HONG KONG DECEMBER 2 BY-ELECTION: VOTER TURNOUT IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002934

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2032
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM SOCI CH HK
SUBJECT: HONG KONG DECEMBER 2 BY-ELECTION: VOTER TURNOUT IS
KEY

REF: A. HONG KONG 02751

B. HONG KONG 02855

Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: On December 2, Hong Kong will hold a
by-election to fill the Legislative Council (Legco) seat
vacated by the death of Democratic Alliance for the
Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) leader Ma Lik last
August. Only two of the eight contestants - pro-democracy
leader Anson Chan and pro-Beijing candidate Regina Ip - have
any chance of winning. The campaign is widely viewed as a
referendum on the future of democracy in Hong Kong. Chan
continues to hold a low double-digit lead in the opinion
polls, but her chances of success hinge on a high turnout
rate by the pan-democrats. According to one member of her
campaign team, a voter participation rate of less than 45
percent would be dangerous for Chan, as the
"pro-establishment" parties may be able to mobilize up to 90
percent of their supporters. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Winning this election is crucial for the
pan-democrats, and to do so they need to motivate their
supporters to go out and vote. In the November 18 district
council election, they suffered an embarrassing rout that
exposed their strategic and organizational shortcomings;
former Democratic Party (DP) chairman Lee Wing-tat's
subsequent resignation as chief campaign strategist
apparently was accepted without argument. That election also
demonstrated the DAB's superior groundwork and ability to
mobilize supporters on election day; it and Ip's other allies
certainly will attempt to duplicate that effort on December

2. For the Legco by-election, however, the issues of chief
concern may play less to the DAB's strength - local
bread-and-butter issues - and more to the broader questions
of political reform, democratization and relations with
Beijing. As those issues form the basis of the
pan-democrats' policy platform, both now and for 2008, it
will be vital for them to demonstrate that their supporters
are both numerous and motivated on election day. For the
pro-Beijing parties as well as for Ip personally, winning
this time would be nice, but both would accept a reasonably
close defeat as a moral victory that would enable them to
return undamaged for the Legco general election next
September. End Comment.

Sunday By-Election
--------------


3. (SBU) On Sunday, December 9, the 600,000 registered voters
on Hong Kong Island will select a replacement to serve the
remaining eight months of the term of former legislator and
DAB Party Chairman Ma Lik, who died August 8. Although eight
candidates are listed on the ballot, only two - former Hong
Kong Government Chief Secretary Anson Chan and former Hong
Kong Government Secretary for Security Regina Ip - are likely
to draw significant support. Chan is supported by the
pan-democrats, Ip by both the pro-Beijing DAB and the
pro-business Liberal Party. Since Chan and Ip entered the
race in September, the campaign has been widely viewed as a
referendum on the future of democracy in Hong Kong, and the
debate has become increasingly acerbic (ref a). The polls
will close at 10:30 pm, and results should be available by
2:00 am Monday morning local time.

District Council Warm-Up
--------------


4. (SBU) While some observers viewed the November 18 district
council election (ref b) as both a warm-up and a test of the
relative strengths of the two competing camps, the geographic
scale (all of Hong Kong) and the relevant issues (local
facilities and constituent services, welfare benefits,
education, and environment) of that election were
fundamentally different from the Legco contest. The DAB used
its vastly superior local organization to mobilize its
supporters and rout the pan-democrats. That experience, with
the subsequent warnings from democratic leaders of dire
consequences for democracy if Ip were to defeat Chan, should
have alerted the democrats to the need to get their voters to
the polls.

Polls Favor Chan, But ...
--------------


5. (SBU) Chan has led Ip since late September by 10-15
percentage points, although the "undecided" rate has remained

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high. This lead has not diminished: according to a Lingnan
University Public Governance Programme poll conducted
November 27, Chan's support rate had increased to 39.9
percent versus 22.6 per cent for Ip. None of the other six
candidates received more than one percent. Perhaps more
importantly, about 82 percent of those surveyed said they
intended to vote on election day, leading the pollster to
estimate that more than 50 percent of the voters actually
would cast ballots on Sunday.


6. (C) Civic Party Secretary General and Chan supporter
Professor Joseph Cheng confirmed to us November 30 that the
primary concern for the pan-democrats was voter turnout.
Historically in Hong Kong, legislative by-elections have
drawn just 33-38 percent of the voters, but Cheng said
anything less than 45 percent would be dangerous for Chan.
He said the "pro-establishment" parties could mobilize up to
90 percent of their supporters; if the democrats got 60
percent of their people to the polls they would win, and
45-60 percent would give them a strong chance.


7. (SBU) In the last week of the campaign, both sides have
attempted to energize their supporters and build their
images. On November 25, a second televised debate drew testy
exchanges between the contestants and scuffles among their
supporters. Ip called Chan a "radical," while Chan accused
Ip of being a "fake democrat." Since then, DP legislator and
Chan campaign team member Sin Chung-kai distributed an
e-newsletter warning voters not to be "fooled" by polls
showing Chan with a double-digit lead over Ip. Similarly,
another Chan team member, former Independent Commission
Against Corruption (ICAC) chair Lily Yam, sent a personal
e-mail to former civil servants urging them to vote for Chan.
On November 28, Ip staged a campaign rally in Chater Garden,
adjacent to the Legco building, where she was joined by DAB
leaders Tam Yiu-chung and Jasper Tsang Yok-sing, Liberal
Party legislators Selina Chow and Miriam Lau, executive
councilor and Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) president
Cheng Yiu-tong, and Ocean Park chairman Allan Zeman. The
actual election day in Hong Kong is expected to be quiet,
with no last-minute rallies and no exit polls released until
after the polls close.

Cunningham