HONG KONG'S GREEN PAPER: PATH TO DEMOCRACY OR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 002170

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NOFORN
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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2032
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI CH HK
SUBJECT: HONG KONG'S GREEN PAPER: PATH TO DEMOCRACY OR
STALLING TACTIC?

REF: HONG KONG 01832

Classified By: Acting E/P Section Chief Craig Reilly; Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Hong Kong Government (HKG) released its
"Green Paper" listing various options for electoral reform on
July 11, hoping it would spark a three-month public debate
and build consensus for implementation of universal suffrage
for future Chief Executive (CE) and Legislative Council
(Legco) elections. The public response since the release has
been muted and several senior HKG officials recently have
suggested that the Green Paper process might be more
protracted, although they denied they were stalling.
Pro-Beijing legislator Jasper Tsang told us that after the
public consultation period, the HKG would report to the
central government and await a decision by the National
People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) on the
"parameters" for electoral reform. Tsang believes that once
the central government has "laid its cards on the table," it
will become easier for Hong Kong's concerned parties to reach
a consensus. The pan-democrats fear the HKG may be using the
Green Paper process to manipulate public opinion and delay
submission of a reform proposal until the new Legco takes
office in September 2008, or even to seek an interpretation
of the Basic Law by the NPCSC to rule out universal suffrage
in 2012. Political commentator Allen Lee, who has close ties
to both Beijing and the pan-democrats, has advised democratic
leaders to be pragmatic and support universal suffrage for
the CE in 2017, as long as a mutually acceptable nominating
mechanism can be devised. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Jasper Tsang's version of the way forward
for the Green Paper process, with Beijing signing off on the
general outline before the HKG issues its proposal, strikes
us as accurate. Another pro-Beijing contact, Hong Kong Basic
Law Committee Vice Chair and former Secretary for Justice
Elsie Leung, confirmed the gist of Tsang's comments, noting
that the earliest possible time for reaching a consensus
would be in the spring of 2008. Other commentators believe
the schedule could slip even further due to Beijing's desire
to avoid any political controversy before or during the 2008
Olympic Games. Also, with Legco elections scheduled for
September 2008, the HKG and the central government might wish
to defer formal consideration of a reform package until a
new, possibly more favorable (less pro-democracy) Legco takes
office. If the HKG's allies, especially the Democratic
Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB),
fare well in the November 2007 District Council elections --
viewed by many as a preview of the September 2008 Legco
election -- then the HKG may be further emboldened to slow
the constitutional reform process. Jasper Tsang's views on
public attitudes also seem accurate: an August 7 Chinese
University of Hong Kong survey found that 53 percent of the
public prefer universal suffrage for the CE in 2012, but
nearly 70 percent would accept 2017 if stipulated by Beijing.
End Comment.


3. (SBU) After eighteen months of deliberation by the
government-appointed Commission for Strategic Development,
the HKG released its "Green Paper" listing various options
for constitutional (electoral) reform on July 11 (ref). The
release was intended to spark a three-month consultation
period through which the government hoped to build a broad
consensus on the time frame and road map for implementation
of universal suffrage for future Chief Executive and Legco
elections. The public response since the release has been
muted, which the pan-democrats attribute to the complicated
and confusing presentation of the Green Paper as well as its
release during the slow summer holiday period, when Legco is
not in session.

HKG: No Timetable
--------------


4. (SBU) On August 15, Chief Secretary Henry Tang said the
HKG should not be constrained by any timetable for submission
of its report on constitutional reform to Beijing after the
three-month Green Paper consultation period. Tang said the
report schedule would depend on the volume of views received:
"We need sufficient time to integrate the views if we are to
reflect them all to Beijing faithfully." He denied that the
HKG was procrastinating over the report, which Chief
Executive Donald Tsang previously had said would be finished
by the end of 2007.


