Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07HAVANA362
2007-04-13 16:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
US Interests Section Havana
Cable title:  

REPRESSION IN CUBA DECLINING? DON'T BELIEVE IT.

Tags:  PHUM KDEM SOCI CU 
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VZCZCXRO4623
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131623Z APR 07
FM USINT HAVANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1591
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZJ/HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0044
RUEHSL/AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA PRIORITY
RUEHMC/AMCONSUL MONTERREY PRIORITY 0032
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUESDM/JTLO MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 0094
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HAVANA 000362 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR WHA/FO, WHA/CCA, AND DRL
STATE ALSO FOR INSPECTOR GENERAL KRONGARD
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FISK, SENIOR DIRECTOR KOZAK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017
TAGS: PHUM KDEM SOCI CU
SUBJECT: REPRESSION IN CUBA DECLINING? DON'T BELIEVE IT.


HAVANA 00000362 001.3 OF 004


Classified By: Human Rights Officer Greg Wiegand for Reason 1.4(d).

The following end-of-tour evaluation of the current human
rights situation was prepared entirely by Political Officer
Greg Wiegand, winner of the 2006 Warren Christopher Award.
His views as expressed here represent the entire USINT
community.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HAVANA 000362

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR WHA/FO, WHA/CCA, AND DRL
STATE ALSO FOR INSPECTOR GENERAL KRONGARD
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FISK, SENIOR DIRECTOR KOZAK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017
TAGS: PHUM KDEM SOCI CU
SUBJECT: REPRESSION IN CUBA DECLINING? DON'T BELIEVE IT.


HAVANA 00000362 001.3 OF 004


Classified By: Human Rights Officer Greg Wiegand for Reason 1.4(d).

The following end-of-tour evaluation of the current human
rights situation was prepared entirely by Political Officer
Greg Wiegand, winner of the 2006 Warren Christopher Award.
His views as expressed here represent the entire USINT
community.


1. (C) Summary: In the eight months since Fidel Castro
"delegated" power to Raul, the Cuban Government has managed
to maintain and even broaden the level of repression against
dissidents, while reducing the number of political prisoners.
The GOC has succeeded in convincing some observers that
reform is already underway; witness the recent
political-prisoner releases, a dearth of news reports on
harassment of top-tier dissidents, and hints dropped by
regime insiders that once the Comandante marches into
history, necessary economic reforms will occur. In reality,
Cuban authorities continue to snuff out any public
demonstrations of independent thought, movement or
organization. There has been a sharp increase in detentions
of dissidents; many are threatened during interrogations.
The police presence in Havana and other big cities has
increased, and the treatment of political prisoners has
worsened. Pressure on journalists, both Cubans and
foreigners, has intensified. Nevertheless, Cubans have
started to lose fear about speaking out against the regime.
End Summary.


2. (C) The Cuban Government has apparently convinced a number
of countries, especially those with on-island investments, to
accept its empty promises of reform and conclude that the
human rights situation in Cuba is improving. The reality
suggests otherwise; nations based on the rule of law should
note that since July 31, 2006, when the GOC issued its
"proclamation" on succession, the regime has subtly changed
its repressive tactics. The goal is to avoid
headline-generating incidents such as violent "acts of
repudiation" or the imprisonment of first-tier dissidents,
while simultaneously broadening the repressive base by

detaining, intimidating or otherwise sidelining second- and
third-tier dissidents.

POLITICAL-PRISONERS RELEASES
--------------


3. (C) Regime apologists are quick to note that the GOC has
significantly reduced the number of documented political
prisoners and detainees since the announcement of Fidel's
incapacitation. The current number stands at 280, down from
316 in early July 2006. (Note: This figure refers only to
the number of cases documented by Elizardo Sanchez's Cuban
Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation. The
true number of Cubans convicted of political crimes, plus
dissidents convicted of "dangerousness" or a common crime,
almost certainly exceeds 1,000, and could easily be several
times higher. End Note.) Ironically, the increasingly
unified call - on island and off -- to "free the political
prisoners" has resulted in a situation in which the GOC seeks
to generate good will for occasionally freeing a prisoner
from one of the regime's hellish prisons. (Among the most
well-known prisoners freed during Raul-rule are Rene Gomez
Manzano and Hector Palacios, the latter one of 75 peaceful
activists rounded up in the notorious "Black Spring"
crackdown of 2003.)

