HONG KONG GOVERNMENT KICKS OFF PUBLIC DEBATE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 001853

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER
DEPT FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2032
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL CH HK
SUBJECT: HONG KONG GOVERNMENT KICKS OFF PUBLIC DEBATE ON
DEMOCRACY OPTIONS

REF: A. HONG KONG 1832

B. HONG KONG 1534

C. HONG KONG 1777

Classified By: E/P Chief Laurent Charbonnet. Reasons: 1.4(b and d)


1. (C) Summary: The Hong Kong Government released a "green
paper" on July 11 to kick off a three-month public
consultation period on the timeframe and roadmap for the
implementation of universal suffrage for future Chief
Executive (CE) and Legislative Council (Legco) elections.
The HKG's proposal offers the public numerous multiple-choice
options on technical issues including the size of the CE
nominating committee and whether to implement "one man, one
vote" in the Legco elections in one step or in stages. A
democratic lawmaker asserted that the green paper was too
complicated and would "confuse rather than clarify the
situation"; pro-government politicians, on the other hand,
were generally supportive of the government proposal for
clearly laying out all of the questions that needed to be
addressed. One former senior HKG official told us that
Beijing will not consider universal suffrage until 2017 at
the earliest, and will use the consultation process and the
debate over a CE screening mechanism to squeeze the
democrats. End summary.


2. (C) Comment: Faced with skeptical pro-democracy
activists, a public unfamiliar with democratic processes and
pressure from Beijing, the HKG will be hard-pressed to manage
this consultation process to a successful consensus
conclusion. The Government also must prove its sincerity and
objectivity as it simultaneously solicits and molds the
public's views. Further, the pan-democrats must overcome
long-standing divisions and form their own "consensus"
response to the government's green paper. Pro-Beijing
activists likewise will have to prove they are keeping Hong
Kong's -- and not Beijing's -- interests at heart. With
District Council elections looming in November, the
pan-democrats, the government and Beijing may be willing to
postpone the final decision on electoral reform until well
after the election. End comment.

So Many Options, So Little Time
--------------


3. (SBU) The Hong Kong Government released a "green paper"
on July 11 to kick off a three-month public consultation
period on the models, timeframe and roadmap for the
implementation of universal suffrage for future Chief
Executive (CE) and Legislative Council (Legco) elections
(reftel a). Only days before the release of the green paper,
the media speculated that the government would offer the
public a limited number of concrete proposals on what form
universal suffrage might take; several contacts had predicted
to us that the government would offer a maximum of three
"mainstream" options. Instead, the HKG in consultation with
the Commission on Strategic Development (CSD) -- which has
been working on the question of electoral reform since
November 2005 -- submitted a smorgasbord of "options" on key
variables for the direct election of the CE and Legco,
without indicating any preferences.


4. (SBU) The green paper offers, in essence, multiple-choice
options (the "South China Morning Post" calculated that the
public has a total of 486 "possible combinations of answers")
for the implementation of universal suffrage, including:

(1) Size of the CE nominating committee: (a) less than 800
members, (b) 800 members, or (c) 800-1,600 members;

(2) Nomination threshold and total number of CE candidates:
(a) 10 candidates or more, (b) eight candidates at most, or
(c) two to four candidates at most;

(3) Timetable for universal suffrage in CE elections: (a)
2012, (b) 2017, or (c) after 2017;

(4) Roadmap: (a) implementation of universal suffrage for the
CE election should precede that for the Legco election, (b)
implement universal suffrage in both elections in one step,
or (c) implement universal suffrage in stages;

(5) Reform the functional constituencies in the Legco: (1)
replace them with geographical constituencies, (2) retain
them but change the electoral method, or (3) increase the
number of Legco seats reserved for district councils; and

(6) Timetable for universal suffrage in Legco elections: (a)

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a fully elected legislature in 2012, (b) by stages in 2016,
or (c) by stages after 2016.

