CLAIMS OF CUBAN COMMUNIST PERESTROIKA LITE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000572

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2017
TAGS: ECON KDEM CU
SUBJECT: CLAIMS OF CUBAN COMMUNIST PERESTROIKA LITE


Classified By: COM Michael Parmly; Reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Dissident Economist Oscar Espinosa Chepe handed us an
article written by retired GOC diplomat and academician Pedro
Campos Santos on the subject of reform of Cuba's
economy--written by and for communists as a
"food-for-thought" paper. The point of departure for the
article was Raul Castro's remarks at the late December, 2006
National Assembly (ANPP) meetings, at which the interim
dictator himself and selected speakers publicly complained
about corruption, poor transportation, poor housing and other
glaring Cuban problems. The author observes that the
officially-announced rate of CY2006 GDP growth of 12.5
percent "doesn't say much about the economic reality" of most
Cuban people.


2. (SBU) Some other points Campos Santos makes are in the
direction of change, albeit within an overall "revolutionary"
or communist framework:

-- Housing, tourism and sugar had low productivity; all
performed below expectations;
-- Companies need to operate with input from workers, who
should be given more responsibility for management.
Bureaucrats get in the way;
-- More discipline alone will not improve productivity;
salaries need to be based on output;
-- Rigorous debate should be encouraged before making
business (or other) decisions;
-- The military and parts of the agricultural sector have had
success with less bureaucratic business models;
-- The Communist party, the GOC, state enterprises, and mass
organizations overlap too much with one another.


3. (SBU) On the other hand, Campos Santos' writing includes
plenty of Fidel Castro hero worship, and exhortations to keep
the revolution's flame alive. Suggested reforms are not to
be understood as a means to opening the door to
"counter-revolutionary plans, such as the Varela Project, or
pseudo-democratic nonsense that aims to restore
capitalism..." People (like USINT staff) who would see
fudging of statistics in the 12.5 percent growth figure are
described as "the enemy," or "imperialists." He quotes Raul
Castro saying: "We're tired of phony justifications in this
revolution; the revolution does not lie."


4. (C) COMMENT: Chepe sees Campos Santos' piece as an
example of ferment within the nomenklatura, similar to what
we saw when artists and intellectuals zapped nasty e-mails
back and forth last November to protest the reappearance of
figures that harshly suppressed free expression in the 1960s
and 70s. Chepe told us the document typifies what he termed
as "widespread disillusionment" within the party. However,
while Chepe failed to call attention to it, and although some
of Campos Santos' observations about the failings of the
Cuban economy have merit, he starts from the premise that
communism can be improved upon to make life better for most
Cubans. Chepe sees this as having to include throwaway lines
that permit the article to be published in the first place.
That is a fair point: Without the throwaway lines Campos
Santos could be writing his next article from jail. On the
other hand, Campos Santos' reasoning is flawed by taking Raul
Castro at his word: The only way "The revolution does not
lie" can ever make sense is if you know that the person
uttering that phrase is lying.
PARMLY