Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07HAVANA668
2007-07-12 14:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
US Interests Section Havana
Cable title:  

CUBA: TWO PATHS TO REGIME CHANGE

Tags:  PINS PGOV KDEM CU 
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FM USINT HAVANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1972
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 0152
RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN 0132
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUESDM/JTLO MIAMI FL
RUCOGCA/COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY CU
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 000668 

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SUBJECT: CUBA: TWO PATHS TO REGIME CHANGE

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Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Buddy Williams; Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 000668

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SUBJECT: CUBA: TWO PATHS TO REGIME CHANGE

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Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Buddy Williams; Reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Cuba's two most prominent dissident leaders,
Martha Beatriz Roque (MBR) and Oswaldo Paya, have described
to us their hopes and plans for transforming the Cuban
regime, a process that neither of them claims to be able to
make happen in the short term. MBR sees her own role as a
catalyst to put increasing numbers of Cubans on the streets
to protest against significant examples of injustice. The
regime, she says, is deathly afraid of large numbers of
people in the streets not under its own control. Paya
envisions a more evolutionary change, building upon the
network he established with the Varela Project. He recently
published a roadmap called "Forum for All Cubans" that
envisions a dialogue between representatives of civil society
and the regime--not to negotiate power sharing, but rather to
chart a future democratic course. The ruling palace needs to
crumble more to provide an incentive for regime
participation; but meanwhile, Paya's Christian Liberation
Movement (MCL) is active spreading information to the public
about claiming their universally recognized rights as
citizens. Neither MBR or Paya proposes joining operational
forces, but they have grown to respect one another more and
more over time. They both see a U.S. role in regime change:
MBR wanting more and faster disbursements of cash to mobilize
her forces; and Paya wanting the USG to be a catalyst for
civil society talks with the regime. End Summary.

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MBR: People in the Streets:
--------------


2. (C) In early 2007 MBR told us that she would be removing
herself from the leadership of the Assembly to Promote Civil
Society (APSC),to allow herself some distance from the day
to day of managing that organization's activities and
finances. In February, after the "Independent Library
Congress," that the APSC organized, she took a step back and
asked herself: "Is what I'm doing busy-work or is it really
going to change the regime?" She concluded that she would
delegate the "busy-work" of the APSC to Felix Bonne and Rene
Gomez Manzano, and dedicate herself to bigger-picture issues

and ultimately, a plan to put thousands of Cubans into the
streets.


3. (C) Thus far MBR has done some regular publishing of
communiques and articles critical of the regime, set up a
web-site, led a press conference to commemorate the 10th
anniversary of the dissident manifesto called "The Country
Belongs to All of Us," and mobilized her APSC network around
certain targeted causes. Three specific cases motivated MBR
to spring into action in the last few months: (1) Traveling
to Placetas, in Villa Clara province last weekend to fight
for recently released political prisoner Jorge Luis Perez
Antunez to obtain housing; (2) leading a caravan of
dissidents to Camaguey last month to submit a petition of
Habeas Corpus in the case of a political prisoner whose
sentence was prolonged without due process; and (3)
organizing a street demonstration in front of a downtown
Havana court to protest the re-arrest, on a fake charge, of a
political prisoner who had recently been released.


4. (C) MBR told us that she learned valuable lessons from
each deployment. She went ahead with the Villa Clara trip
without waiting for the APSC to formally get involved, but
had mobilized her network directly in the central-Cuban
province. She observed that police and state security were
tough but deferent towards her because she was working within
the system's own rules and because she drew a sympathetic
crowd. She obtained similar results in the Camaguey trip,
but brought Rene Gomez Manzano along, since he is the APSC's
best lawyer. Again, she succeeded in putting local followers
of hers into the streets, a factor that she believes got her
through the court-house's door with the Habeas Corpus
petition. She told us that in preparation for the Havana
courtroom protest, two months ago, she had mobilized at least
a hundred Cubans, and in a way that she knew the GOC would
capture with telephone intercepts. The regime dismissed the
case on the eve of the hearing, which MBR believes was a
direct consequence of her mobilization.


5. (C) MBR recognizes that she needs to expand her following
to be able to deploy more than hundreds at a time, and
regrets that she has not yet teamed up with any of the
dissident youth organizations. On the other hand, she claims

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to have gained considerable name and face recognition
throughout the country, and believes that she can build
numbers if/when events unfold to provide new protest
opportunities. Her bottom line is that the regime is
sensitive to people power, and that the absence of large
street protests has been a key factor contributing to Raul
Castro's staying power.