Mixed Response
--------------


5. (SBU) Press coverage suggests that some members of the
pan-democratic camp were put off by the complexity of
options. Lee Cheuk-yan, General Secretary of the Hong Kong
Confederation of Trade Unions, derided the green paper as "a
jigsaw puzzle for the public." Albert Ho, Chairman of the
Democratic Party, asserted that "the government is trying to
complicate the issue of universal suffrage. It intends to
confuse rather than clarify the situation and make it more
difficult for Hong Kong people to make an informed choice."
The response from pro-Beijing leaders, however, has been
generally positive; Tam Yiu-chung, Vice Chairman of the
pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and
Progress of Hong Kong (DAB),welcomed the paper and said
during a radio interview that the green paper "offered the
public choices and clearly laid out the questions that needed
to be addressed."

Beijing's Influence Growing
--------------


6. (C) Former Chief Secretary Anson Chan told the Consul
General that she believes Beijing will not consider universal
suffrage until 2017 at the earliest, and will use the
consultation process and the debate over a CE screening
mechanism to squeeze the democrats. The central government
may have concluded that their supporters in Hong Kong now
have enough influence and confidence that Beijing can stare
down the opposition, and that most Hong Kong residents won't
really care that much. Chan was pessimistic about the
consultation process, though she still held out some hope
that CE Tsang would seek the "best outcome" for Hong Kong
rather than just spinning the Hong Kong people to get them to
accept an outcome dictated by Beijing. She thought it more
likely, however, that the government would conclude that the
outcome desired by Beijing is in fact the "best outcome" for
Hong Kong.


7. (C) Chan still hopes to influence the molding of a Hong
Kong proposal, and will remain in Hong Kong throughout the
summer to work within the consultation process. She
questioned the government's sincerity in resolving the issue
of political reform, noting Tsang's "status quo" approach to
his government and to the Executive Council (Exco). Chan
worries that the government, rather than seeking to broaden
agreement, will adopt the same "divide and conquer, take it
or leave it" strategy as when they presented their reform
proposals in 2005 (which Legco democrats rejected and
eventually killed). Chan believes that Beijing has decided
to tighten control over Hong Kong; recent speeches by
National People's Congress (NPC) Chairman Wu Bangguo and
President Hu Jintao underscored this message (reftels b, c).
The influence and presence of Beijing's Central Government
Liaison Office (CGLO) is growing in Hong Kong and CGLO
officers are ever-present at public "grassroots" functions
including the campaign meetings for District Council
elections, said Chan.

Building "Consensus" Might Take Time
--------------


8. (C) Former Democratic Party Chairman Martin Lee told the
Consul General that he and other democrats recently met with
Rafael Hui (who served as Chief Secretary until July 1),who
claimed that the government had limited the consultation
period to three months in order to avoid having it underway
during the November 18 District Council elections. But, Hui
said, the government would be in no hurry to come out with a
proposal and that discussions could continue for some time --
especially through the PRC Party Congress; therefore, an
actual HKG proposal might not be released until next year.
The HKG would not tackle Legco reforms until after the 2008
Legco elections, Lee thought, believing that time would be on
the government's side in weakening the democrats.

Government Committed to Progress
--------------


9. (SBU) In a briefing to the diplomatic corps on July 12,
Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam

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reiterated the HKG's position that the upcoming consultation
period served to aggressively pursue progress, and added that
it underscored the HKG's readiness to deal with the democracy

HONG KONG 00001853 003 OF 003


issue. He said that universal suffrage will improve both the
government and the lives of Hong Kong people. The green
paper, said Lam, is actually a distillation of more than 300
proposals put forth by the public and Commission on Strategic
Development since early 2004. Hong Kong has "no experience"
with democracy, but the HKG believes the options for
universal suffrage, consistent with the political realities
of Hong Kong, have been sufficiently developed to put the
question to the public.


10. (SBU) He cautioned, however, that the "critical point" in
the process will be getting a consensus proposal through
Legco. When asked how the public view will be measured,
given the benchmark 60% approval rating for any consensus
model, Lam expressed hope that "(public opinion) polls will
spring up naturally" given that any HKG-sponsored poll would
be widely criticized by the opposition as invalid.
Responding to a series of questions related to the timetable,
Lam endeavored to indicate the HKG's open-mindedness about
universal suffrage, possibly as early as the 2012 CE
election. He added that the government didn't need to wait
until the end of the CE's term to resolve the universal
suffrage issue, but rather, "the sooner the better."
Marut