and the half-and-half ratio between functional
constituency and geographic constituency members in Legco
shall remain unchanged, although other "appropriate
amendments" could be made to the election procedures for that
year. For 2017, the selection of the CE "may be implemented
by the method of universal suffrage," while election of the
entire Legco by universal suffrage would follow at an
unspecified later time. (Note: The next Legco election after
2017 will be 2020). Any future amendments to the Hong Kong
Basic Law regarding election of the CE and Legco must obtain
consent of the Hong Kong CE, approval by two-thirds of Legco,
and then be submitted for approval (CE) or for the record
(Legco ) to the NPCSC. If the methods for selecting the CE
and electing the Legco are not amended, then the existing
methods shall continue to apply. To select the CE by
universal suffrage, a "broadly representative nominating
committee" would "follow democratic procedures and nominate a
certain number of candidates" for CE, who then would be
elected through universal suffrage by all registered electors
of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR).



2. (C) After reading the prepared text, Lu noted the
importance and sensitivity of Hong Kong's "constitutional
development" in accordance with the principle of "One
Country, Two Systems" and the Basic Law. He said the NPCSC
decision constitutes a "major step taken to advance
democracy" and "attain the ultimate goal of universal
suffrage" for the Hong Kong people, who "now enjoy democratic
rights that they never had before." Lu concluded that this
was a sensitive issue and he hoped the consular
representatives would "be discreet so as not to send any
wrong message, or adversely affect our bilateral relations as
well as stability and constitutional development of Hong
Kong." Following Lu's presentation, the Consul General
thanked him for the timely and detailed briefing, and said we
would study the decision further before issuing any comment.
Shortly after the briefing, local media carried remarks by CE
Tsang that a "timetable for universal suffrage now has been

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set," with selection of the CE in 2017 and Legco in 2020
through universal suffrage. Tsang said he had instructed the
Commission on Strategic Development (CSD) to prepare options
for 2012 and beyond, which the Hong Kong Government (HKG)
would present to the public by the fourth quarter of 2008.
End Summary.


3. (C) Comment: Tsang's claim to have a timetable for
democratization may be premature, as the NPCSC decision does
not appear to set a date for implementation of universal
suffrage for the entire Legco. While all concerned parties
will need some time to study the decision, at first glance it
appears to offer a possibility for compromise on the way
forward. Whether the pan-democrats can accept somewhat less
than they wanted remains to be seen, as many of them are
certain to be disappointed that universal suffrage for 2012
has been ruled out, as has alteration of the current ratio of
functional to geographic Legco seats. It also is noteworthy
that CE Tsang expects the HKG to issue its proposals for
reform in 2012 at the end of 2008, after the September Legco
election. If the pan-democrats lose more than six of the 26
seats they currently hold, then they no longer will enjoy the
one-third blocking minority that halted CE Tsang's previous
reform effort in 2005. We should get an early indication of
the democrats' response to the NPCSC decision, as they have
scheduled a demonstration at Legco followed by a march to
Government House on Saturday afternoon, followed by a
"candle-light sit-in" outside Government House in the
evening. At 8:15 PM local time, NPC Standing Committee
Deputy Secretary General Qiao Xiaoyang is scheduled to meet
and brief all Legco members at Government House. End Comment.


4. (C) On December 29, Commissioner Lu Xinhua of the PRC

HONG KONG 00003103 002 OF 003


Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong called in the Consul
General, the U.K. Consul General, and a representative from
the Office of the European Commission for a briefing on the
decision by the NPCSC regarding the method for selection of
the Hong Kong Chief Executive and Legco. (Note: According to
Embassy Beijing, simultaneously a similar briefing was
convened by the MOFA in Beijing.) Lu said the NPCSC had
adopted the decision earlier that morning. The NPCSC was
responding to a December 12 request for a determination from
Hong Kong CE Donald Tsang (ref a).