INCREASE IN DETENTIONS, INTIMIDATION
--------------


4. (C) While freeing a number of political prisoners, many of
whom were already nearing the end of their sentence, the GOC
has also dramatically stepped up short-term detentions of
activists. Although reliable statistics are unavailable,
human rights groups across the country point to an
unmistakable increase in detentions, most lasting only hours,
and many aimed at young activists. The latter may be in
response to a November 24, 2006 opposition youth forum that
brought together 63 activists and three main youth groups.

HAVANA 00000362 002.3 OF 004


In the weeks that followed, the GOC detained, interrogated
and threatened dozens of participants. Some were summoned to
a police station and, after arrival, were received not by the
National Revolutionary Police (PNR),but by the political
police (State Security). Violence during interrogations was
rare but did occur, as with the beating and injury of Luis
Esteban Espinosa. State Security continued to play emotional
hardball -- threatening, for instance, to strip activists of
custody of their young children, and targeting dissidents'
relatives with selective law enforcement. For example,
police detained the mother of youth activist Ahmed Rodriguez
Albacia and accused her of planning to illegally resell, at a
profit, a belt she had just purchased.

GREATER POLICE PRESENCE, MORE FINES FOR PEDDLERS
-------------- ---


5. (C) The Havana police presence, uniformed and otherwise,
has swelled noticeably since last summer, and our contacts
report a similar situation in other big cities, including
Santiago. Some of our contacts, including Elsa Morejon of
the Lawton Human Rights Foundation, say there has also been
an increase in fines and prosecutions involving ordinary
Cubans who cut legal corners to eke out a living. Unlicensed
vendors of soft drinks have been targeted, as have car owners
who rent out their vehicle illegally. Meanwhile, at the
neighborhood level, the GOC-directed mass communist
organizations have maintained their imposing presence.
During last September's summit of the Non-Aligned Movement,
Communist Party officials in Havana went door to door to find
out who lives where, identify "illegal" residents and - as
far as the GOC is concerned - dispel any doubt that the
regime can exercise its power as heavy-handedly as ever.

NEW PRESSURE ON POLITICAL PRISONERS
--------------


6. (C) The regime also appears to have tightened prison
conditions, at least for political prisoners. In January,
without explanation, the GOC informed Victor Arroyo Carmona,
one of 59 75ers who remain behind bars, that his prison
visits were being reduced from once every three months to
once every four or five months. Prosecutors indicted another
jailed 75er, Orlando Zapata Tamayo, for disorder and
disrespect; he yelled "Down With Fidel" at his prison. The
prosecutors are seeking 15 more years. Political prisoner
Oscar Elias Biscet got a warning when three prison guards
positioned themselves in front of him and dealt a tremendous
beating to another prisoner, handcuffed at the time. (Note:
Tellingly, none of the political prisoners released since
last summer have belonged to Oswaldo Paya's Christian
Liberation Movement. The MCL is arguably Cuba's most
influential pro-democracy organization. End Note.)

LEANING ON JOURNALISTS, FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC
--------------


7. (C) The GOC's effective PNGing of a handful of foreign
correspondents in February generated (predictably) broad
media coverage, and brought unwanted attention to the GOC's
practice of tweaking the message any way it can. Meanwhile,
the regime kept up its pressure on independent (Cuban)
journalists. According to the Free Expression Foundation,
the level of GOC pressure on independent journalists in the
first quarter of this year was largely unchanged from the
preceding quarter. In January, State Security effectively
limited journalist Jose Manuel Caraballo to house arrest, and
told imprisoned journalist Juan Carlos Herrera Acosta,
"People who behave like you can end up in their cell either
hanged or with their neck slashed." In February, journalist
Lisette Bravo was detained, intimidated and threatened after
she reported on an alleged prison uprising. The same month,
journalist Jorge Oliveira Castillo obeyed a summons and
showed up at a courthouse flanked by concerned U.S., Canadian
and Swedish diplomats. The court session was called off.

