Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07HONGKONG1881
2007-07-17 23:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Consulate Hong Kong
Cable title:  

HONG KONG UNIVERSITY'S GUAN YI ON RECENT TRENDS IN

Tags:  ECON TBIO SENV EAGR AMED KFLU HK CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5395
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHHK #1881/01 1982350
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 172350Z JUL 07
FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2318
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 1101
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 001881 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM AND EAP/EP TWANG
STATE FOR G/AIAG JLANGE, HFOSTER, RFENDRICK
STATE FOR M/MED AND M/MEDEX PETER WOOD
STATE FOR INR/EAP
HHS FOR OGHA - STEIGER, BHAT
BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USDA FOR DU/US LAMBERT
BEIJING FOR DSELIGSOHN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2032
TAGS: ECON TBIO SENV EAGR AMED KFLU HK CH
SUBJECT: HONG KONG UNIVERSITY'S GUAN YI ON RECENT TRENDS IN
AVIAN FLU


Classified By: E/P Chief Laurent Charbonnet. Reasons: 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 001881

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM AND EAP/EP TWANG
STATE FOR G/AIAG JLANGE, HFOSTER, RFENDRICK
STATE FOR M/MED AND M/MEDEX PETER WOOD
STATE FOR INR/EAP
HHS FOR OGHA - STEIGER, BHAT
BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USDA FOR DU/US LAMBERT
BEIJING FOR DSELIGSOHN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2032
TAGS: ECON TBIO SENV EAGR AMED KFLU HK CH
SUBJECT: HONG KONG UNIVERSITY'S GUAN YI ON RECENT TRENDS IN
AVIAN FLU


Classified By: E/P Chief Laurent Charbonnet. Reasons: 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: AmConGen Economic Officer and Regional
Medical Officer met with Guan Yi, Director of the State Key
Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at Hong Kong
University (HKU),and Gavin Smith, Assistant Professor of
Microbiology at HKU, to discuss general trends in avian
influenza in 2007. Guan criticized current international
response toward H5N1 and other strains of the virus, noting
that many governments and even infectious disease experts
have either become complacent or have allowed their
priorities to be clouded by politics. He expressed concern
that little data on the disease exists for many parts of
Asia, including Northern China, Indonesia, Bangladesh and
Burma. He discussed his November 2006 article in Proceedings
of the National Academy of Science (PNAS),noting that it
caused a backlash from PRC officials and others in the
international health community who questioned his findings.
Guan stated that there is no chance to eradicate the virus
and predicted it will remain a threat for at least another
5-10 years. He also expressed concern over the H2 virus,
noting that human-to-human transmission of H2 is possible,
but that no one is investigating it. He worries that H2 or a
not-yet identified virus could actually cause a pandemic as
H5N1 draws our attention away from other infectious diseases.
END SUMMARY.

--------------
AI Preparedness Plans
--------------


2. (SBU) Guan Yi said he was pessimistic about the
international response toward H5N1 and other strains of the

avian influenza virus. He said governments and international
bodies have vastly different priorities, which are often
clouded by politics. He noted pandemic preparedness is
important, but worried that the lack of an outbreak thus far
has already caused some countries and experts to become
complacent. He noted that presenters at a recent AI
conference in Toronto were "too self-congratulatory on our
success" in avoiding a human outbreak. He said that the
chance of eradicating the virus is "nil" and that little is
actually known about the virus, its ability to be transmitted
or its ability to regenerate and adapt. It remains unclear
whether the anti-virals that have been stockpiled around the
world will be effective because governments have yet to test
their effectiveness. Guan expressed a willingness to start
this research if funding were available.


3. (C) Guan believes that most pandemic preparations are
adequate, but might not be able to respond to a
quickly-spreading virus. He noted that there already are
long delays in identifying strains of the virus and in
developing and then producing effective vaccines. This delay
could be particularly problematic for countries and societies
that lack medicine or vaccine production facilities,
including Hong Kong. He rated the U.S. as having good
preparation plans and global response capabilities, but fears
the sustainability of those plans as the USG could focus its
attention elsewhere.

--------------
International Collaboration
--------------


4. (SBU) Guan stated that he and others have collected fairly
good data on Southern China, which allows academic
researchers to gain a better understanding of the disease and
isolation rates in that region. However, transparency in
mainland China is still lacking. He expressed specific
concern that we have no information on disease rates for
Northern China. Smith added that the lack of data on disease
trends in Indonesia, Bangladesh and Burma is also troubling.
He emphasized that these countries do not have basic
surveillance capabilities or the knowledge base to monitor
the disease and investigate outbreaks. The lack of
transparency, effective communication, and surveillance
capabilities in many parts of Asia has the potential to
complicate regional response efforts.

HONG KONG 00001881 002 OF 002



--------------
PNAS Article and Isolation Rates
--------------


5. (SBU) Guan said his November 2006 PNAS article caused him
and his collaborators problems with Chinese authorities.
Three ministries in China immediately contested the findings.
The WHO responded to China,s protests by sending an
independent expert group to check his research. The WHO,s
reaction angered Guan because, he claimed, the WHO appeared
to cave to Chinese political posturing and did not trust his
peer-reviewed scientific research. As a follow-up to the
PNAS article, EconOff asked if Guan had any updated
information on current isolation rates. Guan responded that
they varied from province to province, but have generally
remained the same with no significant changes over the past
12 months. He said &we cannot say the virus is effectively
contained and we cannot say that there will be an outbreak
tomorrow.8 However, given the political problems the
article caused, he does not have plans to publish or share
the data unless he uncovers new trends or abnormalities. If
so, he will report it directly to the WHO.

--------------
Views of Hong Kong Government Response
--------------


6. (C) Guan also expressed concern over the Hong Kong
government's (HKG) reaction to his research. Guan accused
HKG officials of being afraid of upsetting China. He
believes that political concerns over China's potential
reaction to published data on the prevalence of the virus in
the PRC is causing the HKG to make decisions that are not
based in science. He claimed that the HKG has placed
restrictions on discussing the extent of the disease,
although he declined to describe those restrictions. He said
the HKG does not provide adequate funding to Hong Kong
institutions to study the disease; 90% of his research
funds, for example, come from abroad. Smith agreed with Guan
that the HKG is overly concerned about embarrassing China.
--------------
Future Issues
--------------


7. (SBU) Guan discussed new research. They recently
discovered different subtypes of low-pathogenic strains of
the virus within a single sample of 100 birds, proving that
multiple subtypes can exist within one animal population. He
stated this increased the chances for the virus to adapt and
regenerate.


8. (SBU) Guan concluded the meeting by predicting that the
H5N1 virus will last another five to ten years. However, he
expressed concern that the world's attention is too focused
on H5N1 and, therefore, no one is investigating H2, which can
be transmitted by humans. He said that if the world remains
solely focused on the H5N1 strain, we might miss warning
signals about H2 or another unknown virus that could develop
into an epidemic.


9. (C) COMMENT: We are not in a position to judge Guan's
claims that the HKG is resistant to new information about the
prevalence of H5N1 in China out of concern for PRC central
government sensitivities, nor can we assess his claims
against the WHO. But, this well-regarded researcher clearly
feels that some governments and researchers do not take this
threat as seriously as they should and that political
considerations are having an impact on research, funding
(including for his projects),and overall government policies
regarding emerging infectious diseases. END COMMENT.
Marut