DISSIDENT SAYS REGIME SEES NO CHOICE BUT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000930

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2017
TAGS: CU PGOV PHUM PINR PREL
SUBJECT: DISSIDENT SAYS REGIME SEES NO CHOICE BUT TO
INSTITUTE SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC REFORMS


Classified By: COM: Michael E. Parmly: For reasons 1.4 b/d


1. (C) SUMMARY: Leading dissident Rene Gomez Manzano
believes that Raul Castro has a government team in place that
is committed to instituting meaningful economic reforms. He
also believes that Fidel is no longer a factor in policy
decisions. Gomez thinks Raul and his allies in the
government see that the economy is in catastrophic condition
and that they need to take significant measures to ensure the
availability of basic goods. In regards to the upcoming
elections he believes that the government will manipulate the
process to ensure its own continuation. He thinks efforts by
other dissident leaders to demand that the elections offer a
referendum on the current system of government lack popular
support. End Summary.



2. (SBU) In a conversation with COM noted dissident lawyer
and released political prisoner Rene Gomez Manzano said that
Fidel Castro is no longer a factor in Cuban politics and that
Raul Castro intends to push economic reforms. Gomez is a
prominent attorney who had defended many dissidents before
joining the opposition himself in the 1990"s. He is a leader
of the Assembly to Promote Civil Society and has written a
number of articles about the Cuban legal system. He
previously served three years in prison for signing a
document criticizing the Communist Party. More recently he
was released on February 8, 2007 after being in jail for a
year and a half without ever being charged. (His pleas that
holding a person for more than six months without a charge is
a violation of Cuba's Penal Code fell upon deaf ears).



3. (C) Gomez said he has no doubts that Raul Castro means to
take substantive measures to develop the economy, including
reforms of private property laws and measures to entice
foreign investment. He believes that Raul is putting
together a government team that is committed to these
efforts. He is certain that Raul's people realize that the
economy is a complete catastrophe and see no alternative
other than instituting significant reforms. Gomez believes
that this leadership group has no fears that creating
opportunities will lead to an uncontrollable wave of rising
expectations that could result in something like the Gobachov
era Soviet collapse. The key to maintaining control is
providing sufficient basic goods and services. Gomez views
Raul's July 26th speech as indicating a policy move towards
accomplishing that goal. He thought that the article
published by Fidel Castro immediately after Raul's speech
calling any loosening of the socialist economy "poison"
represented the position of hard-liners in the regime who
have already lost the debate.




4. (C) Gomez also discussed the upcoming elections. He
stated that the municipal elections scheduled to be held on
October 21 will be the first time that local committees can
nominate multiple candidates. As many as 8 candidates can be
proposed for each seat. While this is an opportunity for
youth, women's and other the grassroots organizations to have
more impact on local matters, Gomez pointed out that only
party militants attend the meetings that are tasked with
nominating candidates and the regime can easily manipulate
the results. He stated that the elections are a way for the
regime to perpetuate itself and consolidate Raul's position.
However, he dismissed as lacking in public support efforts by
other prominent dissidents (Paya, Chaviano, Farinas) to show
the fraudulent nature of the process by demanding that
citizens should have a referendum on the system of government.



5. (C) Comment: What should the posture be towards the
upcoming elections and whether the promises of economic
reforms under Raul's administration have any credibility are
two of the most polemical issues confronting all Cubans, but
especially the opposition. While some dissidents think
shining a spotlight on the elections will put into focus the

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illegitimacy of the regime, Gomez does not see this issue as
having much resonance with the general public. With regards
to the economy, many key dissidents, such as Martha Beatriz
Roque, think that there is no way that the regime will risk
any loosening of control of the economy, and that Raul is
deliberately making false promises to lull the population
into inactivity. On the other hand, Gomez believes that the
government has accepted economic reforms as an inevitability.
These widely differing interpretations of the regime's
actions within the opposition have resulted in a great
diversity of opinions as to how the dissidents should
respond. At the same time we are encouraged by the vibrancy
of genuine Cuban democracy that such diversity reflects. The
challenge is for dissidents to keep in mind what unites them-
release of political prisoners, freedom of expression and
organization- above and beyond where they differ among
themselves.




PARMLY