CUBA: KEY DISSIDENTS' EXTERNAL NETWORKING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000526

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2017
TAGS: PREL KDEM PHUM CU EUN
SUBJECT: CUBA: KEY DISSIDENTS' EXTERNAL NETWORKING

REF: A. HAVANA 488


B. HAVANA 503

HAVANA 00000526 001.3 OF 002


Classified By: COM Michael E. Parmly; reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Dissident leaders Vladimiro Roca, Martha Beatriz Roque
(MBR),and Oswaldo Paya spoke at length this week to Pol-Econ
Counselor about their off-island networking, with most
emphasis on Europeans and the exile Cuban community in the
USA. Highlights follow:

-- Unity for Liberty document: Roca was pleased with the
large number of signatures the document was gaining on the
island, and pointed out that it would stay open for more
signatures longer than the one month originally planned. Off
the island, Roca was concerned that "Miami" and Europe were
trying to exert influence or interfere with the forging of
the opposition's unity. He said that exile groups in the USA
were overly sensitive about the document's phrasing on
political prisoners, objecting to the term "peaceful" as a
qualifier, which was put into the text by Oswaldo Paya.
Europeans, said Roca, were interpreting the document as a way
to achieve dissident unity with Paya as the leader. Roca did
not blame Paya for this, nor has Paya himself said anything
remotely resembling a play for leadership; but that is the
message Roca is hearing from Europeans.

-- Letter to EU: Roca showed us the text of a letter the
democratic opposition had planned to send to the EU, in
advance of COLAT and ministerial level meetings regarding the
EU common position on Cuba (Ref B). MBR had prepared this
draft, but told us May 25 that Paya was objecting to the text
because it did not use the same language as the Unity
Document regarding "peaceful" political prisoners. MBR
described the discussion with Paya as respectful, but with a
sharp difference of opinion. They are working to bridge the
gap, but understand that on the one hand Paya will resist
signing the text without a change, but on the other hand much
of the rest of the opposition will sign and want to send it
as is, with or without Paya's signature.

-- MBR Nobel Prize: MBR is a nominee for the Nobel Peace
Prize, with her original support coming from French
Parliamentarian Francoise Hostelier, and additional help from
Spanish Socialists in the Canary Islands. It doesn't hurt
that MBR has a cousin that lives in the Canary Islands. She
has exchanged e-mail this week with European Parliament
member Jose Ribeiro e Costa on this subject, and also on the
subject of Hugo Chavez abridging free speech by shutting down
the RCTV network.

-- Roca/Senator Menendez: Vladimiro Roca is in touch with
Senator Robert Menendez (D/NJ) about setting up a live
video-conference probably in mid to late June. USINT would
host and facilitate from this end; the objectives, according
to Roca would be to: (1) Seek more support for the Cuban
opposition within the Democratic party; and (2) make specific
requests for material assistance. Roca understood that this
event would be made transparent to the Florida Republican
Cuban-American congressmen and Senator, even if they were not
participating in it. Roca said he expected that they would
understand his attempt to broaden U.S. political support for
the democratic opposition on the island.

-- Foreign Visitors: As we reported ref A, there has been no
serious dissident reach-back to the Spanish embassy's
outreach to the opposition in advance of the Spanish foreign
ministry's visit next week to discuss human rights with the
GOC. Ditto for the visit May 24-25 of the Canadian deputy
foreign minister. For the unofficial U.S. congressional
delegation that is visiting during the week of May 28, USINT
will seek to work in side excursions to dissidents' homes or
to another venue where the congresspeople can hear opposition
viewpoints.

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COMMENT AND ANALYSIS:
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2. (C) Unity for Liberty: Opposition unity is significant,
and sends a message to the world and to the Cuban regime that
the dissident movement has matured. But the unity is also
fragile, and throws together individuals who have a history
of personality conflicts and rivalries and also bona-fide
political differences. We hope Paya and the others can find

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a formula for how to qualify (or not) "political prisoners"
in their letter to the EU. This is an emotional issue for
Paya, whose Christian Liberation Movement believes firmly in
peaceful civil disobedience, but also for NGOs and exiles in
Miami, who include former political prisoners who took part
in armed resistance to the Castro dictatorship in the 1960s.
In our own contact work with dissidents and with exile groups
we go out of our way to be inclusive, urging them (1) to
focus on what unites them rather than what divides them; and
(2) to leave political differences to be hammered out later,
after they all work together now to change the regime.


3. (C) Video-Conferences as Examples: Two recent
videoconferences showed both unifying and divisive trends
both on and off the island. For the one we organized between
Liberal Parties in Cuba and the International Liberal
Conference in Cancun (April 29),we found ourselves in the
middle of an argument among Cubans regarding who was a
bona-fide Liberal. We went on the air with this unresolved,
were able to paper it over and still make a favorable impact
with the International Liberals, and continued afterwards to
urge the feuding parties on the Island to reconcile. The
videoconference we organized for Damas de Blanco on Mothers
Day ran into some elbow-throwing among groups in Miami, and a
boycott by prominent Dama Miriam Leyva in Havana, who objects
to NGOs in Miami that she considers "too right wing." Once
again, the event was immensely successful for all those who
participated, which we see as a much more important message
than the bickering behind the scenes.


4. (C) Euros: Europeans (and Canadians) with few exceptions
tend to accept the stereotype, advanced actively by the
regime, that exile Cubans in Miami are right-wing extremists.
For this reason, they largely line up behind Oswaldo Paya,
whose differences with SOME parts of the U.S. exile community
reinforce their view that he is the opposition horse they
should bet on. Ironically, Spain's mishandling of the
early-April visit by FonMin Moratinos has had the effect of
pushing Paya closer to the rest of the opposition, and closer
to Miami.


5. (C) Conclusion: It is a gross oversimplification to
identify Paya with Europe and MBR with Miami. The former has
many trusted contacts (and relatives) in Miami, just as the
latter does with Europe. However, there is a slight fault
line in Cuba that roughly matches the Europe/Miami divide,
and this is a problem for opposition unity. The Cuban regime
will seek to exploit and magnify any divisions it finds in
the opposition, as it has done for years. Our message, which
we think bears repeating over and over with all our
interlocutors -- dissidents, third-country diplomats, media,
CODELs, NGOs -- is that opposition feuding helps the regime,
and perpetuates totalitarian rule. The dissidents are in a
much better place than they were as recently as three months
ago, but we want to help them build on that new-found
position, rather than fall back into bickering. We have
recently had highly productive contacts with prominent exiles
in Miami and, as recorded above, with their co-religionists
on the island. We don't view this as mission impossible.
PARMLY