5. (SBU) On August 16, Secretary for Constitutional and
Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, the HKG's point man for

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electoral reform, urged Hong Kong's political parties to
"grasp the opportunity to reach a consensus" on attaining
universal suffrage. He denied claims that the HKG was
stalling or avoiding the issues of "democratic procedures" as
specified in the Basic Law. Lam also listed four "principles
for constitutional development" that any reform plan would
have to satisfy: meeting the needs of different sectors of
society, facilitating capitalist economic development,
gradual and orderly progress toward universal suffrage, and
consideration of the "actual situation' in Hong Kong. Lam
described the various options and timetables under
consideration, and said the HKG would closely monitor public
support for the various proposals. He emphasized that the
HKG had not taken yet "taken a view" on the various issues
involved. At the same event, several pro-Beijing trade union
representatives opined that the Hong Kong public was "not yet
mature" enough for universal suffrage, which they said should
not be implemented any sooner than 2017.

Pro-Beijing View
--------------


6. (C) Legislator, Executive Councilor, and former DAB
Chairman Jasper Tsang, who maintains close ties with the
central government in Beijing, told us on August 17 that the
public perception that the HKG will issue its electoral
reform proposal in late October or November is somewhat
inaccurate. In essence, said Tsang, there will be "a few
more steps." Citing both the recent comments by Chief
Secretary Tang and the Green Paper itself, Tsang said the HKG

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would report the results of the Green Paper consultations to
the central government. It then would await a decision by
the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) on
whether changes should be made to Hong Kong's electoral
system, and if so what should be the "parameters" for those
changes. Tsang said the most likely scenario would be that
the NPCSC would specify the earliest acceptable dates for
universal suffrage for the Hong Kong Chief Executive and
Legislative Council elections. Next, the HKG would hold
another round of internal and possibly public consultations,
then finalize a reform proposal for submission to Legco.
Tsang believes that once the central government has "laid its

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cards on the table," it will become easier for Hong Kong's
concerned parties to reach a consensus. He believes -- and
is supported by recent public opinion polls -- that the Hong
Kong public is pragmatic: if, for example, Beijing decides
that 2012 is too early for universal suffrage, then the
people of Hong Kong will accept that decision and "move on"
to 2017.

Democrats Suspicious
--------------


7. (C) Already suspicious, the pan-democrats became more
troubled after hearing the statements by Tang and Lam. The
fear the HKG may be using the Green Paper process to
manipulate public opinion and delay submission of a reform
proposal until the new Legco takes office in September 2008.
Civic Party legislator and March 2007 Chief Executive
candidate Alan Leong told the press on August 13 that the
green paper "only serves to enable the government to
manipulate the universal suffrage model it intends to push
forward eventually." Another pan-democratic Legco member,
Lee Cheuk-yan of the Confederation of Trade Unions, told us
that he and some of his colleagues fear that the HKG and the
central government might use the Green Paper process to
request an interpretation of the Basic Law by the NPCSC to
rule out universal suffrage in 2012. Lee said the
interpretation also could establish "unwelcome conditions,"
such as a screening process for Chief Executive candidates.
Lee was emphatic that the pan-democrats did not want the
central government to intervene.

Mediator?
--------------


8. (C) On August 16, political commentator and Liberal Party
founder Allen Lee, who somewhat uniquely maintains close ties
with both Beijing and the pan-democrats, told us that
"nothing will come of the Green Paper." He noted that Chief
Executive Tsang had promised during the election campaign to
produce a plan by the end of 2007, but now there was no
chance that would happen. Lee believes that the central
government in Beijing does not want to make a decision that
soon, which he said forced Tsang to be "sort of wishy-washy."


9. (C) Despite his pessimism, Lee said he was very hopeful

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that something could happen by 2017. He said both the DAB
and the influential Hong Kong Women's Group publicly
supported universal suffrage for the CE in 2017, as long as a
mutually acceptable nominating mechanism could be devised.
On the democratic side, Lee said he had advised Democratic
Party leader Martin Lee that the most important thing was to
"start the process of one man, one vote." He said the
democrats should fight to have four CE candidates, not two,
on the ballot; with that many, they should be able to have at
least one of their own. Allen Lee said Martin told him he
would consider the idea.
Cunningham