--------------
Paya: Cubans Will Claim Their Rights:
--------------


6. (C) Oswaldo Paya takes a more evolutionary approach, but
one that also starts with a large-scale mobilization. The
starting point is the constituency the MCL built when it
obtained tens of thousands of signatures for the Varela
Project, which was a petition to request a review of the form
of government, according to provisions in the existing
constitution. Fidel Castro nixed the Varela Project in 2003,
decreeing that Cuba's socialism was unalterable and
permanent; however, the MCL did not wither away. Last year
the MCL claims to have involved 12,000 Cubans in a follow-up
project to create a draft constitution and road map for a
democratic transition, called "Program for All Cubans."


7. (C) At the end of June, 2007, Paya and his deputy, Minervo
Lazaro Chiret, drafted an updated version of the "Program for
All Cubans," dubbed the "Forum for All Cubans." Both
documents outline a set of basic, non-negotiable rights to
which all Cubans are entitled, and urge a negotiation between
representatives of civil society and the current (Castro
rubber stamp) National Assembly to begin the process of
constitutional reform. Expecting that the (Castro rubber
stamp) Assembly will not agree to participate, Paya and the
MCL will fan out around the island and spread the word about
claiming citizens' rights. Paya believes that the message
will have great resonance, since all Cubans chafe at
restrictions of their rights to live where they want, travel,
open a small business, stay at a hotel, or more generally,
enjoy the same rights that any foreigner has when he visits
Cuba.


8. (C) Paya and Lazaro Chiret also believe that a message
based on citizens rights will have added appeal because of
island-wide pent-up expectations for change that have been
unmet since Fidel Castro's incapacitation almost a year ago.
They acknowledge that Castro's death will hasten the collapse
of the ruling "palace," but don't want to sit on their hands
doing nothing until that happens.

--------------
Role for the USG:
--------------


9. (C) Both MBR and Paya believe the USG is on the right side
of the coming transition, and are satisifed with public
statements by the President, the Secretary and others
regarding the inevitability of change, the illegitimacy of a
Castro-brother succession, and the responsibility of Cubans
themselves to lead the transition. Operationally, MBR wants
USG support in the form of continued public exhortations for
democracy and release of political prisoners, and also cash.
For example, she said her last trip to Villa Clara cost her
250 dollars to hire a car and driver. Renting a car would
have cost half as much but ordinary Cubans are not allowed to
rent cars. Multiply times the numbers of Cubans to be
mobilized in any given demonstration, calculate bus and taxi
fares, plus food, and aid to dissidents' families, and the
costs add up. She has told us frequently that her sources of
cash from Miami have been both inconsistent and insufficient.


10. (C) Paya, who gets his cash quietly from NDI, thank you,
wants the USG to find a formula to engage the regime. He
said he was usually misunderstood on the subject of
engagement, and rejects the Spanish approach, which serves to
buttress the regime at the expense of the democratic
opposition. Recognizing that the USG would not legitimize
Raul Castro's rule, Paya suggests a formula whereby the USG
would agree to talk to the GOC about purely bilateral issues
(say, drug trafficking, migration, Guantanamo),but on the
condition that the GOC open simultaneous talks with the
democratic opposition. Paya would not seek such talks with
the regime to achieve any kind of power sharing, but rather
negotiate Cuba's future, according to the "Program for All
Cubans" roadmap. Paya does not believe the regime would

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accept such terms from either the USG or the democratic
opposition, but thinks the idea of a USG proposal, ANY
proposal, would electrify the dissident movement and the
population at large, while also pulling the rug out from
under the regime's "Blame America First" argument and
constituency.

--------------
Comment:
--------------


11. (C) MBR and Paya have developed a greater respect for one
another, and no longer waste needless energy competing for
top billing among the dissident movement. Both are reference
points for the entire opposition; groups who visit Havana
from the interior will commonly be signers of the Varela
Project and also participants in the APSC. MBR and Paya's
visions and plans are complementary, although not
coordinated. MBR is more flashy, and believes that the
country is full of dry kindling and firewood that need
sparks. Paya, on the other hand, wants to ploddingly take
apart the totalitarian structure brick by brick and then
rebuild a democratic society on its grave. Unfortunately,
neither has yet obtained critical mass to bring down the
regime in the short term. Our expectation is that the
still-missing ingredient is Fidel Castro's funeral.
WILLIAMS