HONG KONG BY-ELECTION: ANSON CHAN TOUGHENS STANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002751

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2032
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI CH HK
SUBJECT: HONG KONG BY-ELECTION: ANSON CHAN TOUGHENS STANCE
ON DEMOCRACY

REF: A. HONG KONG 02359

B. HONG KONG 02465

C. HONG KONG 02587

Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Nine candidates have registered to contest
the December 2 Legislative Council (Legco) by-election to
fill the seat vacated by the death of Ma Lik. The clear
front-runners remain former senior civil servants Anson Chan
of the pan-democratic camp and her pro-Beijing opponent
Regina Ip; none of the other candidates is expected to impact
the race significantly. In her campaign platform released
October 29, Chan said her primary goal was to push for full
universal suffrage for both the Chief Executive (CE) and
Legco in 2012. Chan also said she would improve dialogue
between the Hong Kong Government (HKG) and Beijing, push for
resolution of the June 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, and
address various socio-economic livelihood issues of concern
to working class and elderly voters. Ip, who unveiled her
platform October 23, also claims to favor universal suffrage
in 2012, but says 2016-17 would be acceptable "fallback
options" if consensus could not be reached by 2012. The
pan-democrats have criticized Ip's much more complex formula
for electoral reform as raising the bar for pro-democracy
candidates to contest the elections. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: By toughening her position on universal
suffrage, adding the need to resolve the June 1989 crackdown,
and broadening her platform's coverage of livelihood issues,
Chan is seeking to sharpen the distinctions between herself
and Ip. Even more than before, she hopes to turn the
by-election into a referendum on universal suffrage and -
through inclusion of the Tiananmen issue - on Hong Kong's
uniqueness and autonomy. This strategic adjustment probably
reflects the common perception that the race is growing
closer. Democratic Party (DP) legislator Martin Lee, DP
Chairman Albert Ho, and Frontier legislator Emily Lau all
told the Consul General on November 1 that they still
believed Chan would win, but the race is becoming tougher.
Ho and Lau also observed that Ip was running a professional,
well-planned campaign, while the pan-democrats were feeling
pressured by the pro-government camp's organizational and
financial advantages, especially at a time when there was no
galvanizing political issue to bring out the voters. End
Comment.

Nine Candidates Join the Race
--------------


3. (SBU) In addition to Anson Chan and Regina Ip, seven
candidates have registered for the December 2 Legco
by-election to fill the seat vacated by the death of
pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and
Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) chairman Ma Lik (refs a, b).
(Note: Candidates are required to obtain nominations from 100
voters and pay a deposit of HKD 50,000 (USD 6,500),
refundable if they win three percent of the vote. End note.)
Hong Kong media have speculated that some of the
late-joining, lesser-known candidates might have been fielded
by the pro-government camp to dilute the Chan vote, but they
more likely are simply trying to promote themselves and
attract attention for their issues and/or future campaigns.
None of the seven - with the possible exception of heritage
activist Ho Loy - is expected to have any significant impact
on the race. Political scientist Ma Ngok estimated that the
seven "fringe" candidates at most would win a total of ten
percent of the votes cast.

Chan: Universal Suffrage in 2012
--------------


4. (SBU) In her campaign platform released October 29, Chan
said her primary goal was to push for full universal suffrage
for both the CE and Legco in 2012 "because this is what will
give us good governance." She publicly withdrew her previous
position that a delay to 2016 might be acceptable if there
was a compelling reason to wait, as no such reasons had been
offered by anyone. Chan said any candidate able to gain
nomination by ten percent of the 800-member Election
Committee should be able to stand for CE in a one person, one
vote election. For Legco, she proposed that the thirty
functional constituency seats should be replaced by directly
elected geographic constituencies, also in 2012. Noting that
her advocacy of democracy was "in line" with PRC President Hu
Jintao's policy of "people-based governance," Chan also said
she would improve dialogue between the HKG and Beijing. More

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controversially, she called for "our nation to resolve" the
"major historical issue" of the June 1989 Tiananmen Square
crackdown.


5. (SBU) Beyond political issues, Chan sought to expand her
platform to include more socio-economic livelihood issues of
concern to working class and elderly voters. She supports
introduction of a minimum wage for low-income occupations and
increased allowances and benefits for elderly people. Chan
also urged tighter controls on air pollution, expanded
efforts for conservation, and expansion of an existing and
popular voucher scheme for kindergarten students.

Ip: Raise the Bar for Democratic Candidates
--------------


6. (SBU) Ip, who unveiled her platform October 23, also
claims to favor universal suffrage in 2012, but says 2016-17
would be acceptable "fallback options" if consensus could not
be reached by 2012. Under Ip's much more complex formula for
electoral reform, the existing 800-member CE Election
Committee would be replaced with a 1,800-member, four-sector
body. To contest the election, a CE candidate would need
nominations from at least ten percent of each of four
sectors: business and commercial (400 members); professional
(400); labor, social services, and religion (400); and Legco,
district councils, and local National People's Congress (NPC)
and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
(CPPCC) delegates (600). Defending the plan, Ip said CE
candidates should have to work hard to win "balanced
representation" from each sector. Aside from electoral
reform, Ip said she supported the ten major infrastructure
projects proposed by CE Donald Tsang in his annual policy
address (ref c) as a way to maintain solid economic growth.
She also included various livelihood issues, such as
education reform and reduction of environmental pollution, in
her platform.

Chan vs. Ip
--------------


7. (SBU) Many of the pan-democrat leaders have spoken
publicly in favor of Chan's revised campaign platform,
although some of the more liberal members of the camp said
she could have gone further on issues such as the minimum
wage. At an October 28 rally, leaders of the 170,000-member
Confederation of Trade Unions and the 80,000-member
Professional Teachers' Union publicly appealed to their
members to support Chan. Chan has described Ip as a "fake
democrat" who would bring "gradual and orderly regress" to
political reform. She said Ip's proposal for implementation
of universal suffrage would "set even more hurdles" for
universal suffrage that were "more onerous than those laid
down in the Basic Law." Chan said there was no reason to
accept any "filtering mechanism" that would prevent
"candidates whom the public may wish to see standing for
election." To illustrate Chan's point, the pan-democrats
note that Civic Party legislator Alan Leong -- who won 132
nominations and was able to contest the March 2007
election against incumbent CE Tsang - did not win a single
nomination from the business sector. Had Ip's system been in
place, Leong could not have joined the CE race. Similarly,
thus far Chan has not won a public endorsement from any major
business leader.


8. (SBU) Ip's allies in the pro-Beijing DAB repeatedly have
attempted to blur the distinctions between Ip and Chan, at
least in public. They claim there are no big differences
between the platforms of the two contestants. Ip herself,
however, has described Chan's platform as full of "ideals and
visions," while claiming that her own positions were more
realistic and feasible.
Cunningham