RANCHUELO BEATINGS LEAD TO PULLBACK
--------------

HAVANA 00000362 003.3 OF 004




8. (C) The regime has shown a keen ability to back away from
rights violations that generate headlines. Last October 10
in Villa Clara province, communist militants savagely beat
two human rights activists from Ranchuelo, after the husband
and wife left a peaceful dissident gathering. Digital photos
of their black-and-blue faces circulated worldwide, including
in our December briefing to visiting U.S. Congressmen.
Shortly thereafter, dissidents in Villa Clara reported a
sharp drop in violent incidents involving dissidents. (Note:
A videotape of the couple's beating was allegedly recorded,
but no such footage has ever surfaced. The drop-off in "acts
of repudiations" and other regime-directed assaults in Villa
Clara may reflect GOC concern over the alleged recording.
End Note.) Meanwhile, fallout over the Ranchuelo beating
apparently triggered a purge within State Security's Villa
Clara ranks. A number of operatives were apparently
suspended or forced into retirement.

GROWING DISSENT, PEOPLE LOSING FEAR
--------------


9. (C) Fear continues to permeate Cuban society, due mainly
to the massive political-police presence and an island-wide
network of informants. However, there is evidence that
Cubans are losing fear of publicly criticizing the GOC. Said
Guillermo Farinas, who carried out a lengthy hunger strike
for internet access: "People are losing their fear to speak
out against the regime. This was unthinkable five years ago.
Back then, if you were at a market and you criticized the
government, the militants or military people would hear, and
you'd be in trouble. Now, the militants and the military
folks hear that and agree, or even complain themselves."
Oswaldo Paya, MCL chief and founder of the Varela Project,
said power in Cuba has long been above the law; that people
not only have lacked their basic rights, but not even been
aware of their rights. However, he said, the situation is
changing. The MCL is educating people about their rights
under the slogan, "All Cubans, All Siblings, Freedom Now."
As Cubans learn more about their rights, Paya said, they are
becoming less and less willing to continue living without
them.

LADIES IN WHITE
--------------


10. (C) Several leading "Ladies in White" also believe that
Cubans are losing their fear. Laura Pollan noted that public
expressions of support for the "Damas" - rare and very
dangerous in previous years - have become commonplace. Since
Fidel's incapacitation was announced, the Ladies in White
have likely generated more expressions of support from
Cubans, and more sleepless nights for State Security agents,
than any other human rights organization. (Note: The Ladies
say State Security recently stepped up its vigilance. On
February 6, 10 State Security agents followed three Damas as
they walked through town. End Note.) The Damas were the
object of an "act of repudiation" during their march through
Havana on March 18. The incident was captured on video by
CNN.

HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS DEFIANT
--------------


11. (C) Some pro-democracy organizations have laid low since
the "succession," fearful that a regime nervous about its
survival would not hesitate to carry out mass imprisonments
of active dissidents. However, many other groups have
remained active. Despite regime sabotage, 50 people
affiliated with Martha Beatriz Roque's Assembly to Promote
Civil Society gathered February 22 to take part in an event
marking the end of a "Congress" of independent librarians.
Paya's MCL went to great lengths to encourage members of the
UN Human Rights Council to introduce a resolution calling on
the GOC to release political prisoners. Angel Pablo
Polanco's National Constitutionalist Alliance issued a
similar appeal. Youth groups such as Edgard Lopez Moreno's
Marti Youth Coalition, Ahmed Rodriguez's Young People Against

HAVANA 00000362 004.3 OF 004


Censorship and Nestor Rodriguez Lobaina's Cuban Youth
Movement for Democracy withstood intense State Security
harassment to take part in pro-democracy events, including a
videoconference that linked them with former Slovak activists
who took part in the 1989 "Velvet Revolution."

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) True, meaningful and comprehensive reform may well be
just around the corner -- just don't expect it to come from
the Castro-led Cuban Government. The regime does not have
the support of its own people, who have gone five decades
without consultation in the form of free elections. That
said, we do not expect to see massive street demonstrations
anytime soon, because the Cuban people are still very fearful
of regime retaliation. Although the police state continues
to chug right along, the public is confused about whether
Fidel or Raul Castro is calling the shots, and the regime is
losing some of its grip over an increasingly poor, restless
and desperate population. The Cuban people are not fooled by
the regime's public image of itself, and could take to the
streets if the regime makes a major mis-step.
PARMLY