5. (C) Reading from a prepared statement (text has been
transmitted via email to EAP/CM),Lu said the NPCSC had
issued a four-point decision. First, in 2012, the CE shall
not be selected by universal suffrage, and the election of
Legco "shall not be implemented by the method of electing all
the members by universal suffrage." Furthermore, the
half-and-half ratio between functional constituency and
geographic constituency members in Legco shall remain
unchanged, as will the procedures for voting on bills and
motions in Legco. Subject to these restrictions,
"appropriate amendments conforming to the principle of
gradual and orderly progress may be made" to the methods for
selecting the CE and Legco in 2012.


6. (C) Second, Lu said that prior to the future selection of
the CE by universal suffrage, the CE must report to the NPCSC
regarding amendment of the method for selecting the CE, in
accordance with the relevant provisions of the Hong Kong
Basic Law and the previous NPCSC interpretation of the Basic
Law. The NPCSC then would issue a determination. The HKG
would prepare and submit bills to amend the CE selection
method to Legco for approval by at least two-thirds of its
members, which with the "consent" of the CE would then be
reported to the NPCSC for approval. Third, the CE also must
report to the NPCSC regarding amendment of the methods for
forming Legco and for Legco voting on bills and motions,
again in accordance with the Basic Law and the previous NPCSC
interpretation. The NPCSC then would issue another
determination. The HKG would introduce bills to amend the
election method and the Legco procedures, which would require
approval by two-thirds of Legco members and the consent of
the CE before being reported to the NPCSC "for the record."
Fourth, if the methods for selecting the CE, electing the
Legco, or Legco procedures are not amended, then the existing
methods would continue to apply. Finally, the NPCSC also
said that to select the CE by universal suffrage, a "broadly
representative nominating committee shall be formed" and it
"shall follow democratic procedures and nominate a certain
number of candidates for the office of the CE, who is to be
elected through universal suffrage by all registered electors
of the HKSAR, and to be appointed by the Central People's
Government."


7. (C) After reading the prepared text, Lu added the
following three points. First, the "constitutional
development" of Hong Kong was an "important issue that should
be handled with great care." The NPCSC decision conforms to
the principle of "One Country, Two Systems" and the Basic
Law, takes full account of the actual situation in Hong Kong
and the interests of various sectors in Hong Kong, and "gives
expression to the principle of gradual and orderly progress."
It constitutes a "major step taken to advance democracy" and
"attain the ultimate goal of universal suffrage." Second, it
is the "consistent position and firm objective of the Chinese
Government to support the HKSAR in developing a democratic
system suitable to local conditions, in a gradual and orderly
manner and in accordance with the Basic Law." Furthermore,
the Hong Kong people "now enjoy democratic rights that they
never had before." Third, "ensuring the long-term prosperity
and stability of Hong Kong serves the interests of both China
and foreign investors in Hong Kong. We recognize that (the
U.S., U.K. and E.U.) have business and investment interests
in Hong Kong, and it is in the spirit of friendship that I
have given you this briefing." Finally, Lu noted that this
was a "sensitive issue" and he hoped that the consular
representatives would "be discreet so as not to send any
wrong message, or adversely affect our bilateral relations as
well as stability and constitutional development of Hong
Kong."


8. (C) Following Lu's presentation, the U.S. and British
Consuls General both expressed appreciation for the detailed
briefing, which they said they would study further before
issuing any comment. The Consul General also thanked Lu for
taking the initiative to brief us in such a timely manner.


HONG KONG 00003103 003 OF 003



9. (SBU) Shortly after the briefing, local media carried
remarks by CE Tsang that a "timetable for universal suffrage
now has been set." He said that under the NPCSC decision,
Hong Kong would select the CE in 2017 and Legco in 2020
through universal suffrage. Tsang urged the Hong Kong people
to apply "fresh thinking" to secure implementation of
universal suffrage for the CE first, in 2017, to be followed
by Legco in 2020. Tsang spoke highly of the NPCSC decision,
which he characterized as "the most important step for Hong
Kong's constitutional development." He said he had
instructed the HKG's Commission on Strategic Development
(CSD) to form a "task group" as soon as possible to study the
relevant issues, including possible changes to the election
methods for the CE and Legco in 2012. The task group would
meet shortly after lunar new year (February) and complete its
work by mid-2008. By the fourth quarter of 2008, Tsang said
the HKG would "formulate options" for 2012 and then consult
with the public.
Cunningham