MARTIN LEE TO VISIT WASHINGTON AS HONG KONG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002596

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NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2032
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI CH HK
SUBJECT: MARTIN LEE TO VISIT WASHINGTON AS HONG KONG
POLITICS HEAT UP

REF: A. BEIJING 06399

B. HONG KONG 02251

C. HONG KONG 02587

D. HONG KONG 02333

E. HONG KONG 02067

F. HONG KONG 02202

G. HONG KONG 02359

H. HONG KONG 02465

Classified By: Consul General James Cunningham; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Democratic Party founder and legislator
Martin Lee will visit Washington October 18-19 for
discussions at State and the NSC (requested) on the political
state of play in Hong Kong. His visit comes during an
unusually busy Hong Kong political season, which this year
includes the Chief Executive's (CE) annual policy address,
conclusion of the public comment period for the Hong Kong
Government's (HKG) "Green Paper" on constitutional reform,
the November 18 district council elections, and a
hotly-contested by-election for a Legislative Council (Legco)
seat on December 2. The by-election is drawing intensive
media and public attention, as two high-profile retired civil
servants - former Chief Secretary Anson Chan and former
Secretary for Security Regina Ip - entered the contest on

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behalf of the pro-democracy and pro-government camps,
respectively. After a large initial advantage for Chan, the
public opinion polls now indicate a close contest. The
central government reportedly has grown very concerned about
the election, which it is watching closely to see if Chan
becomes the unifying force in and outside of Legco that the
pan-democrats hitherto have lacked. Also, Beijing fears
Chan, if elected to Legco, then might decide to run for CE in

2012. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Martin Lee is looking for international
support for Hong Kong's democratic movement, hoping that the
movement will be energized by an Anson Chan campaign and
victory in December. Beijing clearly is watching the Legco
by-election, including possible U.S. "interference," very
closely, and will accord Lee's travel to Washington a similar
level of attention (ref a). A by-election victory for Chan,
until recently almost taken for granted, is not assured. She
will be opposed by many establishment elements, and we assume
Beijing will pull out all the stops behind the scenes,
including portraying her as an instrument of the Americans,
to defeat her. Lee was one of the first to persuade Chan to
run in the belief that she -- and the democratic forces --
would gain new energy and credibility. That indeed is likely
to be the result if she wins, but a defeat would end her
political career and influence and deal the pan-democrats a
serious blow.


3. (C) Comment, continued: Ip, with the support of Beijing
and Hong Kong's establishment parties, is attempting to
change the nature of the debate over democracy by raising the
issue of how to best achieve universal suffrage. She is
painting herself as a genuine advocate for democracy, calling
for universal suffrage in the CE election in 2012 -- if
Beijing agrees -- or by 2017, at the latest. Ip is trying to
shift the debate from "when will Hong Kong have democracy" to
"who can best advocate for democracy without confrontation
with Beijing." She argues that only those who can talk to
Beijing and have its trust can achieve this goal for the Hong
Kong people, and she and the pro-Beijing forces are
portraying Chan and the pan-democrats as confrontational
oppositionists with whom Beijing cannot deal. The
pan-democrats respond that accepting Ip's argument amounts to
ceding the choice of candidate to Beijing. If defeated, Ip
-- who began as the underdog -- will live to fight again for
a Legco seat in next year's elections. End Comment.

Martin Lee Travel to U.S. and Europe
--------------


4. (C) Democratic Party (DP) founder and legislator Martin
Lee, accompanied by DP Vice Chairman and Legislative Council
(Legco) member Sin Chung Kai and one or two others, will
visit Washington October 18-19 for meetings at State and the
NSC, among others requested. Lee and his colleagues intend
to brief their USG contacts on the political state of play in
Hong Kong, including the "Green Paper" process for electoral
reform (ref b),the Chief Executive's October 10 policy
address (ref c),the upcoming November 18 district council
election, and the December 2 Legco by-election (ref d). They

HONG KONG 00002596 002 OF 002


will offer their views on the longer-term prospects for
political reform and implementation of universal suffrage in
Hong Kong. Lee and his group also plan to travel to London,
Brussels, and possibly Canada for meetings with senior
foreign affairs officials. Their overall purpose on this
trip is to raise awareness and solicit support from
sympathetic overseas contacts. The central government in
Beijing, which strongly distrusts Lee and views with
suspicion his numerous close friendships abroad, already has
registered its discontent over his expected access to
high-level USG officials. Also, some of Hong Kong's
pro-Beijing media recently have accused the U.S. and several
other western consulates in Hong Kong of instigating Anson
Chan's entry into the Legco by-election race; any publicity
accorded to Lee's meetings in Washington, London, and other
capitals undoubtedly will generate further condemnation.

Politics Takes Center Stage
--------------


5. (SBU) This year's political season in Hong Kong began July
11, when the HKG released the "Green Paper" for a three-month
period of public review and comment. On August 8, DAB
Chairman and Legco member Ma Lik died and the HKG scheduled a
by-election for December 2 to fill his seat (refs e, f). Two
weeks before the by-election, Hong Kong will hold district
council elections, which many view as an important training
ground for budding politicians and for building momentum for
both the December 2 by-election and the September 2008 Legco
general election. Some members of the pro-democracy camp
also view the district council contests as a virtual
referendum on universal suffrage.


6. (SBU) The December 2 Legco by-election contest between
Anson Chan, representing the pan-democratic camp, and Regina
Ip, who is backed by various pro-government and pro-business
groups, attracts intense daily media coverage. Chan's entry
into the race (ref g) greatly boosted the hopes of the
democrats to grab this seat from the pro-government side.
Since Ip formally declared her candidacy, with high-level
endorsements from the Liberal Party, the DAB, and the
business community, however, the polls have narrowed
significantly: what was thought to be a sixty-forty edge for
Chan now appears to be an even contest. Chan left a bad
impression on some pan-democrats when she left an October 7
rally after just twenty minutes, rather than continue on a
march to the government offices. Earlier invited by Chan to
join that rally to demonstrate her pro-democracy credentials,
Ip had declined, saying "there are many ways one can express
support for democracy."


7. (C) Shiu Sin-por is a long-time pro-Beijing consulate
contact who recently returned from Beijing's Qinghua
University to accept an appointment as a member of the HKG's
Central Policy Unit. A local delegate to the Chinese
People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC),Shiu
worked on the Basic Law Consultative Committee in the 1980s
and the Preparatory Committee for Hong Kong's reversion in
the 1990s. He confirmed to us on October 5 that the central
government had grown very concerned about the by-election
since Chan entered the race, which they were watching closely
(ref h). Shiu said Beijing feared Chan would become the
unifying and coordinating force in and outside of Legco that
the pan-democrats hitherto have lacked. Furthermore, he said
Beijing feared Chan would want to run for CE in 2012.

Marut